425 Hortense Screven Rd · Hortense, GA 31543

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,757 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1973 3.51 ac lot $88/sqft · 41% below area Est $261k · 41% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on 3.51 acres in Hortense, GA, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 1,757 square feet and a functional layout ready for updates. The property will require a full clean-out and is being sold as-is. It is currently occupied, with an eviction in progress. Seller plans to clean and improve the property once vacant if it remains available, and pricing may be adjusted at that time. A good fit for buyers looking to take on a project—whether as an investment or for those willing to invest sweat equity and build value over time.

Key facts

• 3.51 acre lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 51 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-480/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brantley County (rural): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #26 of 174 in GA (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Brantley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Brantley County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,023 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,946
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -40.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
337 Hortense Screven Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,661 (-6%)	22mo	$305,000	$184	68
19361 Hwy 301 Hwy	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,768 (+1%)	12mo	$156,000	$88	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $41,256
• Equity at exit: $96,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $123,548
• Equity at exit: $174,072

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31543

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,519/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $147,934

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $155,000 Pending 51 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $155,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-04-07
   listed $155,000 Active 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Situated on 3.51 acres in Hortense, GA, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 1,757 square feet and a functional layout ready for updates. The property will require a full clean-out and is being sold as-is. It is currently occupied, with an eviction in progress. Seller plans to clean and improve the property once vacant if it remains available, and pricing may be adjusted at that time. A good fit for buyers looking to take on a project—whether as an investment or for those willing to invest sweat equity and build value over time.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,519
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,171
• − Management: −$1,171
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$3,185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$764
• After-tax cash flow: $284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brantley County
• NCES district ID: 1300480
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,053
• Composite: 37.85/100
• National rank: #4328
• State rank: #26 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hortense

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hortense, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,914

Population outlook (Brantley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,422 people
• By 2030: 18,220 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 17,441 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 16,044 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 11,707 · -36.5%
• By 2100: 7,006 · -62.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Brantley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+82.5) · D 8.7% · R 91.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.4pp toward R · 2008: -63.1pp · 2024: -82.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+82.5 2020: R+81.2 2016: R+78.6 2012: R+67.0 2008: R+63.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.90%
• Current HPI: 167.0028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $155,000 GIAR

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,519 · +18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.