Oak | Trinity Ranch Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$329,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,299 sqft · SingleFamily · 153 Days on market

Good condition $53/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The strength of the Oak lies in its majestic design. It's simplicity itself to rustle up dinner in the gourmet kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and a center island. The dining room is steps away but separate from the wide living room. After dinner, throw down a video game challenge. The game room has become a comfortable flex room that easily transitions from home office to media room. Tuck into bed then retreat downstairs to your luxurious primary suite. Enjoy the peace and quiet.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Wide living room
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTER ISLAND
• DINING ROOM
• WIDE LIVING ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $329,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $323,748.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $256,465 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.50%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,748
• List price: $329,990
• Delta: 1.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
446 Lucky Ave	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,299 (0%)	1mo	$337,490	$147	90
439 Lucky Ave	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,299 (0%)	2mo	$329,490	$143	88
440 Lucky Ave	0.21mi	4/3.5	2,470 (+7%)	1mo	$344,990	$140	73
136 Tolo Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,025 (-12%)	3mo	$309,990	$153	72
170 Hornet St	0.17mi	4/3.0	1,998 (-13%)	1mo	$316,935	$159	68
162 Two Bits Ln	0.42mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (+6%)	2mo	$329,990	$135	62
224 Bendecido Loop	0.50mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (+6%)	0mo	$339,990	$139	59
220 Bendecido Loop	0.48mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (+6%)	2mo	$328,990	$135	59
182 Bendecido Loop	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-13%)	1mo	$321,990	$161	57
129 Two Bits Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-13%)	2mo	$314,990	$157	55
119 Two Bits Ln	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-13%)	1mo	$316,990	$158	54
107 Two Bits Ln	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-13%)	2mo	$333,075	$166	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $159,871
• Equity at exit: $291,657

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $484,804
• Equity at exit: $628,970

Cash invested: $90,649 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,565 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,698
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$405 /mo · $4,856/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$53
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,899

Max offer price $285,507

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-152	+0% $-264	+5% $-376	+10% $-488
Rent	-10% $-467	-5% $-366	+0% $-264	+5% $-163	+10% $-62
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-182	base $-264	+0.5pp $-348	+1.0pp $-434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,937
• Closing costs: $9,712
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
174 Gullivers Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2304	$2,850	$1.24	44d	1	0.20mi
126 Bendecido Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2697	$2,250	$0.83	24d	1	0.34mi
813 Central Ave Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,300	$1.14	5d	1	0.44mi
120 Jim Dandy Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,923	$1.17	5d	1	0.75mi
209 Lake Placid Run Elgin, TX	5.0	3.0	2196	$2,200	$1.00	24d	1	0.78mi
710 North Avenue C Unit C Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	3050	$2,000	$0.66	44d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $53 · $636/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,990 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,990 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,990 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,990 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,990 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,990 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,990 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,990 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $329,990 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,990 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,990 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,990 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,990 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-01-17
    listed $329,990 Active 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    The strength of the Oak lies in its majestic design. It's simplicity itself to rustle up dinner in the gourmet kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and a center island. The dining room is steps away but separate from the wide living room. After dinner, throw down a video game challenge. The game room has become a comfortable flex room that easily transitions from home office to media room. Tuck into bed then retreat downstairs to your luxurious primary suite. Enjoy the peace and quiet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,135
• − Property taxes: −$4,856
• − Insurance: −$1,619
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,462
• − Management: −$2,462
• − HOA: −$636
• − Depreciation: −$9,418
• Taxable loss: −$8,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,115
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Elgin, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs and maintenance needed, and potential for value-adding updates that can boost both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Modern appliances are a selling point for potential buyers.
• Resale Bathroom updates — Fresh bathrooms can significantly boost a home's appeal to buyers.
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Modern appliances are a selling point for potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Fresh bathrooms can significantly boost a home's appeal to buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Listed $329,990 Zillow