386 S La Canada Dr Unit C · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$99,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1964 $410/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bright and cheerful! Southwest colors welcome your southwest decor. (If that's not your style, the owner is offering to paint per your request.) The home offers tile throughout, new double pane windows, newer kitchen appliances and a brand new HVAC and thermostat. The HOA takes care of water, sewer and garbage, repairs or replaces the roof, HVAC and water heater, does all outside painting, repairs and maintenance of the exterior beyond your patios., plus more! Original front door and screen also maintained by HOA. Pool just on the next block, an easy walk as well as the laundry facility with outdoor lines for that fresh smell and feel to your laundry! A walking trail nearby as well as parks and shuffleboard!

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Tile flooring
• Dual pane windows

Tags

• EAST FACING FRONT PATIO
• TILE FLOORING
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• NEWER HVAC
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Designated parking space (per directions); Lot irregularly shaped
• HOA & community: Part of Villas West association; HOA includes laundry facilities, park, and pool; HOA dues paid monthly; HOA covers common area maintenance, exterior unit maintenance, pest control, roof repair and replacement, sewer, street maintenance, and water

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors; Wrought iron security door
• Utilities: Water provided by water company; Sewer connected; Pre-wired for telephone lines
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Brick construction; Built-up reflective roof
• Exterior features: Covered paver patio; Block fencing; East/West exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Plantation shutters; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($751/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.71%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-8,173
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $14,761
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,363 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $526/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$410
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,284

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $91	+0% $63	+5% $35	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $9	+0% $63	+5% $116	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $88	base $63	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	16d	1	0.09mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	25d	1	0.15mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	18d	1	0.15mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	18d	1	0.15mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	25d	1	0.16mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	25d	1	0.20mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	3d	1	0.22mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	25d	1	0.25mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	3d	1	0.25mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	3d	1	0.26mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	3d	1	0.27mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	25d	1	0.27mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $410 · $4,920/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $99,000 Pending 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,000 Active Contingent 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active Contingent 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active Contingent 94 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active Contingent 93 DOM
6. 2026-05-06
   historical Active Contingent
7. 2026-04-22
   status Active
8. 2026-03-03
   historical
9. 2026-02-23
   price $99,000
10. 2026-01-31
    price $110,000
11. 2026-01-08
    listed $115,000 Active
12. 2024-12-16
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Bright and cheerful! Southwest colors welcome your southwest decor. (If that's not your style, the owner is offering to paint per your request.) The home offers tile throughout, new double pane windows, newer kitchen appliances and a brand new HVAC and thermostat. The HOA takes care of water, sewer and garbage, repairs or replaces the roof, HVAC and water heater, does all outside painting, repairs and maintenance of the exterior beyond your patios., plus more! Original front door and screen also maintained by HOA. Pool just on the next block, an easy walk as well as the laundry facility with outdoor lines for that fresh smell and feel to your laundry! A walking trail nearby as well as parks and shuffleboard!

13. 2024-12-16
    soldstatus $110,000

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Bright and cheerful! Southwest colors welcome your southwest decor. (If that's not your style, the owner is offering to paint per your request.) The home offers tile throughout, new double pane windows, newer kitchen appliances and a brand new HVAC and thermostat. The HOA takes care of water, sewer and garbage, repairs or replaces the roof, HVAC and water heater, does all outside painting, repairs and maintenance of the exterior beyond your patios., plus more! Original front door and screen also maintained by HOA. Pool just on the next block, an easy walk as well as the laundry facility with outdoor lines for that fresh smell and feel to your laundry! A walking trail nearby as well as parks and shuffleboard!

14. 2024-11-11
    historical Active Contingent 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Bright and cheerful! Southwest colors welcome your southwest decor. (If that's not your style, the owner is offering to paint per your request.) The home offers tile throughout, new double pane windows, newer kitchen appliances and a brand new HVAC and thermostat. The HOA takes care of water, sewer and garbage, repairs or replaces the roof, HVAC and water heater, does all outside painting, repairs and maintenance of the exterior beyond your patios., plus more! Original front door and screen also maintained by HOA. Pool just on the next block, an easy walk as well as the laundry facility with outdoor lines for that fresh smell and feel to your laundry! A walking trail nearby as well as parks and shuffleboard!

15. 2024-10-02
    listed $130,000 Active 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Bright and cheerful! Southwest colors welcome your southwest decor. (If that's not your style, the owner is offering to paint per your request.) The home offers tile throughout, new double pane windows, newer kitchen appliances and a brand new HVAC and thermostat. The HOA takes care of water, sewer and garbage, repairs or replaces the roof, HVAC and water heater, does all outside painting, repairs and maintenance of the exterior beyond your patios., plus more! Original front door and screen also maintained by HOA. Pool just on the next block, an easy walk as well as the laundry facility with outdoor lines for that fresh smell and feel to your laundry! A walking trail nearby as well as parks and shuffleboard!

16. 2024-09-30
    historical
17. 2024-09-25
    price $129,000
18. 2024-07-11
    listed $130,000 Active
19. 2024-06-25
    historical
20. 2024-05-31
    listed $115,000 Active
21. 2024-05-20
    historical
22. 2024-04-10
    listed $120,000 Active
23. 2014-08-28
    soldstatus $46,000 Closed
24. 2014-08-28
    soldstatus $46,000
25. 2004-05-07
    soldstatus $33,000
26. 1985-02-01
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $526 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $653 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$127/yr (+$11/mo · 24.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$526
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − HOA: −$4,920
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$150
• After-tax cash flow: $902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+350.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $99,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $110,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-08 Listed $115,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-16 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-11-11 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-10-02 Listed $130,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $129,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-07-11 Listed $130,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-25 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-05-31 Listed $115,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-05-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-10 Listed $120,000 MLSSAZ
• 2014-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-28 Sold (MLS) $46,000 MLSSAZ
• 2004-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 1985-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $526 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.