2616 Elm Ave · Bay City, TX 77414

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1970 4,791 sqft lot Est $170k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2616 Elm Ave, a 3 bedroom 1 bath cottage offering 1,298 sq. ft. of living space in a quiet, established neighborhood of Bay City. Built in 1970 this single story home sits on a 4,792 sq. ft. corner lot and provides a functional layout with a comfortable living area, kitchen and bathroom and a covered porch and patio for outdoor enjoyment. Can provide a recent appraisal done within the last 60 days valuing the house at $145,000+ This is a solid investment opportunity-current market rents range between 1,200 and 1,400 for the area and type of home. Currently occupied by a long term tenant but will be vacant upon completion of purchase. Open to negotiating concessions at closing. THIS IS PRICED TO MOVE SO ANY AND ALL REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE ENTERTAINED.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 11 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roberts El (513 students, 82% FRL); Bay City H S (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,031 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,324 (1.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.80%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,100
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2616 Elm Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,260 (0%)	4mo	$92,000	$73	97
3200 3rd St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,275 (+1%)	1mo	$189,000	$148	76
2217 Linwood Ln	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,212 (-4%)	3mo	$158,500	$131	60
2209 Linwood Ln	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,281 (+2%)	8mo	$172,500	$135	59
3204 3rd St	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,150 (-9%)	9mo	$162,500	$141	57
2904 5th St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+15%)	1mo	$215,000	$149	56
2408 10th St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,269 (+1%)	13mo	$120,000	$95	53
2300 8th St	0.54mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,397 (+11%)	14mo	$49,900	$36	38
3120 Avenue H	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+12%)	6mo	$199,500	$141	38
1805 Pine Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,118 (-11%)	16mo	$79,900	$71	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,749
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,891
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,433 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,789/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,228

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2824 4th St Bay City, TX	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,800	$1.18	43d	1	0.24mi
2600 Avenue K Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,665	$1.30	43d	1	0.37mi
2604 Avenue K Bay City, TX	2.0	2.0	963	$1,415	$1.47	43d	1	0.41mi
1417 Highland Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,600	$0.96	43d	1	1.03mi
1700 Baywood Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,233	$1.53	43d	57	1.15mi
1401 Thompson Dr Bay City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,250	$1.36	43d	4	1.32mi
1901 Palm Village Blvd Bay City, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$849	$0.89	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $137,000 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,000 Coming Soon 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,000 Coming Soon 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 334-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,000 Coming Soon 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,000 Coming Soon 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,000 Coming Soon 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $137,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    historical $137,000
18. 2026-02-24
    soldstatus
19. 2026-02-23
    soldstatus Closed 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Welcome to 2616 Elm Ave, a 3 bedroom 1 bath cottage offering 1,298 sq. ft. of living space in a quiet, established neighborhood of Bay City. Built in 1970 this single story home sits on a 4,792 sq. ft. corner lot and provides a functional layout with a comfortable living area, kitchen and bathroom and a covered porch and patio for outdoor enjoyment. Can provide a recent appraisal done within the last 60 days valuing the house at $145,000+ This is a solid investment opportunity-current market rents range between 1,200 and 1,400 for the area and type of home. Currently occupied by a long term tenant but will be vacant upon completion of purchase. Open to negotiating concessions at closing. THIS IS PRICED TO MOVE SO ANY AND ALL REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE ENTERTAINED.

20. 2026-01-23
    historical Active Under Contract 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Welcome to 2616 Elm Ave, a 3 bedroom 1 bath cottage offering 1,298 sq. ft. of living space in a quiet, established neighborhood of Bay City. Built in 1970 this single story home sits on a 4,792 sq. ft. corner lot and provides a functional layout with a comfortable living area, kitchen and bathroom and a covered porch and patio for outdoor enjoyment. Can provide a recent appraisal done within the last 60 days valuing the house at $145,000+ This is a solid investment opportunity-current market rents range between 1,200 and 1,400 for the area and type of home. Currently occupied by a long term tenant but will be vacant upon completion of purchase. Open to negotiating concessions at closing. THIS IS PRICED TO MOVE SO ANY AND ALL REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE ENTERTAINED.

21. 2025-12-17
    status Pending 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Welcome to 2616 Elm Ave, a 3 bedroom 1 bath cottage offering 1,298 sq. ft. of living space in a quiet, established neighborhood of Bay City. Built in 1970 this single story home sits on a 4,792 sq. ft. corner lot and provides a functional layout with a comfortable living area, kitchen and bathroom and a covered porch and patio for outdoor enjoyment. Can provide a recent appraisal done within the last 60 days valuing the house at $145,000+ This is a solid investment opportunity-current market rents range between 1,200 and 1,400 for the area and type of home. Currently occupied by a long term tenant but will be vacant upon completion of purchase. Open to negotiating concessions at closing. THIS IS PRICED TO MOVE SO ANY AND ALL REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE ENTERTAINED.

22. 2025-10-23
    price $92,000 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Welcome to 2616 Elm Ave, a 3 bedroom 1 bath cottage offering 1,298 sq. ft. of living space in a quiet, established neighborhood of Bay City. Built in 1970 this single story home sits on a 4,792 sq. ft. corner lot and provides a functional layout with a comfortable living area, kitchen and bathroom and a covered porch and patio for outdoor enjoyment. Can provide a recent appraisal done within the last 60 days valuing the house at $145,000+ This is a solid investment opportunity-current market rents range between 1,200 and 1,400 for the area and type of home. Currently occupied by a long term tenant but will be vacant upon completion of purchase. Open to negotiating concessions at closing. THIS IS PRICED TO MOVE SO ANY AND ALL REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE ENTERTAINED.

23. 2025-10-14
    price $110,000 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Welcome to 2616 Elm Ave, a 3 bedroom 1 bath cottage offering 1,298 sq. ft. of living space in a quiet, established neighborhood of Bay City. Built in 1970 this single story home sits on a 4,792 sq. ft. corner lot and provides a functional layout with a comfortable living area, kitchen and bathroom and a covered porch and patio for outdoor enjoyment. Can provide a recent appraisal done within the last 60 days valuing the house at $145,000+ This is a solid investment opportunity-current market rents range between 1,200 and 1,400 for the area and type of home. Currently occupied by a long term tenant but will be vacant upon completion of purchase. Open to negotiating concessions at closing. THIS IS PRICED TO MOVE SO ANY AND ALL REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE ENTERTAINED.

24. 2025-10-02
    listed $124,000 Active 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Welcome to 2616 Elm Ave, a 3 bedroom 1 bath cottage offering 1,298 sq. ft. of living space in a quiet, established neighborhood of Bay City. Built in 1970 this single story home sits on a 4,792 sq. ft. corner lot and provides a functional layout with a comfortable living area, kitchen and bathroom and a covered porch and patio for outdoor enjoyment. Can provide a recent appraisal done within the last 60 days valuing the house at $145,000+ This is a solid investment opportunity-current market rents range between 1,200 and 1,400 for the area and type of home. Currently occupied by a long term tenant but will be vacant upon completion of purchase. Open to negotiating concessions at closing. THIS IS PRICED TO MOVE SO ANY AND ALL REASONABLE OFFERS WILL BE ENTERTAINED.

25. 2022-07-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,789 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$864/yr (+$72/mo · 48.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,789
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,376
• − Management: −$1,376
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$408
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$98
• After-tax cash flow: $2,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Coming Soon $137,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $92,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $124,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,789 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.