405 Saint Lawrence Ave · New York, NY 10473

$825,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,650 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1975 1,967 sqft lot Est $906k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to Own a large 2 Family Brick construction in the Soundview Area of the Bronx. Features 3 Large Bedroom apartment and 2 Bedrooms apartment finished walk- in basement, recreation room. Hardwood floors. Gas heat, Driveway. Convenient to all major transportation.

Key facts

• Recreation room
• Driveway
• Gas heat

Tags

• FINISHED WALK IN BASEMENT
• RECREATION ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GAS HEAT
• DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $825k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($703/yr) — positive. Per door: $29/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $673k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $673k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,728/mo this rent would consume 154% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 3913% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $825k implies a 312% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $672,800 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $906,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1815 Patterson Ave	0.09mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,625 (-1%)	2mo	$752,200	$287	87
535 Saint Lawrence Ave	0.20mi	3/— (-1)	2,760 (+4%)	10mo	$999,000	$362	70
643 Underhill Ave	0.44mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,748 (+4%)	6mo	$855,000	$311	60
622 Saint Lawrence Ave	0.33mi	5/— (+1)	2,540 (-4%)	21mo	$765,000	$301	55
1894 Seward Ave	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,748 (+4%)	8mo	$850,000	$309	55
250 Newman Ave	0.48mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,470 (-7%)	7mo	$860,000	$348	52
203 White Plains Rd	0.46mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,380 (-10%)	0mo	$814,000	$342	48
536 Pugsley Ave	0.58mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,325 (-12%)	12mo	$685,000	$295	34
2037 Cicero Ave	0.63mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,325 (-12%)	5mo	$805,000	$346	33
2049 Caesar Pl	0.66mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,325 (-12%)	8mo	$612,850	$264	29
2096 Randall Ave	0.71mi	5/5.0 (+1)	2,325 (-12%)	4mo	$915,000	$394	26
2026 Caesar Pl	0.62mi	5/5.0 (+1)	2,325 (-12%)	14mo	$800,000	$344	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-130,126
• Equity at exit: $123,010

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-109,204
• Equity at exit: $71,331

Cash invested: $231,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10473

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 20.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,326
• Tax from tax record: −$520 /mo · $6,239/yr
• Insurance: −$344
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,413
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,654

Max offer price $825,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $526	-5% $292	+0% $59	+5% $-175	+10% $-408
Rent	-10% $-473	-5% $-207	+0% $59	+5% $324	+10% $590
Rate	-1.0pp $474	-0.5pp $268	base $59	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-373

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$6,728
Total (2 units)			$6,728

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $206,250
• Closing costs: $24,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-27
   listed $825,000 Active
3. 1993-12-09
   soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,239 · $520/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,091 · $841/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,852/yr (+$321/mo · 61.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,213
• − Property taxes: −$6,239
• − Insurance: −$4,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,459
• − Management: −$6,459
• − Depreciation: −$24,000
• Taxable loss: −$13,556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,254
• After-tax cash flow: $3,957/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,855
• Household income: $52,462
• Rent vs Own: 71.4% rent · 28.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3913.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 34% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 31% Dominican 20%
• Common ancestry: British 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.70%
• Current HPI: 276.2941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+312.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Listed $825,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,239 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.