22113 Meadow Vista Way · Jones Valley, CA 96003

$67,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,068 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1975 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Near Shasta Lake on a great level lot in Jones Valley. Nice double carport with storage shed. Front porch to relax and enjoy the view of Bear Mountain. Woodstove plus Evaporative cooling and forced air heat. Indoor Laundry room with Washer and Dryer included. Fenced back yard. Could make a great primary residence or rental. Just minutes to Jones Valley boat ramp and all that great Shasta Lake fishing.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Double carport
• Woodstove

Tags

• DOUBLE CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED
• FRONT PORCH
• VIEW OF BEAR MOUNTAIN
• WOODSTOVE
• EVAPORATIVE COOLING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in park (Mobile Home)
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Level lot; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Oven
• Flooring: Carpet
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace with wood-burning stove; Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $893 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $467 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $68k implies a 440% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.68%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,996
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14780 Bollibokka Way	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,092 (+2%)	14mo	$160,000	$147	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $51,162
• Equity at exit: $10,064

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.44×
• Total profit: $140,636
• Equity at exit: $5,836

Cash invested: $18,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$354
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $762/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $893

Break-even live

Break-even rent $564

Max offer price $67,500

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,875
• Closing costs: $2,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $67,500 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $67,500 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $67,500 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-05-28
   listed $67,500 Active
5. 1993-01-13
   soldstatus $12,500
6. 1988-02-04
   soldstatus $10,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $762 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $762 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone D · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 40 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,781
• − Property taxes: −$762
• − Insurance: −$338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$1,964
• Taxable income: $10,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,456
• After-tax cash flow: $8,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jones Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jones Valley, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+542.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $67,500 SAOR
• 1993-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records
• 1988-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $762 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.