10178 Allen Dr SW · Covington, GA 30014

$220,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,769 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 534 Days on market

Built 1971 10,018 sqft lot $124/sqft · 12% below area Est $250k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A beautifully renovated 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch home. This home features stylish updates including stainless steel kitchen appliances, granite countertops, and updated flooring throughout. Situated on a large level lot. Conveniently located near shopping, dining and more! Do not miss this great opportunity!

Key facts

• Large level lot
• Updated flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• LARGE LEVEL LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.8% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#396 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 479 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 534 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $220k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 534 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.60%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,078
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -12.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9124 Comstock Ct	0.24mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,708 (-3%)	10mo	$260,000	$152	69
8302 N Sterling Lakes Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,694 (-4%)	12mo	$210,000	$124	59
8201 N Sterling Lakes Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,862 (+5%)	6mo	$250,000	$134	57
8120 Highland Dr SW	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+8%)	4mo	$326,500	$171	55
8156 Sterling Lakes Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,786 (+1%)	23mo	$220,000	$123	50
835 Navajo Trl	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,694 (-4%)	11mo	$265,000	$156	49
120 Ella Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,907 (+8%)	2mo	$275,000	$144	49
9415 Bandywood Dr SW	0.56mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,840 (+4%)	19mo	$319,000	$173	44
30 Abbey Ct	0.64mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,907 (+8%)	24mo	$310,000	$163	32
10134 Jefferson Village Dr SW	0.49mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,011 (+14%)	18mo	$250,000	$124	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-22,586
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-16,552
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30014

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 479
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,816/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $412	-5% $350	+0% $287	+5% $225	+10% $163
Rent	-10% $119	-5% $203	+0% $287	+5% $371	+10% $456
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $343	base $287	+0.5pp $230	+1.0pp $172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9161 Thrash St SW Covington, GA	4.0	2.0	1272	$1,481	$1.16	44d	1	0.17mi
195 Ridge Pointe Dr Covington, GA	5.0	2.5	2005	$2,230	$1.11	20d	1	0.69mi
120 Ella Dr Covington, GA	4.0	2.0	1907	$2,101	$1.10	13d	1	0.71mi
7546 Saffron Ave Covington, GA	4.0	2.5	2338	$2,305	$0.99	44d	1	0.89mi
6328 Avery St SW Covington, GA	4.0	2.5	2350	$1,300	$0.55	44d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 534 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 533 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 532 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 531 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 529 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 528 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 525 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 524 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 523 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,000 Active 520 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 519 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 518 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 517 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 516 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    price $220,000 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    A beautifully renovated 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch home. This home features stylish updates including stainless steel kitchen appliances, granite countertops, and updated flooring throughout. Situated on a large level lot. Conveniently located near shopping, dining and more! Do not miss this great opportunity!

16. 2025-07-19
    price $241,000 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    A beautifully renovated 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch home. This home features stylish updates including stainless steel kitchen appliances, granite countertops, and updated flooring throughout. Situated on a large level lot. Conveniently located near shopping, dining and more! Do not miss this great opportunity!

17. 2025-05-23
    price $250,000 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    A beautifully renovated 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch home. This home features stylish updates including stainless steel kitchen appliances, granite countertops, and updated flooring throughout. Situated on a large level lot. Conveniently located near shopping, dining and more! Do not miss this great opportunity!

18. 2024-12-31
    listed $258,000 New 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    A beautifully renovated 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch home. This home features stylish updates including stainless steel kitchen appliances, granite countertops, and updated flooring throughout. Situated on a large level lot. Conveniently located near shopping, dining and more! Do not miss this great opportunity!

19. 2020-05-04
    soldstatus $94,500
20. 2020-04-29
    soldstatus $94,500 Closed 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Gorgeous renovation qualifies for FHA! New! New! New! ready for you! 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, freshened up and ready for you to call home. (Don't miss the cool 3D Virtual tour, view this home from your home, now!) No blind offers, Send all questions and offers to the Seller, agent is Transaction Agent only.

21. 2020-04-29
    soldstatus $94,500 Sold

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Gorgeous renovation qualifies for FHA! New! New! New! ready for you! 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, freshened up and ready for you to call home. (Don't miss the cool 3D Virtual tour, view this home from your home, now!) No blind offers, Send all questions and offers to the Seller, agent is Transaction Agent only.

22. 2020-04-17
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Gorgeous renovation qualifies for FHA! New! New! New! ready for you! 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, freshened up and ready for you to call home. (Don't miss the cool 3D Virtual tour, view this home from your home, now!) No blind offers, Send all questions and offers to the Seller, agent is Transaction Agent only.

23. 2020-04-17
    status Pending 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Gorgeous renovation qualifies for FHA! New! New! New! ready for you! 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, freshened up and ready for you to call home. (Don't miss the cool 3D Virtual tour, view this home from your home, now!) No blind offers, Send all questions and offers to the Seller, agent is Transaction Agent only.

24. 2020-04-13
    listed $99,900 Active 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Gorgeous renovation qualifies for FHA! New! New! New! ready for you! 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, freshened up and ready for you to call home. (Don't miss the cool 3D Virtual tour, view this home from your home, now!) No blind offers, Send all questions and offers to the Seller, agent is Transaction Agent only.

25. 2020-04-13
    listed $99,900 New

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Gorgeous renovation qualifies for FHA! New! New! New! ready for you! 4 bedrooms, 1 bath, freshened up and ready for you to call home. (Don't miss the cool 3D Virtual tour, view this home from your home, now!) No blind offers, Send all questions and offers to the Seller, agent is Transaction Agent only.

26. 2020-03-06
    historical
27. 2020-02-20
    price $69,900
28. 2020-02-06
    price $74,900
29. 2020-01-09
    price $79,900
30. 2019-12-27
    price $89,900
31. 2019-11-05
    listed $94,900 New
32. 2019-10-16
    soldstatus $74,900
33. 2006-08-02
    soldstatus $80,000
34. 2006-05-10
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,024 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$208/yr (+$17/mo · 11.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,816
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$37
• After-tax cash flow: $3,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton County
• NCES district ID: 1303930
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,768
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8816
• State rank: #137 of 174 in GA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #19602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Newton County · 104,393 people
• City population: 104,393
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,425
• Household income: $72,254
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1934.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,372 people
• By 2030: 124,234 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 135,550 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 145,309 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 166,843 · +40.9%
• By 2100: 175,800 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.3% · R 42.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+2.4 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.50%
• Current HPI: 270.9868
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+214.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $220,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $241,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $250,000 GAMLS
• 2024-12-31 Listed $258,000 GAMLS
• 2020-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $94,500 Public Records
• 2020-04-29 Sold (MLS) $94,500 GAMLS
• 2020-04-29 Sold (MLS) $94,500 FMLS
• 2020-04-17 Pending — GAMLS
• 2020-04-17 Pending — FMLS
• 2020-04-13 Listed $99,900 GAMLS
• 2020-04-13 Listed $99,900 FMLS
• 2020-03-06 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2020-02-20 Price Changed $69,900 GAMLS
• 2020-02-06 Price Changed $74,900 GAMLS
• 2020-01-09 Price Changed $79,900 GAMLS
• 2019-12-27 Price Changed $89,900 GAMLS
• 2019-11-05 Listed $94,900 GAMLS
• 2019-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records
• 2006-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,816 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.