16938 Nevisway St · Houston, TX 77084

$199,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1981 6,403 sqft lot $126/sqft · 14% below area Est $232k · 14% under $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This gorgeous home checks all your boxes: formal living and dining, family room space ample enough to accommodate everyone. And that's only the start considering the new granite counters, walk-in closet, warm fireplace, breakfast bar, new appliances, new lighting and plumbing fixtures, and elevated ceilings. You ll love your HUGE covered patio out back. With fresh paint and new flooring to boot, this one truly sparkles.

Key facts

• Warm grand fireplace
• Elevated ceilings
• Granite countertops

Tags

• FORMAL LIVING AND DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• WARM GRAND FIREPLACE
• ELEVATED CEILINGS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosures and municipal utility district disclosure available
• HOA & community: Glencairn Community Association; Annual association fee of $375 (covers common areas)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1981; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 15x16; Bedroom (first floor) — 12x14; Bedroom (first floor) — 10x11
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lieder El (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,768 of 4,322 statewide, top 65%, 822 students, 89% FRL); Watkins Middle (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 1,473 students, 80% FRL); Cypress Lakes H S (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 3,179 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 505 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,170 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,024
• List price: $199,990
• Delta: -13.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4751 Cairnvillage St	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,592 (+0%)	1mo	$229,900	$144	90
4714 Glenvillage St	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,592 (+0%)	1mo	$240,000	$151	89
16722 Moary Firth Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-7%)	2mo	$232,490	$157	71
5114 Santrey Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-2%)	0mo	$240,000	$155	68
4307 Glennale Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (+1%)	1mo	$251,000	$157	65
17714 Delta Springs Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,707 (+8%)	1mo	$282,000	$165	61
16426 Moary Firth Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-4%)	1mo	$240,000	$157	61
16723 Kieth Harrow Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,749 (+10%)	1mo	$269,000	$154	60
16718 Nicole Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+12%)	2mo	$275,000	$155	60
16519 Gaeldom Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-7%)	0mo	$250,000	$170	59
16530 Moary Firth Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,731 (+9%)	1mo	$229,990	$133	58
5030 W Harrow Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,821 (+15%)	1mo	$250,000	$137	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.4% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,837
• Equity at exit: $44,498

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-41,945
• Equity at exit: $43,579

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77084

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 505
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$464 /mo · $5,571/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,060

Max offer price $184,170

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-33	+0% $-90	+5% $-146	+10% $-203
Rent	-10% $-243	-5% $-166	+0% $-90	+5% $-13	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-39	base $-90	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16803 Royal Mile Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	45d	1	0.29mi
16727 Royal Mile Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1471	$1,561	$1.06	21d	1	0.30mi
16662 Royal Mile Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$3,250	$2.26	20d	1	0.43mi
17310 Kieth Harrow Blvd Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1193	$1,683	$1.41	0d	1	0.58mi
17310 Kieth Harrow Blvd Unit 17343 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1193	$1,723	$1.44	12d	1	0.58mi
17706 Windsor Grove Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2248	$2,900	$1.29	45d	1	0.60mi
17310 Kieth Harrow Blvd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1193	$1,734	$1.45	12d	1	0.63mi
17103 Clay Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1065	$1,479	$1.39	45d	1	0.80mi
16327 Dounreay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,779	$1.04	4d	1	0.84mi
16430 Sheffield Run Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2227	$2,249	$1.01	9d	1	0.87mi
16027 Hidden Acres Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1699	$1,849	$1.09	0d	1	1.10mi
17914 Holly Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,651	$1.10	45d	1	1.11mi
5315 Hazelgrove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,775	$1.14	45d	1	1.11mi
4407 Hickory Grove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,850	$1.24	45d	1	1.22mi
18115 Brooknoll Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,776	$1.05	1d	1	1.28mi
5703 Afton Ridge Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$1,896	$0.86	23d	1	1.29mi
15907 Red Willow Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1744	$1,920	$1.10	45d	1	1.33mi
4614 Cloudmount Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,290	$1.26	4d	1	1.34mi
5926 Clerkenwell Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2119	$2,000	$0.94	45d	1	1.43mi
6013 Queenston Blvd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,200	$1.00	0d	1	1.46mi
6013 Queenston Blvd Unit 6046 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,025	$1.59	14d	1	1.46mi
6013 Queenston Blvd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,251	$1.04	0d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,990 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,990 Pending 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,990 Pending 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Pending 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Pending 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,990 Pending 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $199,990 Pending 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,990 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,990 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,990 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,990 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,990 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,990 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,990 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,990 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    status Active 935-char remark
17. 2026-04-28
    status Pending 935-char remark
18. 2026-04-18
    listed $210,000 Active 935-char remark
19. 2017-01-17
    soldstatus
20. 2017-01-13
    soldstatus Sold 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    This gorgeous home checks all your boxes: formal living and dining, family room space ample enough to accommodate everyone. And that's only the start considering the new granite counters, walk-in closet, warm fireplace, breakfast bar, new appliances, new lighting and plumbing fixtures, and elevated ceilings. You ll love your HUGE covered patio out back. With fresh paint and new flooring to boot, this one truly sparkles.

21. 2016-12-13
    status Pending 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    This gorgeous home checks all your boxes: formal living and dining, family room space ample enough to accommodate everyone. And that's only the start considering the new granite counters, walk-in closet, warm fireplace, breakfast bar, new appliances, new lighting and plumbing fixtures, and elevated ceilings. You ll love your HUGE covered patio out back. With fresh paint and new flooring to boot, this one truly sparkles.

22. 2016-12-06
    status Option Pending 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    This gorgeous home checks all your boxes: formal living and dining, family room space ample enough to accommodate everyone. And that's only the start considering the new granite counters, walk-in closet, warm fireplace, breakfast bar, new appliances, new lighting and plumbing fixtures, and elevated ceilings. You ll love your HUGE covered patio out back. With fresh paint and new flooring to boot, this one truly sparkles.

23. 2016-11-29
    listed $139,900 Active 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    This gorgeous home checks all your boxes: formal living and dining, family room space ample enough to accommodate everyone. And that's only the start considering the new granite counters, walk-in closet, warm fireplace, breakfast bar, new appliances, new lighting and plumbing fixtures, and elevated ceilings. You ll love your HUGE covered patio out back. With fresh paint and new flooring to boot, this one truly sparkles.

24. 2003-12-31
    historical
25. 2003-02-27
    listed $99,500
26. 1988-04-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,571 · $464/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,571 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$5,571
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,342
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,042
• After-tax cash flow: $-33/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 110,217
• Household income: $80,575
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3257.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 22% White 22% Black 16% Asian 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.40%
• Current HPI: 251.8474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+101.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2017-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-01-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-12-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-12-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-11-29 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2003-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-02-27 Listed $99,500 HARMLS
• 1988-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,571 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.