1220 Oregon Ave · Erie, PA 16505

$229,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1950 7,000 sqft lot Est $241k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

UNBELIEVABLE SPACE IN THIS OVER 1640 SF UPDATED ONE STORY WITH FINISHED BASEMENT & VERY ROOMY GARAGE. NEWER ROOF, FURNACE, BATH, KITCHEN, ELECTRIC, H2O, LL WINDOWS & DECOR! YOU'LL LOVE THE MODERNIZED INTERIOR & THE VERSATILITY OF THE FLOOR PLAN. HURRY TO GET IN THIS ONE!!!

Key facts

• One story home
• Oversized rooms
• Newer appliances

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• QUIET LOCATION
• OVERSIZED ROOMS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• NEWER APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Total 4 parking spaces (1 garage space); Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Landscaped yard; Level lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Storage space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-52/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tracy El Sch (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #858 of 1,518 statewide, top 57%, 509 students, 58% FRL); Westlake Ms (math 29% / reading 60%, grade D, #194 of 512 statewide, top 39%, 470 students, 59% FRL); Mcdowell Hs (math 76% / reading 50%, grade B-, #72 of 437 statewide, top 16%, 2,205 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 29% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $229k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $195,091 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1018 Sill Ave	0.24mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,638 (-0%)	8mo	$220,000	$134	75
802 Oregon Ave	0.36mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,612 (-2%)	4mo	$115,000	$71	70
826 Oregon Ave	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,672 (+2%)	12mo	$245,000	$147	68
1001 Linden Ave	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,677 (+2%)	9mo	$290,000	$173	66
3270 W 11 St	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,442 (-12%)	9mo	$231,000	$160	63
904 Potomac Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+1%)	1mo	$239,900	$145	62
1014 Potomac Ave	0.59mi	3/3.0	1,500 (-8%)	2mo	$230,000	$153	51
938 Michigan Blvd	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,470 (-10%)	16mo	$265,000	$180	50
722 Marshall Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,436 (-12%)	11mo	$232,300	$162	47
3320 Argyle Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,667 (+2%)	20mo	$120,000	$72	45
408 Oregon Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,797 (+10%)	10mo	$245,900	$137	44
3309 W 12th St	0.18mi	3/3.0	1,400 (-15%)	21mo	$155,000	$111	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-37,378
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-32,877
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16505

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,991/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,956

Max offer price $228,233

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $60	+0% $-4	+5% $-69	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-158	-5% $-81	+0% $-4	+5% $73	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $54	base $-4	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3630 W 10th St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	45d	1	0.57mi
3304 Baer Beach Rd Unit C-13 Erie, PA	2.0	2.5	1830	$2,200	$1.20	45d	1	0.86mi
2412 Powell Ave Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	45d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $229,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   remarks 633-char remark
4. 2026-06-07
   listed $229,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,991 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,305 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: +$314/yr (+$26/mo · 10.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,411
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,991
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$3,960
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$950
• After-tax cash flow: $898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,631

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.22%
• Current HPI: 240.6976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+106.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $229,000 GEBOR
• 2018-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-22 Sold (MLS) $125,000 GEBOR
• 2018-04-04 Listed $132,500 GEBOR
• 2006-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $111,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,991 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.