5109 Avenue J · Houston, TX 77011

$369,900

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,816 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 1,500 sqft lot $204/sqft · at area comps Est $381k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience modern city living in this stunning three-story new construction home located in the heart of vibrant EaDo. This 3-bedroom, 3-bath residence offers an open-concept layout with soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and designer finishes throughout. The sleek kitchen features quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances, perfect for entertaining. Each bedroom includes its own full bathroom, offering ultimate privacy and comfort—ideal for guests or roommates. The home also includes a two-car garage and no HOA. Located just minutes from Downtown, the East River Project, and local dining hotspots, this home blends urban convenience with upscale style. Don’t miss the opportunity to own in one of Houston’s fastest-growing neighborhoods!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Full bathroom
• Two-car garage

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FULL BATHROOM
• TWO-CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $370k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-597 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,480/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $40k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$64k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $247,963 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.92%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,301
• List price: $369,900
• Delta: -2.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5103 Avenue J	0.00mi	3/3.5	1,816 (0%)	3mo	$399,900	$220	97
5107 Avenue J	0.00mi	3/3.5	1,816 (0%)	3mo	$369,900	$204	97
5311 Avenue J	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,831 (+1%)	4mo	$279,000	$152	88
5005 Brady St	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,776 (-2%)	0mo	$375,000	$211	76
125 Eastwood St	0.51mi	3/3.5	1,856 (+2%)	6mo	$399,700	$215	67
137 Eastwood St	0.58mi	3/3.5	1,912 (+5%)	1mo	$369,900	$193	63
747 Dumble St	0.73mi	3/3.5	1,744 (-4%)	2mo	$369,990	$212	58
135 Eastwood St	0.58mi	3/3.5	1,914 (+5%)	9mo	$389,700	$204	57
703 Dumble St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,801 (-1%)	8mo	$500,000	$278	52
127 Eastwood St	0.56mi	3/3.5	1,981 (+9%)	8mo	$444,700	$224	52
5258 Texas St	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,598 (-12%)	8mo	$360,000	$225	42
5011 Walker St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,720 (-5%)	2mo	$299,000	$174	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $156,180
• Equity at exit: $333,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $476,908
• Equity at exit: $718,634

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77011

• Home prices YoY: 30.1%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$462 /mo · $5,548/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,236

Max offer price $283,457

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Edgewood St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2577	$3,250	$1.26	43d	1	0.36mi
2 Jenkins St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,250	$1.81	43d	1	0.59mi
5502 Texas St Unit 1514806P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1808	$7,216	$3.99	7d	1	0.59mi
5504 Texas St Unit 1514810P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1808	$7,026	$3.89	3d	1	0.60mi
6403 Avenue C Unit 1019625P Houston, TX	2.0–8.0	1.0–4.0	1232	$3,466	$2.81	2d	2	0.80mi
5121 Polk St Unit 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	24d	1	0.94mi
4952 Polk St Unit 1531107P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1980	$2,327	$1.18	7d	1	0.96mi
4001 Dallas St Unit 1029264P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2174	$5,077	$2.34	5d	1	1.23mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,593	$1.59	5d	1	1.26mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	7d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,900 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,900 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $369,900 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,900 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $369,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-04-19
    status Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Experience modern city living in this stunning three-story new construction home located in the heart of vibrant EaDo. This 3-bedroom, 3-bath residence offers an open-concept layout with soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and designer finishes throughout. The sleek kitchen features quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances, perfect for entertaining. Each bedroom includes its own full bathroom, offering ultimate privacy and comfort—ideal for guests or roommates. The home also includes a two-car garage and no HOA. Located just minutes from Downtown, the East River Project, and local dining hotspots, this home blends urban convenience with upscale style. Don’t miss the opportunity to own in one of Houston’s fastest-growing neighborhoods!

13. 2026-04-14
    status Pending 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Experience modern city living in this stunning three-story new construction home located in the heart of vibrant EaDo. This 3-bedroom, 3-bath residence offers an open-concept layout with soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and designer finishes throughout. The sleek kitchen features quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances, perfect for entertaining. Each bedroom includes its own full bathroom, offering ultimate privacy and comfort—ideal for guests or roommates. The home also includes a two-car garage and no HOA. Located just minutes from Downtown, the East River Project, and local dining hotspots, this home blends urban convenience with upscale style. Don’t miss the opportunity to own in one of Houston’s fastest-growing neighborhoods!

14. 2026-03-17
    listed $369,900 Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    Experience modern city living in this stunning three-story new construction home located in the heart of vibrant EaDo. This 3-bedroom, 3-bath residence offers an open-concept layout with soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and designer finishes throughout. The sleek kitchen features quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances, perfect for entertaining. Each bedroom includes its own full bathroom, offering ultimate privacy and comfort—ideal for guests or roommates. The home also includes a two-car garage and no HOA. Located just minutes from Downtown, the East River Project, and local dining hotspots, this home blends urban convenience with upscale style. Don’t miss the opportunity to own in one of Houston’s fastest-growing neighborhoods!

15. 2026-01-12
    historical
16. 2025-12-17
    historical $2,850
17. 2025-11-14
    listed $2,850
18. 2025-11-03
    listed $379,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$5,548
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,380
• − Management: −$2,380
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable loss: −$13,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,332
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern, three-story new construction home in EaDo offers an open-concept layout with designer finishes and ample natural light. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,940
• Household income: $50,133
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 29% White 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 81%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 68.18%
• Current HPI: 295.1198
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.93%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $369,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Rental Removed $2,850 HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed for Rent $2,850 HARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $379,900 HARMLS