4398 Varano Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$204,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,813 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1967 0.27 ac lot $113/sqft · at area comps Est $225k · 9% under $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4/2 home featuring a bonus room and a two-car garage. The property offers a functional layout with ample living space and great potential. It requires only minor TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1967

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $204k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $204k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.42%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,950
• List price: $204,000
• Delta: -6.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11875 Old Halls Ferry Rd	0.28mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,802 (-1%)	4mo	$269,000	$149	73
11519 Galba Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,955 (+8%)	8mo	$239,900	$123	71
11630 New Halls Ferry Rd	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,962 (+8%)	1mo	$160,000	$82	69
4429 Papal Dr	0.15mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,994 (+10%)	2mo	$245,000	$123	66
11758 Galba Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,018 (+11%)	3mo	$199,900	$99	64
30 Rolling Hills Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	1,770 (-2%)	8mo	$204,400	$115	64
2185 Pohlman Rd	0.64mi	4/3.0	1,797 (-1%)	2mo	$299,000	$166	63
2390 Grassland Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,653 (-9%)	4mo	$175,000	$106	61
4461 Rhine Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,607 (-11%)	5mo	$150,000	$93	59
4972 Bristol Rock Rd	0.50mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,893 (+4%)	11mo	$279,900	$148	55
19 Bridekirk Ct	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,624 (-10%)	1mo	$220,000	$135	54
11256 Liberty Landing Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,981 (+9%)	8mo	$184,900	$93	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $137,442
• Equity at exit: $183,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.28×
• Total profit: $415,862
• Equity at exit: $396,327

Cash invested: $57,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,666/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,756

Max offer price $204,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,000
• Closing costs: $6,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	2d	1	0.40mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,354	$1.10	2d	17	0.63mi
4440 Parker Rd Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,711	$0.90	2d	1	0.69mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	2d	1	1.06mi
5364 Trailview Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	3.0	1992	$2,330	$1.17	22d	1	1.41mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1561	$2,100	$1.35	2d	1	1.48mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $204,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 170 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    status Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Spacious 4/2 home featuring a bonus room and a two-car garage. The property offers a functional layout with ample living space and great potential. It requires only minor TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch.

17. 2026-03-24
    status Pending 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Spacious 4/2 home featuring a bonus room and a two-car garage. The property offers a functional layout with ample living space and great potential. It requires only minor TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch.

18. 2026-02-27
    price $216,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Spacious 4/2 home featuring a bonus room and a two-car garage. The property offers a functional layout with ample living space and great potential. It requires only minor TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch.

19. 2026-01-30
    price $223,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Spacious 4/2 home featuring a bonus room and a two-car garage. The property offers a functional layout with ample living space and great potential. It requires only minor TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch.

20. 2026-01-09
    price $230,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Spacious 4/2 home featuring a bonus room and a two-car garage. The property offers a functional layout with ample living space and great potential. It requires only minor TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch.

21. 2025-12-05
    price $240,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Spacious 4/2 home featuring a bonus room and a two-car garage. The property offers a functional layout with ample living space and great potential. It requires only minor TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch.

22. 2025-11-12
    listed $250,000 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Spacious 4/2 home featuring a bonus room and a two-car garage. The property offers a functional layout with ample living space and great potential. It requires only minor TLC, making it an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch.

23. 2023-11-02
    historical $1,465
24. 2023-10-24
    price $1,465
25. 2023-10-22
    price $1,625
26. 2023-10-07
    price $1,795
27. 2023-09-29
    price $1,845
28. 2023-09-15
    price $1,945
29. 2023-09-13
    listed $2,035
30. 2016-03-22
    soldstatus $90,000
31. 2016-03-21
    soldstatus Closed 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    **NEW*NEW PRICE**MOTIVATED SELLER** + GREAT FINANCING!!Beautifully maintained 2000+ sq ft two story offers 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, 3 Walk In Closets plus Closets Galore for all your things. Living and Dining Combination w/ Hardwood Floors, Cozy Family Room & Eat-In Kitchen including Updated Appliances ++ Refrigerator. Full*Walk-out Lower Level +Washer/Dryer as is. Beautifully Landscaped is this Fenced Huge Yard & a 2 car Oversized garage. Updated Electrical w/200 amp Service, HVAC (09) Roof (06). One of the largest homes in Seven Hills. Well maintained by present owner of 40+ yrs. A home that is Ready & Waiting for YOU. 1st Time Home Buyers see this: *Enjoy 0 Down payment, 0 Closing Cost, No PMI & Low-Interest Rate*

32. 2016-03-16
    historical 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    **NEW*NEW PRICE**MOTIVATED SELLER** + GREAT FINANCING!!Beautifully maintained 2000+ sq ft two story offers 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, 3 Walk In Closets plus Closets Galore for all your things. Living and Dining Combination w/ Hardwood Floors, Cozy Family Room & Eat-In Kitchen including Updated Appliances ++ Refrigerator. Full*Walk-out Lower Level +Washer/Dryer as is. Beautifully Landscaped is this Fenced Huge Yard & a 2 car Oversized garage. Updated Electrical w/200 amp Service, HVAC (09) Roof (06). One of the largest homes in Seven Hills. Well maintained by present owner of 40+ yrs. A home that is Ready & Waiting for YOU. 1st Time Home Buyers see this: *Enjoy 0 Down payment, 0 Closing Cost, No PMI & Low-Interest Rate*

33. 2015-12-07
    listed $119,000 Active 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    **NEW*NEW PRICE**MOTIVATED SELLER** + GREAT FINANCING!!Beautifully maintained 2000+ sq ft two story offers 4 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, 3 Walk In Closets plus Closets Galore for all your things. Living and Dining Combination w/ Hardwood Floors, Cozy Family Room & Eat-In Kitchen including Updated Appliances ++ Refrigerator. Full*Walk-out Lower Level +Washer/Dryer as is. Beautifully Landscaped is this Fenced Huge Yard & a 2 car Oversized garage. Updated Electrical w/200 amp Service, HVAC (09) Roof (06). One of the largest homes in Seven Hills. Well maintained by present owner of 40+ yrs. A home that is Ready & Waiting for YOU. 1st Time Home Buyers see this: *Enjoy 0 Down payment, 0 Closing Cost, No PMI & Low-Interest Rate*

34. 2015-11-06
    price $124,000
35. 2015-08-21
    price $129,850

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,666 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,666 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,427
• − Property taxes: −$2,666
• − Insurance: −$1,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,935
• Taxable loss: −$177
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $3,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+66.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $216,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $223,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $230,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $240,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Listed $250,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-02 Rental Removed $1,465 RENT.
• 2023-10-24 Price Changed $1,465 RENT.
• 2023-10-22 Price Changed $1,625 RENT.
• 2023-10-07 Price Changed $1,795 RENT.
• 2023-09-29 Price Changed $1,845 RENT.
• 2023-09-15 Price Changed $1,945 RENT.
• 2023-09-13 Listed for Rent $2,035 RENT.
• 2016-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-21 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-16 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-07 Listed $119,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-06 Price Changed $124,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-21 Price Changed $129,850 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,666 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.