8487 N River Rock Dr · Freeland, MI 48623

$3,400

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2025 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come and check this new construction duplex out! One unit is already rented for above market rate rents (12 month lease). Grab this property to add to your rental portfolio or move into the vacant size for a very reasonably priced new construction unit.

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two units with current rents reported: one at $2,300 and one at $1,900

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 4 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Multi-family residential income property; One story; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Slab foundation; Built with above-grade finished area of 2,800
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Public maintained road; Zoned residential

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Separate meters for utilities
• Interior features: High ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Concrete basement

🏗️ New construction. The $3,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $445,200.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $3k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $3k).
• Recommended offer: $3k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 3.2% in Freeland — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#230 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Freeland Community School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #46 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 196.4% of price.

Recommended offer $3,349 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.40%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 19.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $445,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8442 Cottonwood Dr	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,816 (+1%)	4mo	$399,000	$142	70
10606 Tall Pine Ln	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,617 (-6%)	1mo	$485,000	$185	70
8643 Ashland Pl	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,521 (-10%)	1mo	$400,000	$159	59
10224 Sarle Rd	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,800 (0%)	2mo	$461,000	$165	58
8311 Goldfinch Rd	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,854 (+2%)	10mo	$340,000	$119	58
8554 Oakhill Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,462 (-12%)	6mo	$420,000	$171	55
8614 Summer Ridge Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,488 (-11%)	11mo	$379,000	$152	49
10909 Sarle Rd. Rd	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,441 (-13%)	10mo	$610,000	$250	43
8981 N Meadows Ct	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,940 (+5%)	12mo	$529,900	$180	43
8421 Waxwing Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	3,020 (+8%)	9mo	$329,000	$109	41
8680 Ashland Pl	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,508 (-10%)	11mo	$379,900	$151	40
8699 Ashland Pl	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,444 (-13%)	8mo	$365,000	$149	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -46.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-174,002
• Equity at exit: $66,381

10-year hold

• IRR: -85.5%
• Equity multiple: -1.27×
• Total profit: $-282,600
• Equity at exit: $38,493

Cash invested: $124,656 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48623

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 0.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,335
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$556 /mo · $6,678/yr
• Insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-1,600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,895

Max offer price $213,715

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,292	-5% $-1,446	+0% $-1,600	+5% $-1,754	+10% $-1,907
Rent	-10% $-1,747	-5% $-1,674	+0% $-1,600	+5% $-1,526	+10% $-1,452
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,376	-0.5pp $-1,487	base $-1,600	+0.5pp $-1,715	+1.0pp $-1,832

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,300
• Closing costs: $13,356
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-26
   price $3,400
2. 2026-05-13
   soldstatus $3,004 Closed
3. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-13
   listed $519,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $20 · $2/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $36 · $3/mo
• Expected delta: +$16/yr (+$1/mo · 79.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,938
• − Property taxes: −$6,678
• − Insurance: −$2,226
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$12,951
• Taxable loss: −$27,948
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,708
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,489/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Freeland Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2615060
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $70,875
• Composite: 50.98/100
• National rank: #1779
• State rank: #46 of 540 in MI

Livability — Freeland

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #5824

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeland, MI
• City population: 15,126
• Population (ZIP): 15,126

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.02%
• Current HPI: 213.8908
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $3,400 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-13 Sold (MLS) $3,004 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-06 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-13 Listed $519,900 REALCOMP