2203 Dalis Dr #127 · Concord, CA 94520

$127,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $160k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELL MAINTAINED HOME. BEAUTIFUL AMANA COOK TOP. NEW FURNACE. NEW DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS. OWNER ANXIOUS. LEAVING AREA. THIS IS A

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool
• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Community features include clubhouse, greenbelt, pool, sauna, and spa; Senior community (Dalis Gardens)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Patio (covered and enclosed); Back yard; Side yard; Storage shed(s); Landscaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Built-in oven; Refrigerator; Laminate counters; Breakfast bar
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (both full)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Pantry; No additional rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $127k).
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 2.8% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#397 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mt. Diablo Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #202 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.47%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2227 Dalis Dr #159	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$129,950	$90	95
2122 Dalis Dr #236	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$217,000	$151	92
2259 Dalis Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$150,000	$104	92
2110 Dalis #238	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$160,000	$111	85
2217 Dalis Dr #134	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	17mo	$148,500	$103	84
2019 Dalis Dr #42	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	11mo	$140,000	$97	81
2137 Dalis Dr #95	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	11mo	$150,000	$100	80
2031 Dalis Dr #48	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+3%)	6mo	$218,000	$147	74
2161 Dalis Dr #107	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	7mo	$125,000	$100	69
2113 Dalis Dr #87	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	9mo	$162,500	$130	67
2006 Dalis Dr #256	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	13mo	$199,000	$148	65
1027 Peralta Rd #12	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	11mo	$195,000	$156	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $46,132
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.28×
• Total profit: $116,501
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94520

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,591 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$159 /mo · $1,905/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $1,103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,195

Max offer price $127,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2069 Olivera Rd Concord, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$2,450	$2.51	24d	1	0.15mi
2225 Hillsborough Ct Apt 2 Concord, CA	2.0	1.0	962	$2,200	$2.29	5d	1	0.28mi
2007 Olivera Rd Unit C Concord, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$2,700	$2.77	5d	1	0.31mi
2838 Loma Vista Ave Concord, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,995	$2.38	24d	1	0.54mi
2451 Olivera Rd Concord, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	815	$2,475	$3.04	1d	6	0.60mi
3412 Flamingo Dr #3410 Concord, CA	3.0	2.0	1062	$4,000	$3.77	24d	1	0.67mi
2756 Argyll Ave Unit C Concord, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	24d	1	0.79mi
3378 Moretti Dr Concord, CA	3.0	2.0	1242	$3,695	$2.98	24d	1	1.18mi
2477 Pacheco St Concord, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,400	$2.83	18d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $127,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$1,905
• − Insurance: −$1,432
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,488
• − Management: −$2,488
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable income: $11,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,874
• After-tax cash flow: $10,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt. Diablo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626370
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,494
• Composite: 37.5/100
• National rank: #4401
• State rank: #202 of 517 in CA

Livability — Concord

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #13519

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concord, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 125,693
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,381
• Household income: $82,479
• Rent vs Own: 62.5% rent · 37.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2649.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 28% Two or more races 20% Asian 10% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 43% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -551.74%
• Current HPI: 440.2872
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+47.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $127,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2003-06-02 Sold (MLS) $86,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2003-03-26 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-12-05 Listed $85,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR