2224 Middlebury Dr SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$375,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,833 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2024 6,534 sqft lot $87/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Just reduced! Beautiful water view home in the highly sought-after Gardens at Waterstone community in Palm Bay. Home is just under 3 years new, no need to wait on a new build. 4 bedroom, 2 bath . Once inside you are welcomed by an inviting open-concept layout enhanced by soaring 9-foot ceilings and abundant natural light. Thoughtfully designed for both comfort and functionality, Features include, newly tiled floors. Granite counter tops. Tiled kitchen backsplash. Ceiling fans in every room. Designer window shades. Enclosed porch with serene water view. Home offers the perfect setting for everyday living and effortless entertaining. Enjoy the ideal blend of modern design of this Charming ho

Key facts

• Newly tiled floors
• Waterfront home
• Granite countertops

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NEWLY TILED FLOORS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILED KITCHEN BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association: Gardens of Waterstone; Association fee $260 quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener; Additional/other parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Faces south
• Construction: Block and concrete construction
• Exterior features: Few trees on the lot; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Electric water heater; Additional kitchen features
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (includes Bedroom 2 and Bedroom 4)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Unfurnished (unit is unfurnished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-638 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (30.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (35.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 759 students, 58% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1123 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,834 (35.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.29%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $165,281
• Equity at exit: $337,830

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $522,166
• Equity at exit: $728,543

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1123
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,438 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,253/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$87
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,246

Max offer price $262,311

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-426	-5% $-532	+0% $-638	+5% $-744	+10% $-850
Rent	-10% $-831	-5% $-734	+0% $-638	+5% $-542	+10% $-445
Rate	-1.0pp $-449	-0.5pp $-543	base $-638	+0.5pp $-735	+1.0pp $-834

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1884 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,000	$1.14	25d	1	0.25mi
3517 Rixford Way SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2562	$2,800	$1.09	25d	1	0.25mi
1566 Criswell Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,400	$1.17	25d	1	0.25mi
1434 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	15d	1	0.26mi
1843 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,200	$1.21	25d	1	0.29mi
1394 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1876	$2,500	$1.33	21d	1	0.30mi
3636 Aberdeen Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	21d	1	0.44mi
1783 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2207	$2,100	$0.95	25d	1	0.45mi
925 Dugan Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	15d	1	0.47mi
1496 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2187	$2,440	$1.12	16d	1	0.62mi
2073 Farmhouse Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,133	$1.17	25d	1	0.74mi
1046 Grantham Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.5	2405	$3,100	$1.29	25d	1	0.74mi
1063 Grantham Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	25d	1	0.74mi
1453 Santa Anna St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,500	$1.25	16d	1	0.82mi
2183 Farmhouse Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,000	$1.19	25d	1	0.83mi
1213 Waterford St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,000	$1.18	25d	1	1.11mi
3004 Suntan Ct SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2388	$2,900	$1.21	25d	1	1.20mi
2877 Palisades Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,150	$1.09	21d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $87 · $1,044/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $375,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $375,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $375,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $375,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $375,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $375,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $375,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $375,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $375,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-05-23
    price $375,000
17. 2026-02-25
    listed $390,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,253 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,253 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$4,253
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,341
• − Management: −$2,341
• − HOA: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$14,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,482
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $375,000 SCMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $390,000 SCMLS

Property tax history

+156.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,253 · +333.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.