7 Chinaberry Cir · Sugarmill Woods, FL 34446

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · Condo public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1976 $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2/2/1 fully furnished golf course villa

Key facts

• Added privacy
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Reroofed in 2019

Tags

• SUGARMILL WOODS COMMUNITY
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• REROOFED IN 2019
• NATURAL SURROUNDINGS
• ADDED PRIVACY
• EASY ACCESS TO BOATING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Sugarmill Woods - Cypress Village
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $142 (about $11.83/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space); Driveway; Concrete surfaces
• Security: HOA provides security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Built with block foundation; Construction materials: block, concrete, brick, wood siding; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Cleared, level, rectangular lot; Paved road frontage on a county road

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Sliding doors; No built-in appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.0% in Sugarmill Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#825 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lecanto Primary School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 820 students, 63% FRL); Lecanto Middle School (math 49% / reading 49%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 809 students, 55% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 582 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $145k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.91%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,314
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $16,799
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34446

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,954/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,344

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $351	-5% $310	+0% $269	+5% $228	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $136	-5% $202	+0% $269	+5% $335	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $342	-0.5pp $306	base $269	+0.5pp $231	+1.0pp $193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Black Cherry Dr Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,600	$1.40	21d	1	0.02mi
5 Jamaica St Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,500	$1.11	21d	1	0.04mi
17 Jamaica St Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	21d	1	0.09mi
57 Chinaberry Cir Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$1,575	$1.39	21d	1	0.25mi
17 Dogwood Dr Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	21d	1	0.33mi
23 Dogwood Dr Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1492	$2,200	$1.47	21d	1	0.35mi
6270 W Oak Park Blvd Unit 6270 Homosassa, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	15d	1	1.16mi
5538 W Oak Park Blvd Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1439	$1,700	$1.18	21d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $145,000 Active
3. 2002-10-21
   soldstatus $70,000
4. 2002-10-18
   soldstatus $70,000 39-char remark

   Show marketing remark (39 chars)

   2/2/1 fully furnished golf course villa

5. 2002-07-25
   listed $75,000 39-char remark

   Show marketing remark (39 chars)

   2/2/1 fully furnished golf course villa

6. 1981-12-01
   soldstatus $60,000
7. 1976-05-01
   soldstatus $32,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,954 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,954 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,954
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,021
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$245
• After-tax cash flow: $2,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sugarmill Woods

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #825
• US rank: #20184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sugarmill Woods, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 18,797
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,102
• Household income: $58,802
• Rent vs Own: 6.9% rent · 93.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 121.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.11%
• Current HPI: 277.2576
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+350.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — RACC
• 2026-04-28 Listed $145,000 RACC
• 2002-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-18 Sold (MLS) $70,000 RACC
• 2002-07-25 Listed $75,000 RACC
• 1981-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1976-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,954 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.