22585 Nebula Way · Connerton, FL 34637

$301,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $208/sqft · 17% below area Est $363k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

In this single-story home, the kitchen, dining room and family room cohesively flow together with a contemporary open floorplan. The adjacent owner's suite offers a comfortable place to relax with a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide space for the rest of the family.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-600/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.6% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $257,764 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $362,972
• List price: $301,900
• Delta: -16.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22313 Nebula Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	24mo	$349,900	$239	68
7796 Painted Sky Pl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+8%)	13mo	$344,900	$222	60
8086 Painted Sky Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+8%)	15mo	$359,990	$231	57
22111 Nebula Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	14mo	$370,000	$237	55
8122 Ehren Cemetery Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+8%)	17mo	$481,000	$307	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-33,141
• Equity at exit: $65,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-15,516
• Equity at exit: $62,027

Cash invested: $84,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $315,150 ($213/sqft)
• Median days on market: 10 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,583
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,528/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,641

Max offer price $294,661

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $54	+0% $-50	+5% $-154	+10% $-259
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-152	+0% $-50	+5% $52	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $27	base $-50	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,475
• Closing costs: $9,057
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,450	$1.31	75d	1	0.20mi
8879 Coqui Song Ln Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1851	$2,300	$1.24	44d	1	0.29mi
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	108d	1	0.45mi
8938 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1851	$2,550	$1.38	79d	1	0.49mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,145	$1.34	44d	1	0.50mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,050	$1.28	29d	1	0.50mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,050	$1.28	32d	1	0.50mi
9001 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,100	$1.31	62d	1	0.55mi
9094 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,100	$1.31	10d	1	0.62mi
8930 Ehren Cutoff Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,200	$1.70	10d	1	0.76mi
8897 Flourish Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,149	$1.33	10d	1	0.77mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	77d	1	1.22mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,050	$1.28	80d	1	1.31mi
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	110d	1	1.33mi
21881 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,000	$1.25	4d	1	1.34mi
7847 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1807	$2,131	$1.18	44d	1	1.37mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	120d	1	1.39mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	100d	1	1.40mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,945	$1.21	77d	1	1.40mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	94d	1	1.40mi
7076 Gulf Cypress Ave Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,450	$1.34	10d	1	1.44mi
7076 Gulf Cypress Ave Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,450	$1.34	0d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $299,400

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property (Annapolis plan)Spec inventory
• Exterior features: Located at 22585 Nebula Way, Land O' Lakes, FL 34637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Annapolis plan)Living area 1,448

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-07-20
   pricedays on market $301,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-07-18
   pricedays on market $301,400 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-07-16
   days on market $299,400 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-07-15
   days on market $299,400 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $299,400 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-07-10
   days on market $299,400 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-07-10
   price $299,400 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-07-09
   pricedays on market $302,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-07-07
   days on market $317,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-07-06
    days on market $317,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-07-06
    pricedays on market $317,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $314,400 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-07-03
    days on market $313,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-07-03
    pricedays on market $313,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-24
    pricedays on market $312,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-06-18
    days on market $312,400 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-06-17
    days on market $312,400 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-06-16
    days on market $312,400 Active 2 DOM
19. 2026-06-15
    remarks 307-char remark
20. 2026-06-15
    listed $312,400 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,911
• − Property taxes: −$4,528
• − Insurance: −$1,510
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,475
• − Management: −$2,475
• − Depreciation: −$8,783
• Taxable loss: −$5,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,380
• After-tax cash flow: $779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,240–$21,720 screening

This single-story home features a contemporary open floorplan with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready with a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental appeal and comfort of the home ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Connerton Elementary School C- FL #976/2,144 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Pine View Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Land O' Lakes High School C+ FL #106/667 Nat'l #3,545/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $299,400

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property (Annapolis plan)Spec inventory
• Exterior features: Located at 22585 Nebula Way, Land O' Lakes, FL 34637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Annapolis plan)Living area 1,448