859 Carleton Ave · Mobile, AL 36617

$155,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,642 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1968 6,721 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 859 Carleton Avenue in Mobile! Whether you’re searching for your first home or looking to add to your investment portfolio, this property offers incredible value and plenty of space. Inside, you’ll find an updated kitchen, new flooring, and a spacious floor plan designed for comfortable living. The large step-down den provides the perfect space for relaxing, entertaining, or creating a cozy family gathering area. Enjoy the benefits of new windows that help improve energy efficiency and natural light throughout the home. The property also features a bonus room that can be used as a home office, playroom, hobby space, or additional living area to fit your needs. Step ou

Key facts

• New flooring
• Bonus room
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• LARGE STEP-DOWN DEN
• NEW WINDOWS
• BONUS ROOM
• SCREENED-IN BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Attached parking; On-street parking; 1 total parking space
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential single family home
• Construction: Built in 1968; Cement siding; Wood siding; Other construction materials; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Other exterior features; View available

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Cabinets (other); Other kitchen features
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Holloway Elementary (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #554 of 627 statewide, top 88%, 498 students, 98% FRL); John L Leflore Magnet School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 618 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 67% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 7% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $155k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,060 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.18%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $100,162
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
925 Kooiman St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-1%)	16mo	$20,000	$12	75
2250 Downs Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+2%)	11mo	$174,900	$104	60
2064 Tucker St	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,748 (+6%)	8mo	$101,000	$58	60
687 Welworth St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,534 (-7%)	11mo	$129,900	$85	60
2253 O'connor St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,587 (-3%)	7mo	$70,000	$44	59
2253 Downs Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,578 (-4%)	7mo	$206,000	$131	59
1010 Barbara Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,430 (-13%)	0mo	$105,000	$73	54
941 Avenue H	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,467 (-11%)	0mo	$14,200	$10	51
2359 Crestwood Cir	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,500 (-9%)	9mo	$75,000	$50	48
1868 Mott Dr N	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,672 (+2%)	16mo	$75,000	$45	44
612 Summerland Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,864 (+14%)	10mo	$113,000	$61	35
1856 Nabers Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,414 (-14%)	16mo	$100,000	$71	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $45,618
• Equity at exit: $85,744

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $128,419
• Equity at exit: $146,280

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36617

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $405/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,153

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1821 Seale St Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1584	$1,400	$0.88	21d	1	0.28mi
2007 Allison St Unit 1 Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1805	$1,575	$0.87	43d	1	0.53mi
510 Schwartz St Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,400	$1.09	13d	1	0.94mi
423 Devon Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1220	$950	$0.78	43d	1	1.18mi
672 Burden St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.5	1421	$1,300	$0.91	21d	1	1.32mi
708 Bond St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	21d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $155,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 687-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $170,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $405 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $636 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$231/yr (+$19/mo · 57.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$405
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$85
• After-tax cash flow: $2,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• City population: 205,729
• Population (ZIP): 11,952

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 97% White 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.78%
• Current HPI: 128.8377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+99.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $170,000 GCMLS AL
• 2018-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $85,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $405 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.