Laurel Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$314,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,020 sqft · SingleFamily · 344 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-4 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,020 Sq. Ft. The Laurel combines inviting open living with thoughtful separation of space-perfect for those seeking comfort, connection, and flexibility in a single-story design. Blending modern comfort and timeless style, this plan creates a natural flow that feels both bright and beautifully balanced. Entering the home, a spacious foyer opens toward the center of the home, where the great room, casual dining area, and kitchen sit at the heart of the layout. Oversized windows and open sightlines make this living space ideal for entertaining or relaxing, while optional features like a fireplace, chef's kitchen, or expanded island elevate everyday living. Additional enhancements include adding a rotunda at the foyer or elevating outdoor living with the option to extend the covered rear patio. Two secondary bedrooms are positioned near the front of the home, sharing a full bath and creating a distinct separation between living and sleeping areas. A nearby formal dining room which can also be converted into a designated study, adds versatility for work or entertaining. Located off the great room, a flex space can be used as a hobby space or playroom, with the option of a fourth bedroom. Tucked quietly along the back of the home, the primary suite is a private retreat with a spa-inspired ensuite bath featuring dual vanities for convenience, a walk-in shower, and a relaxing soaking tub.

Key facts

• Bright open layout
• Single story design
• Flex room

Tags

• SINGLE STORY DESIGN
• OPEN MODERN LIVING SPACE
• BRIGHT OPEN LAYOUT
• FLEX ROOM
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• COZY FIREPLACE

🏗️ New construction. The $314,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $376,660.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-509 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.5% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 4013 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,019 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.80%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,660
• List price: $314,990
• Delta: -13.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4959 Shimmer Side Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,948 (-4%)	2mo	$305,000	$157	79
5010 Blessing Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,776 (-12%)	0mo	$307,990	$173	72
5118 Sunvalley Bend Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (-14%)	1mo	$256,000	$147	66
4953 Blue Beetle Ridge Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,831 (-9%)	2mo	$265,000	$145	61
2221 Sonder Shore Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,803 (-11%)	2mo	$327,990	$182	58
4709 Bakers Landing Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,865 (-8%)	2mo	$349,407	$187	55
5053 Marcasca Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,164 (+7%)	1mo	$367,900	$170	55
5619 Teal Marlene Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,140 (+6%)	2mo	$410,525	$192	53
5065 Marcasca Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,102 (+4%)	3mo	$331,990	$158	51
1464 Sundown Glen Ln	0.52mi	3/3.0	1,765 (-13%)	2mo	$299,990	$170	50
27103 Blue Pool Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,134 (+6%)	2mo	$299,888	$141	49
5607 Teal Marlene Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,720 (-15%)	2mo	$363,815	$212	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-101,203
• Equity at exit: $56,161

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-159,753
• Equity at exit: $32,567

Cash invested: $105,465 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 256 active · 97 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.8 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $338,490 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 94 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 4013
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,650 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,975
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$471 /mo · $5,650/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,295

Max offer price $302,954

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-249	-5% $-379	+0% $-509	+5% $-640	+10% $-770
Rent	-10% $-719	-5% $-614	+0% $-509	+5% $-405	+10% $-300
Rate	-1.0pp $-320	-0.5pp $-414	base $-509	+0.5pp $-607	+1.0pp $-706

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,165
• Closing costs: $11,300
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4946 Skybluff Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2410	$2,650	$1.10	75d	1	0.18mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1709	$2,376	$1.39	0d	23	0.31mi
4806 Sand Clouds Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2752	$3,095	$1.12	48d	1	0.34mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	139d	1	0.43mi
1496 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2135	$2,500	$1.17	75d	1	0.45mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,049	$1.61	59d	24	0.52mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	48d	1	0.52mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	1890	$2,400	$1.27	0d	29	0.52mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Unit 315 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,418	$1.62	47d	1	0.52mi
4607 Dana Cove Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2152	$2,500	$1.16	6d	1	0.57mi
4696 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2156	$2,395	$1.11	20d	1	0.58mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	70d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	85d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	116d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2116	$3,050	$1.44	51d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2116	$3,050	$1.44	39d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	38d	1	0.59mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Unit 27327 Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	47d	1	0.71mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	139d	1	0.77mi
5822 Majestic Sky Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,249	$1.38	20d	1	0.78mi
1024 Greenshank Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2390	$2,900	$1.21	8d	1	0.85mi
1008 Caramel Shores Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2492	$3,100	$1.24	39d	1	0.87mi
409 Aurora Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1964	$2,100	$1.07	68d	1	1.00mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	1d	1	1.02mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	41d	1	1.02mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	113d	1	1.02mi
808 Marisol Bay Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2423	$2,695	$1.11	36d	1	1.03mi
26123 Venus Trap Trl Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1785	$2,200	$1.23	55d	1	1.06mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	4d	1	1.08mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,845	$1.20	19d	1	1.11mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	108d	1	1.13mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	108d	1	1.14mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,020	$1.31	68d	1	1.14mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,005	$1.13	19d	1	1.14mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,005	$1.13	19d	1	1.16mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	93d	1	1.17mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,005	$1.13	19d	1	1.21mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	120d	1	1.22mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,945	$1.16	19d	1	1.25mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	139d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $314,990 Active 344 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $314,990 Active 343 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $324,990 Active 342 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $324,990 Active 341 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $324,990 Active 340 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $324,990 Active 339 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $324,990 Active 338 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $324,990 Active 337 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $324,990 Active 336 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $324,990 Active 335 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $324,990 Active 334 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 333 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $324,990 Active 332 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $324,990 Active 331 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $324,990 Active 325 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $324,990 Active 324 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $324,990 Active 322 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $324,990 Active 320 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $324,990 Active 318 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $324,990 Active 317 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $324,990 Active 316 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $324,990 Active 314 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $324,990 Active 313 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $324,990 Active 312 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $324,990 Active 311 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $324,990 Active 310 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $324,990 Active 309 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $324,990 Active 308 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $324,990 Active 307 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $324,990 Active 306 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $324,990 Active 305 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $324,990 Active 304 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $324,990 Active 303 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $324,990 Active 302 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $324,990 Active 301 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $324,990 Active 300 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $324,990 Active 299 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $324,990 Active 298 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $324,990 Active 297 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $324,990 Active 295 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $324,990 Active 294 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $324,990 Active 293 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $324,990 Active 292 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $324,990 Active 289 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $324,990 Active 288 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $324,990 Active 287 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $324,990 Active 286 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $324,990 Active 284 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $324,990 Active 282 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $324,990 Active 281 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,099
• − Property taxes: −$5,650
• − Insurance: −$1,883
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,544
• − Management: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$10,957
• Taxable loss: −$12,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,090
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Katy, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert King El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $319,990 Zillow