22585 Nebula Way · Connerton, FL 34637

$312,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $346k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

In this single-story home, the kitchen, dining room and family room cohesively flow together with a contemporary open floorplan. The adjacent owner's suite offers a comfortable place to relax with a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide space for the rest of the family.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area 1,448
• Financial info: List price $312,400
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (including 2-car garage)
• Security:
• Utilities:
• Home design: Annapolis plan; New construction (spec)
• Construction:
• Exterior features:

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $288,938 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $346,072
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22313 Nebula Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	21mo	$349,900	$239	70
22294 Blazing Star Run	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	22mo	$355,900	$244	69
22288 Pleasant Morning Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	22mo	$349,900	$239	67
22238 Blazing Star Run	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	23mo	$341,875	$234	65
7796 Painted Sky Pl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+8%)	10mo	$344,900	$222	62
8086 Painted Sky Pl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+8%)	12mo	$359,990	$231	60
22111 Nebula Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	11mo	$370,000	$237	58
8122 Ehren Cemetery Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+8%)	14mo	$481,000	$307	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-23,116
• Equity at exit: $67,415

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $8,081
• Equity at exit: $64,185

Cash invested: $87,472 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,889 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,638
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$390 /mo · $4,686/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,733

Max offer price $312,400

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,100
• Closing costs: $9,372
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,650	$1.42	17d	1	0.20mi
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	12d	1	0.45mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,700	$1.44	24d	1	1.22mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,099	$1.31	12d	1	1.31mi
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	14d	1	1.33mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	24d	1	1.39mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	5d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $312,400 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,400 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,400 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 307-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $312,400 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,499
• − Property taxes: −$4,686
• − Insurance: −$1,562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,774
• − Management: −$2,774
• − Depreciation: −$9,088
• Taxable loss: −$3,710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$890
• After-tax cash flow: $2,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home features a contemporary open floorplan with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready with a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental appeal and comfort of the home

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental appeal and comfort of the home ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B