2230 Lake Park Dr #253 · San Jacinto, CA 92583

$188,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 88 Days on market

Built 2019 $131/sqft · 139% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing a rare opportunity in the Soboba Springs 55+ community—this beautifully maintained 2019-built manufactured home offers the perfect blend of modern comfort, thoughtful upgrades, and resort-style living. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this newer home showcases modern comforts throughout. From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the custom stone skirting, vinyl fencing, and easy care landscaping, all adding to the home’s curb appeal. Step inside to a bright, open floor plan highlighted by vaulted ceilings, recessed lighting in the kitchen, and abundant natural light throughout. The spacious layout offers two separate living areas, ideal for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The kitchen is designed to impress, featuring granite countertops, a center island, ample cabinetry, and seamless flow into the family room—perfectly positioned to take in stunning views of the San Jacinto Mountains. The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom complete with a walk-in shower. Each bedroom is thoughtfully designed with ceiling fans and custom touches that enhance both style and comfort. Outdoor living is just as inviting, with a large covered patio offering shaded relaxation and space to enjoy the serene surroundings. The expansive carport and matching storage shed provide added convenience and functionality. Located within the gated Soboba Springs community, residents enjoy a vibrant, active lifestyle with access to a pool, spa, sauna, billiards room, craft room, library, and a large community center hosting social events, games, and activities. Ideally situated near Soboba Casino Resort and Soboba Springs Golf Course, you’ll have entertainment, dining, and recreation just minutes away. This is a rare chance to own a newer, upgraded home in one of the area’s active adult communities—schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Recessed lighting
• Vaulted ceilings
• Granite countertops

Tags

• CUSTOM STONE SKIRTING
• VINYL FENCING
• EASY CARE LANDSCAPING
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $874 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $188k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Jacinto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#467 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• San Jacinto Unified (suburban): math 13% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #421 of 517 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Estudillo Elementary (726 students, 82% FRL); North Mountain Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 844 students, 90% FRL); San Jacinto High (math 14% / reading 38%, grade F, #807 of 1,170 statewide, top 69%, 2,617 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 68% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,595/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 747% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $176,720 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.91%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,750
• List price: $188,000
• Delta: 138.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2230 Lake Park #127	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$32,000	$22	92
2230 Lake Park Dr #106	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$35,000	$24	85
2230 Lake Park Dr #143	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$75,000	$52	83
2230 Lake Park Dr #91	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	21mo	$67,000	$47	77
2230 Lake Park #193	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-10%)	2mo	$118,000	$91	77
2230 Lake Park Dr #133	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-8%)	3mo	$195,500	$148	76
2230 Lake Park Dr #81	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	24mo	$113,000	$78	75
2230 Lake Park Dr #174	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$142,000	$99	74
2230 Lake Park Dr #223	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$77,500	$58	73
2230-223 Lake Park Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	17mo	$100,000	$74	70
2230 Lake Park Dr #230	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (+13%)	18mo	$142,000	$87	58
2230 Lake Park Dr #87	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (+12%)	23mo	$120,000	$75	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $24,122
• Equity at exit: $28,031

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $88,369
• Equity at exit: $16,255

Cash invested: $52,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92583

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,346/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $874

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $188,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $980	-5% $927	+0% $874	+5% $820	+10% $767
Rent	-10% $669	-5% $771	+0% $874	+5% $976	+10% $1,079
Rate	-1.0pp $968	-0.5pp $921	base $874	+0.5pp $825	+1.0pp $775

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,000
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
904 Bergamo Ave San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1596	$2,600	$1.63	11d	1	0.59mi
905 Verona Ave San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1417	$2,300	$1.62	19d	1	0.63mi
1129 Osprey St San Jacinto, CA	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,700	$1.71	45d	1	1.03mi
492 Foursquare Pl San Jacinto, CA	3.0	2.0	1573	$3,500	$2.23	0d	1	1.10mi
1084 E Evans St San Jacinto, CA	4.0	2.0	1772	$2,900	$1.64	16d	1	1.17mi
620 E Main St San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	26d	1	1.18mi
646 Field Maple Pl GLMN HOT SPGS, CA	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1825	$2,850	$1.56	0d	9	1.21mi
621 S Mistletoe Ave San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	45d	1	1.37mi
700 Minor St San Jacinto, CA	2.0	1.0	878	$1,700	$1.94	26d	1	1.49mi
700 Minor St San Jacinto, CA	2.0	1.0	878	$1,600	$1.82	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $188,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $188,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $188,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $188,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $188,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    listed $197,000 Active 1941-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1941 chars)

    Introducing a rare opportunity in the Soboba Springs 55+ community—this beautifully maintained 2019-built manufactured home offers the perfect blend of modern comfort, thoughtful upgrades, and resort-style living. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this newer home showcases modern comforts throughout. From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the custom stone skirting, vinyl fencing, and easy care landscaping, all adding to the home’s curb appeal. Step inside to a bright, open floor plan highlighted by vaulted ceilings, recessed lighting in the kitchen, and abundant natural light throughout. The spacious layout offers two separate living areas, ideal for both entertaining and everyday comfort. The kitchen is designed to impress, featuring granite countertops, a center island, ample cabinetry, and seamless flow into the family room—perfectly positioned to take in stunning views of the San Jacinto Mountains. The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with a walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom complete with a walk-in shower. Each bedroom is thoughtfully designed with ceiling fans and custom touches that enhance both style and comfort. Outdoor living is just as inviting, with a large covered patio offering shaded relaxation and space to enjoy the serene surroundings. The expansive carport and matching storage shed provide added convenience and functionality. Located within the gated Soboba Springs community, residents enjoy a vibrant, active lifestyle with access to a pool, spa, sauna, billiards room, craft room, library, and a large community center hosting social events, games, and activities. Ideally situated near Soboba Casino Resort and Soboba Springs Golf Course, you’ll have entertainment, dining, and recreation just minutes away. This is a rare chance to own a newer, upgraded home in one of the area’s active adult communities—schedule your showing today.

17. 2024-11-30
    historical
18. 2024-10-03
    price $169,900
19. 2024-05-16
    listed $173,900 Active
20. 2024-05-01
    historical
21. 2024-04-08
    status Active
22. 2024-03-11
    status Pending Sale
23. 2024-02-17
    price $175,000
24. 2024-02-06
    price $194,950
25. 2023-11-21
    listed $198,888 Active
26. 2023-09-13
    historical
27. 2023-07-26
    price $199,000
28. 2023-03-13
    listed $209,000 Active
29. 2021-04-02
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed Sale
30. 2021-03-17
    status Pending Sale
31. 2020-10-03
    price $145,500
32. 2020-07-07
    price $149,500
33. 2020-02-01
    listed $149,900 Active
34. 2010-01-02
    historical
35. 2009-11-19
    price $28,000
36. 2009-10-14
    price $29,000
37. 2009-07-06
    listed $28,000 Active
38. 2004-07-29
    historical
39. 2004-04-29
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,346 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,429 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,531
• − Property taxes: −$1,346
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable income: $7,870
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,889
• After-tax cash flow: $8,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Jacinto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634440
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 20.94/100
• National rank: #8478
• State rank: #421 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jacinto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #15889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jacinto, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 33,778
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,778
• Household income: $68,351
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 26% Two or more races 23% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 40% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.15%
• Current HPI: 407.8584
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+337.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $197,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $169,900 CRMLS
• 2024-05-16 Listed $173,900 CRMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-04-08 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-03-11 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-02-17 Price Changed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-06 Price Changed $194,950 CRMLS
• 2023-11-21 Listed $198,888 CRMLS
• 2023-09-13 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-07-26 Price Changed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-13 Listed $209,000 CRMLS
• 2021-04-02 Sold (MLS) $135,000 CRMLS
• 2021-03-17 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-10-03 Price Changed $145,500 CRMLS
• 2020-07-07 Price Changed $149,500 CRMLS
• 2020-02-01 Listed $149,900 CRMLS
• 2010-01-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2009-11-19 Price Changed $28,000 CRMLS
• 2009-10-14 Price Changed $29,000 CRMLS
• 2009-07-06 Listed $28,000 CRMLS
• 2004-07-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2004-04-29 Listed $45,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+24.7%/yr

Latest (2020): $1,346 · +477.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.