4909 Falls St · Houston, TX 77026

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,514 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1986 5,000 sqft lot $79/sqft · 29% below area Est $169k · 29% under ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell and packed with potential, this investment opportunity is ideal for a creative investor ready to bring their vision to life. This home needs a little TLC, but the possibilities are endless. Whether you’re looking to renovate and resell, add to your rental portfolio, or create something unique, this property offers a great chance to build value.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($64/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,683/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.42%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,645
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -28.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5113 Hirsch Rd	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (+3%)	13mo	$90,000	$58	70
3409 Lebadie St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-8%)	17mo	$250,000	$180	61
3317 Le Badie St	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,660 (+10%)	11mo	$175,500	$106	60
4105 Hirsch Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+4%)	13mo	$165,000	$105	58
4622 Russell St	0.18mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,732 (+14%)	5mo	$80,000	$46	57
4315 Fairbanks St	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,465 (-3%)	14mo	$100,000	$68	57
3317 Cavalcade St	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,698 (+12%)	4mo	$280,000	$165	52
4014 Linder St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+7%)	10mo	$299,000	$185	52
4921 Kashmere St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,332 (-12%)	0mo	$109,500	$82	52
5809 Kashmere St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,618 (+7%)	7mo	$69,000	$43	51
4034 Caplin St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+13%)	0mo	$205,000	$120	45
3918 Falls St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-12%)	11mo	$229,999	$173	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $21,025
• Equity at exit: $60,091

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $68,176
• Equity at exit: $97,690

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 445
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,677

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4711 Sayers St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	43d	1	0.11mi
4030 Reid St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,000	$1.19	43d	1	0.68mi
5414 Pardee St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.88mi
2516 Ivy St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.92mi
5435 Pardee St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1634	$1,000	$0.61	43d	1	0.97mi
5124 Gold St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,895	$1.15	43d	1	0.99mi
3812 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,545	$1.19	5d	1	1.06mi
3810 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,599	$1.23	14d	1	1.06mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	43d	1	1.13mi
4626 Shreveport Blvd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,490	$1.30	13d	1	1.16mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	21d	1	1.29mi
1524 Evelyn St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,800	$1.55	43d	1	1.31mi
3910 Woolworth St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	43d	1	1.33mi
6315 Sandra St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,399	$1.22	43d	1	1.35mi
1416 Fairbanks St Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1888	$1,899	$1.01	7d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-05-11
    price $120,000 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Priced to sell and packed with potential, this investment opportunity is ideal for a creative investor ready to bring their vision to life. This home needs a little TLC, but the possibilities are endless. Whether you’re looking to renovate and resell, add to your rental portfolio, or create something unique, this property offers a great chance to build value.

13. 2026-04-07
    listed $150,000 Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Priced to sell and packed with potential, this investment opportunity is ideal for a creative investor ready to bring their vision to life. This home needs a little TLC, but the possibilities are endless. Whether you’re looking to renovate and resell, add to your rental portfolio, or create something unique, this property offers a great chance to build value.

14. 2025-07-07
    historical
15. 2025-06-09
    listed $219,999 Active
16. 2015-12-31
    soldstatus
17. 2001-01-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,624 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,624 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$5,718
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$381
• After-tax cash flow: $445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-45.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $219,999 HARMLS
• 2015-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,624 · -8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.