4000 Ace Ln #283 · Lewisville, TX 75067

$44,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 148 Days on market

Built 2026 $36/sqft · 40% below area Est $73k · 40% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a playground, scenic views, and a swimming pool, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Scenic views
• Playground

Tags

• PLAYGROUND
• SCENIC VIEWS
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 45.0% vs local median 3.2% in Lewisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#440 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B+; Watch: commute D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 223 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 45.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 138.24%
• DSCR: 7.15
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,272
• List price: $44,000
• Delta: -39.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.39×
• Total profit: $78,785
• Equity at exit: $6,561

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.59×
• Total profit: $167,387
• Equity at exit: $3,804

Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75067

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $162/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $1,419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $44,000

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,444	-5% $1,432	+0% $1,419	+5% $1,407	+10% $1,394
Rent	-10% $1,251	-5% $1,335	+0% $1,419	+5% $1,503	+10% $1,587
Rate	-1.0pp $1,441	-0.5pp $1,430	base $1,419	+0.5pp $1,408	+1.0pp $1,396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,000
• Closing costs: $1,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2250 S Valley Pkwy Unit 2118 Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1066	$1,738	$1.63	0d	1	0.57mi
2250 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,524	$1.81	5d	1	0.57mi
2250 S Valley Pkwy Unit 2283 Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,738	$1.96	44d	1	0.57mi
2250 S Valley Pkwy Unit 2287 Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1199	$1,791	$1.49	44d	1	0.57mi
2250 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$5,112	$4.95	11d	1	0.57mi
2250 S Valley Pkwy Unit 3118 Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,239	$1.63	0d	1	0.57mi
2250 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1199	$2,307	$1.92	21d	1	0.57mi
940 W Round Grove Rd Lewisville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,230	$2.19	0d	50	0.61mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Unit 2473 Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,982	$1.86	44d	1	0.64mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Unit 3118 Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,126	$1.54	0d	1	0.64mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Unit 2118 Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,948	$1.83	0d	1	0.64mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Unit 2469 Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,753	$2.00	44d	1	0.64mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$5,362	$5.19	11d	1	0.67mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,179	$1.56	44d	1	0.67mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,212	$1.61	5d	1	0.67mi
2436 S Valley Pkwy Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1199	$1,855	$1.55	3d	1	0.67mi
2400 Ace Ln Lewisville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$2,215	$2.75	5d	84	0.70mi
620 N Coppell Rd Coppell, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1291	$2,689	$2.08	0d	26	0.89mi
2479 Deer Run Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	16d	1	1.26mi
3800 Grapevine Mills Pkwy Grapevine, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1281	$2,609	$2.04	0d	44	1.44mi
332 W Corporate Dr Lewisville, TX	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,950	$1.74	11d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $44,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $44,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-04-14
   price $44,000 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a playground, scenic views, and a swimming pool, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

4. 2026-03-04
   price $49,400 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a playground, scenic views, and a swimming pool, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

5. 2026-02-01
   price $54,000 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a playground, scenic views, and a swimming pool, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

6. 2026-01-05
   listed $54,500 Active 510-char remark

   Show marketing remark (510 chars)

   * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as a playground, scenic views, and a swimming pool, your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $162 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$643/yr (+$54/mo · 397.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,465
• − Property taxes: −$162
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,044
• − Management: −$2,044
• − Depreciation: −$1,280
• Taxable income: $17,333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,160
• After-tax cash flow: $12,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lewisville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827300
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,351
• Composite: 47.1/100
• National rank: #2333
• State rank: #109 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lewisville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #440
• US rank: #8991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lewisville, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 84,871
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 66,913
• Household income: $78,752
• Rent vs Own: 60.2% rent · 39.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3630.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 16% Two or more races 16% Asian 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Philippines, South Korea
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 279.3299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $44,000 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $49,400 Zillow
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $54,000 Zillow
• 2026-01-05 Listed $54,500 Zillow

Property tax history

-6.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $162 · -58.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.