70 County Road 406 · Clanton, AL 35045

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 208 Days on market

Built 1900 0.53 ac lot $24/sqft · 81% below area ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is in a great location and could be a great home or investment property. 3 bedroom and 2 bath fixer upper or you can put a mobile home on the lot. Large workshop.

Key facts

• Large workshop
• 0.53 acre lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• LARGE WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $837 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.8% vs local median 3.4% in Clanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#259 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Chilton County (rural): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #94 of 129 in AL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Chilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chilton County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.19%
• DSCR: 4.26
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,805
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -81.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1230 County Road 53	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,200 (+6%)	19mo	$243,000	$110	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $45,381
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.89×
• Total profit: $108,233
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35045

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $699/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $837

Break-even live

Break-even rent $425

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $865	-5% $851	+0% $837	+5% $823	+10% $809
Rent	-10% $720	-5% $778	+0% $837	+5% $895	+10% $954
Rate	-1.0pp $862	-0.5pp $849	base $837	+0.5pp $824	+1.0pp $811

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 202 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 199 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 197 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    price $49,000 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    This home is in a great location and could be a great home or investment property. 3 bedroom and 2 bath fixer upper or you can put a mobile home on the lot. Large workshop.

17. 2026-01-27
    status Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    This home is in a great location and could be a great home or investment property. 3 bedroom and 2 bath fixer upper or you can put a mobile home on the lot. Large workshop.

18. 2025-12-31
    historical 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    This home is in a great location and could be a great home or investment property. 3 bedroom and 2 bath fixer upper or you can put a mobile home on the lot. Large workshop.

19. 2025-10-29
    listed $59,000 Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    This home is in a great location and could be a great home or investment property. 3 bedroom and 2 bath fixer upper or you can put a mobile home on the lot. Large workshop.

20. 2015-03-18
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $699 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $699 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$699
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $9,846
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,363
• After-tax cash flow: $7,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chilton County
• NCES district ID: 0100660
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,269
• Composite: 20.73/100
• National rank: #8520
• State rank: #94 of 129 in AL

Livability — Clanton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #18072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chilton County · 15,324 people
• City population: 15,324
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 15,324
• Household income: $65,907
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 326.0

Population outlook (Chilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,064 people
• By 2030: 43,694 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 42,168 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 39,667 · -10.0%
• By 2075: 31,397 · -28.7%
• By 2100: 21,319 · -51.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chilton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.1) · D 13.7% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.8pp · 2024: -72.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.1 2020: R+67.4 2016: R+66.6 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+57.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.21%
• Current HPI: 187.6339
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $49,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-27 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-12-31 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $59,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2015-03-18 Listed $49,900 MAAR

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $699 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.