40227 S Hill Pass · Magnolia, TX 77354

$415,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,385 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2019 6,507 sqft lot $123/sqft · 25% below area Est $551k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.7/30.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this stunning 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home designed for comfort & entertainment! The open floor plan creates a seamless flow between the kitchen & living room. The beautiful kitchen boasts 42" cabinets & an inviting island complete w/ a sink, making meal preparation & entertaining a breeze. There is also a office/flex room offering versatility for your specific needs, whether it be a home office or a hobby room. The spacious game room & media room are upstairs & provide the perfect space for relaxation & fun. The garage has been transformed into a man cave, w/ epoxy flooring and paint. It offers ample storage space, courtesy of the built-in shelves cleverly designed to conceal the tankless water heater & water softener. This space has been so well maintained that the sellers have never parked their cars inside. Overall, the home combines functionality, style, & entertainment, making it the perfect place to create lasting memories & enjoy a comfortable lifestyle.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Inviting island
• Office flex room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• INVITING ISLAND
• OFFICE FLEX ROOM
• SPACIOUS GAME ROOM
• MEDIA ROOM
• EPOXY FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage with automatic door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2019; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Private yard; Storage; Shed(s); Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on second floor (14 x 13); Bedroom on second floor (12 x 12); Bedroom on second floor (12 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room (first floor, 9 x 7)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (44.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (47.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (47.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,206 (47.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.34%
• DSCR: 0.27
• GRM: 15.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $550,714
• List price: $415,000
• Delta: -24.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40393 Mostyn Dr	0.17mi	4/3.5	3,172 (-6%)	6mo	$549,900	$173	74
40323 Community Rd	0.42mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,105 (-8%)	1mo	$920,000	$296	61
40931 Westley Ln	0.48mi	4/3.5	3,053 (-10%)	3mo	$724,900	$237	57
12603 Damuth Ct	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,909 (-14%)	5mo	$634,000	$218	56
12650 Luger Ln	0.61mi	4/3.0	3,131 (-8%)	6mo	$685,000	$219	54
40805 Iver Lane Ln	0.40mi	4/3.5	3,810 (+13%)	6mo	$689,000	$181	54
40845 Wesson Ln	0.39mi	4/4.5	3,781 (+12%)	4mo	$855,000	$226	53
12306 Marshall Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	3,090 (-9%)	9mo	$585,000	$189	51
12615 Luger Ln	0.45mi	4/4.5	3,823 (+13%)	2mo	$779,500	$204	50
40110 Mostyn Dr	0.75mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,067 (-9%)	3mo	$775,951	$253	40
12511 Stallion Ct	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,781 (+12%)	7mo	$567,000	$150	39
40506 Springfield Ln	0.49mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,890 (+15%)	4mo	$715,000	$184	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $119,798
• Equity at exit: $373,865

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $422,193
• Equity at exit: $806,254

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$965 /mo · $11,577/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-1,582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,195

Max offer price $231,534

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,347	-5% $-1,465	+0% $-1,582	+5% $-1,700	+10% $-1,817
Rent	-10% $-1,755	-5% $-1,669	+0% $-1,582	+5% $-1,496	+10% $-1,409
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,373	-0.5pp $-1,477	base $-1,582	+0.5pp $-1,690	+1.0pp $-1,799

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13423 Maltessa Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2285	$1,300	$0.57	5d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $415,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $415,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $415,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $415,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $415,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $415,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $415,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $415,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $415,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $415,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $415,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $415,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $415,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $415,000 Active 930-char remark
16. 2023-10-06
    soldstatus Sold 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home designed for comfort & entertainment! The open floor plan creates a seamless flow between the kitchen & living room. The beautiful kitchen boasts 42" cabinets & an inviting island complete w/ a sink, making meal preparation & entertaining a breeze. There is also a office/flex room offering versatility for your specific needs, whether it be a home office or a hobby room. The spacious game room & media room are upstairs & provide the perfect space for relaxation & fun. The garage has been transformed into a man cave, w/ epoxy flooring and paint. It offers ample storage space, courtesy of the built-in shelves cleverly designed to conceal the tankless water heater & water softener. This space has been so well maintained that the sellers have never parked their cars inside. Overall, the home combines functionality, style, & entertainment, making it the perfect place to create lasting memories & enjoy a comfortable lifestyle.

17. 2023-10-06
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home designed for comfort & entertainment! The open floor plan creates a seamless flow between the kitchen & living room. The beautiful kitchen boasts 42" cabinets & an inviting island complete w/ a sink, making meal preparation & entertaining a breeze. There is also a office/flex room offering versatility for your specific needs, whether it be a home office or a hobby room. The spacious game room & media room are upstairs & provide the perfect space for relaxation & fun. The garage has been transformed into a man cave, w/ epoxy flooring and paint. It offers ample storage space, courtesy of the built-in shelves cleverly designed to conceal the tankless water heater & water softener. This space has been so well maintained that the sellers have never parked their cars inside. Overall, the home combines functionality, style, & entertainment, making it the perfect place to create lasting memories & enjoy a comfortable lifestyle.

18. 2023-08-24
    status Pending 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home designed for comfort & entertainment! The open floor plan creates a seamless flow between the kitchen & living room. The beautiful kitchen boasts 42" cabinets & an inviting island complete w/ a sink, making meal preparation & entertaining a breeze. There is also a office/flex room offering versatility for your specific needs, whether it be a home office or a hobby room. The spacious game room & media room are upstairs & provide the perfect space for relaxation & fun. The garage has been transformed into a man cave, w/ epoxy flooring and paint. It offers ample storage space, courtesy of the built-in shelves cleverly designed to conceal the tankless water heater & water softener. This space has been so well maintained that the sellers have never parked their cars inside. Overall, the home combines functionality, style, & entertainment, making it the perfect place to create lasting memories & enjoy a comfortable lifestyle.

19. 2023-08-20
    status Option Pending 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home designed for comfort & entertainment! The open floor plan creates a seamless flow between the kitchen & living room. The beautiful kitchen boasts 42" cabinets & an inviting island complete w/ a sink, making meal preparation & entertaining a breeze. There is also a office/flex room offering versatility for your specific needs, whether it be a home office or a hobby room. The spacious game room & media room are upstairs & provide the perfect space for relaxation & fun. The garage has been transformed into a man cave, w/ epoxy flooring and paint. It offers ample storage space, courtesy of the built-in shelves cleverly designed to conceal the tankless water heater & water softener. This space has been so well maintained that the sellers have never parked their cars inside. Overall, the home combines functionality, style, & entertainment, making it the perfect place to create lasting memories & enjoy a comfortable lifestyle.

20. 2023-08-04
    listed $398,000 Active 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home designed for comfort & entertainment! The open floor plan creates a seamless flow between the kitchen & living room. The beautiful kitchen boasts 42" cabinets & an inviting island complete w/ a sink, making meal preparation & entertaining a breeze. There is also a office/flex room offering versatility for your specific needs, whether it be a home office or a hobby room. The spacious game room & media room are upstairs & provide the perfect space for relaxation & fun. The garage has been transformed into a man cave, w/ epoxy flooring and paint. It offers ample storage space, courtesy of the built-in shelves cleverly designed to conceal the tankless water heater & water softener. This space has been so well maintained that the sellers have never parked their cars inside. Overall, the home combines functionality, style, & entertainment, making it the perfect place to create lasting memories & enjoy a comfortable lifestyle.

21. 2023-07-22
    historical $398,000 1047-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1047 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home designed for comfort & entertainment! The open floor plan creates a seamless flow between the kitchen & living room. The beautiful kitchen boasts 42" cabinets & an inviting island complete w/ a sink, making meal preparation & entertaining a breeze. There is also a office/flex room offering versatility for your specific needs, whether it be a home office or a hobby room. The spacious game room & media room are upstairs & provide the perfect space for relaxation & fun. The garage has been transformed into a man cave, w/ epoxy flooring and paint. It offers ample storage space, courtesy of the built-in shelves cleverly designed to conceal the tankless water heater & water softener. This space has been so well maintained that the sellers have never parked their cars inside. Overall, the home combines functionality, style, & entertainment, making it the perfect place to create lasting memories & enjoy a comfortable lifestyle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,577 · $965/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,577 · $965/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$11,577
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,104
• − Management: −$2,104
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$26,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,450
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+4.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $415,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-08-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-04 Listed $398,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-22 Coming Soon $398,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+31.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,577 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.