1698 Dry Creek Rd · Wheelwright, KY 41862

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1994 18 ac lot Est $209k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Are you in the market for a home in the country with plenty of acreage for hunting, riding ATVs, riding horses, or gardening? Check out this three bedroom ranch style home on 18 acres in Knott County, Kentucky. This home is over 1,800 sq. ft. and comes with a detached garage/workshop, a barn with 3 stalls, and a separate 3 bedroom apartment on mostly wooded acreage. The floors in this home need some TLC, but it has a new HVAC system. While the apartment structure needs some work, it has a lot of potential with unfinished area on its lower level for even more living space for extended family or for a multi-family living situation.

Key facts

• 18 acres
• Separate apartment
• Barn with 3 stalls

Tags

• 18 ACRES
• DETACHED GARAGE
• BARN WITH 3 STALLS
• SEPARATE APARTMENT
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• UNFINISHED AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 18-acre lot

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway; Garage faces front
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Metal roof; Built as a house (structure type listed)
• Exterior features: Barn(s); Workshop; Partial chain link fencing; Many trees; Rural, woods, and mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and natural gas heating; Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on the first floor; 6 total rooms; Crawl space basement; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-314/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#447 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Knott County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #109 of 165 in KY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Carr Creek Elementary School (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #242 of 676 statewide, top 37%, 360 students, 74% FRL); Knott County Central High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 552 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Knott County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $140k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,217 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,824
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
245 Butcher Knife Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,000 (+8%)	19mo	$226,500	$113	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $15,176
• Equity at exit: $62,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $56,353
• Equity at exit: $97,014

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41862

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $550/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,145

Max offer price $135,374

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $13	+0% $-26	+5% $-66	+10% $-105
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $-70	+0% $-26	+5% $18	+10% $62
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $9	base $-26	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 6 DOM
18. 2026-05-24
    listed $140,000 Active
19. 1998-07-01
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $550 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$654/yr (+$54/mo · 118.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$550
• − Insurance: −$1,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,068
• − Management: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,752
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$660
• After-tax cash flow: $346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Knott County
• NCES district ID: 2103120
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $30,599
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7525
• State rank: #109 of 165 in KY

Livability — Wheelwright

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #447
• US rank: #22124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,001
• Population (ZIP): 1,032

Population outlook (Knott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,310 people
• By 2030: 13,485 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 11,794 · -17.6%
• By 2050: 10,334 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 8,098 · -43.4%
• By 2100: 6,847 · -52.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Knott

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.2) · D 19.7% · R 78.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.3pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -59.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.2 2020: R+53.9 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+47.6 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+300.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $140,000 ImagineMLS
• 1998-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records