16534 Park Scot Dr · Houston, TX 77084

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,638 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1979 6,298 sqft lot $122/sqft · 19% below area Est $245k · 19% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Opportunity – Priced Below Market Value! Great opportunity to own a 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with strong potential for equity. This property is priced below market, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking to add value. Perfect for a fix-and-flip or long-term rental. Located in an established area with convenient access to Highway 6 and I-10, offering easy commutes, nearby shopping, and dining. Strong location with continued growth and demand. Don’t miss your chance to secure a property with excellent upside in a desirable area!

Key facts

• Nearby dining
• Nearby shopping
• Strong location

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 6
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO I-10
• NEARBY SHOPPING
• NEARBY DINING
• STRONG LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($221/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Maurice L Wolfe El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 405 students, 64% FRL); Cardiff J H (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 863 students, 84% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 27% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 505 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $200k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,439
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -18.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16607 Park Lorne Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-6%)	2mo	$269,500	$175	84
16518 Dounreay Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-1%)	3mo	$225,000	$139	73
4402 Scone St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+2%)	5mo	$194,900	$116	70
4307 Glennale Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (-2%)	1mo	$251,000	$157	68
16615 Moary Firth Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+2%)	4mo	$212,026	$126	64
16523 Loch Maree Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,814 (+11%)	2mo	$230,000	$127	63
16503 Loch Maree Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,814 (+11%)	3mo	$244,900	$135	63
16530 Moary Firth Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,731 (+6%)	1mo	$229,990	$133	60
16523 Kassikay Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,739 (+6%)	3mo	$254,999	$147	59
16426 Moary Firth Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-6%)	1mo	$240,000	$157	58
16519 Gaeldom Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-10%)	0mo	$250,000	$170	57
16722 Moary Firth Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-10%)	2mo	$232,490	$157	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.4% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-23,134
• Equity at exit: $44,500

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,925
• Equity at exit: $43,581

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77084

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 505
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,658/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $75	+0% $18	+5% $-38	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-139	-5% $-60	+0% $18	+5% $97	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $119	-0.5pp $69	base $18	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17103 Clay Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1065	$1,479	$1.39	45d	1	0.43mi
16327 Dounreay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,779	$1.04	4d	1	0.51mi
4407 Hickory Grove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,850	$1.24	45d	1	0.72mi
15907 Red Willow Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1744	$1,920	$1.10	45d	1	0.84mi
16027 Hidden Acres Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1699	$1,849	$1.09	0d	1	0.94mi
16662 Royal Mile Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$3,250	$2.26	20d	1	1.01mi
4614 Cloudmount Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,290	$1.26	4d	1	1.02mi
16727 Royal Mile Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1471	$1,561	$1.06	21d	1	1.05mi
16803 Royal Mile Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	45d	1	1.05mi
3338 Marks Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,800	$1.21	7d	1	1.30mi
16430 Sheffield Run Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2227	$2,249	$1.01	9d	1	1.30mi
4719 Hidden Springs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2131	$2,465	$1.16	0d	1	1.37mi
17706 Windsor Grove Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2248	$2,900	$1.29	45d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-06
    price $200,000 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    Investor Opportunity – Priced Below Market Value! Great opportunity to own a 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with strong potential for equity. This property is priced below market, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking to add value. Perfect for a fix-and-flip or long-term rental. Located in an established area with convenient access to Highway 6 and I-10, offering easy commutes, nearby shopping, and dining. Strong location with continued growth and demand. Don’t miss your chance to secure a property with excellent upside in a desirable area!

14. 2026-04-23
    price $205,000 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    Investor Opportunity – Priced Below Market Value! Great opportunity to own a 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with strong potential for equity. This property is priced below market, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking to add value. Perfect for a fix-and-flip or long-term rental. Located in an established area with convenient access to Highway 6 and I-10, offering easy commutes, nearby shopping, and dining. Strong location with continued growth and demand. Don’t miss your chance to secure a property with excellent upside in a desirable area!

15. 2026-04-09
    price $210,000 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    Investor Opportunity – Priced Below Market Value! Great opportunity to own a 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with strong potential for equity. This property is priced below market, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking to add value. Perfect for a fix-and-flip or long-term rental. Located in an established area with convenient access to Highway 6 and I-10, offering easy commutes, nearby shopping, and dining. Strong location with continued growth and demand. Don’t miss your chance to secure a property with excellent upside in a desirable area!

16. 2026-04-08
    listed $220,000 Active 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    Investor Opportunity – Priced Below Market Value! Great opportunity to own a 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with strong potential for equity. This property is priced below market, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking to add value. Perfect for a fix-and-flip or long-term rental. Located in an established area with convenient access to Highway 6 and I-10, offering easy commutes, nearby shopping, and dining. Strong location with continued growth and demand. Don’t miss your chance to secure a property with excellent upside in a desirable area!

17. 2019-05-06
    soldstatus
18. 2019-05-03
    soldstatus Sold 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    3 Bedrooms and study. .. .Location! Easy access to 1-10/hwy 6!Cute home ready for move-in. Completely update inside. This home has a great lay out. large living w/ Study. new kitchen. ,cabinets, undermount zink, granite conter top, 6x24 porcelain tile floor, new texture in walls, fresh paint. new doors, new doble panel windows, Both bathroons complete remodeling. please come and take look this beautifull home for your clients.

19. 2019-04-13
    status Pending 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    3 Bedrooms and study. .. .Location! Easy access to 1-10/hwy 6!Cute home ready for move-in. Completely update inside. This home has a great lay out. large living w/ Study. new kitchen. ,cabinets, undermount zink, granite conter top, 6x24 porcelain tile floor, new texture in walls, fresh paint. new doors, new doble panel windows, Both bathroons complete remodeling. please come and take look this beautifull home for your clients.

20. 2019-03-31
    status Option Pending 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    3 Bedrooms and study. .. .Location! Easy access to 1-10/hwy 6!Cute home ready for move-in. Completely update inside. This home has a great lay out. large living w/ Study. new kitchen. ,cabinets, undermount zink, granite conter top, 6x24 porcelain tile floor, new texture in walls, fresh paint. new doors, new doble panel windows, Both bathroons complete remodeling. please come and take look this beautifull home for your clients.

21. 2019-03-14
    price $155,900 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    3 Bedrooms and study. .. .Location! Easy access to 1-10/hwy 6!Cute home ready for move-in. Completely update inside. This home has a great lay out. large living w/ Study. new kitchen. ,cabinets, undermount zink, granite conter top, 6x24 porcelain tile floor, new texture in walls, fresh paint. new doors, new doble panel windows, Both bathroons complete remodeling. please come and take look this beautifull home for your clients.

22. 2019-03-09
    price $159,990 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    3 Bedrooms and study. .. .Location! Easy access to 1-10/hwy 6!Cute home ready for move-in. Completely update inside. This home has a great lay out. large living w/ Study. new kitchen. ,cabinets, undermount zink, granite conter top, 6x24 porcelain tile floor, new texture in walls, fresh paint. new doors, new doble panel windows, Both bathroons complete remodeling. please come and take look this beautifull home for your clients.

23. 2019-02-15
    listed $165,000 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    3 Bedrooms and study. .. .Location! Easy access to 1-10/hwy 6!Cute home ready for move-in. Completely update inside. This home has a great lay out. large living w/ Study. new kitchen. ,cabinets, undermount zink, granite conter top, 6x24 porcelain tile floor, new texture in walls, fresh paint. new doors, new doble panel windows, Both bathroons complete remodeling. please come and take look this beautifull home for your clients.

24. 2007-06-25
    historical
25. 2006-07-07
    listed $110,000
26. 2002-03-06
    soldstatus
27. 1999-06-30
    soldstatus
28. 1991-12-01
    soldstatus $61,822

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,658 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,658 · $388/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,658
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$725
• After-tax cash flow: $946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 110,217
• Household income: $80,575
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3257.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 22% White 22% Black 16% Asian 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.40%
• Current HPI: 251.8474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+223.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-05-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-03-14 Price Changed $155,900 HARMLS
• 2019-03-09 Price Changed $159,990 HARMLS
• 2019-02-15 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2007-06-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-07-07 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2002-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $61,822 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,658 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.