615 1st St · Kenyon, MN 55946

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1917 10,497 sqft lot $146/sqft · 8% below area Est $315k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location, This home has so much potential, large lot. Very affordable living.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1917

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area listed (1,980); Above ground total and below ground areas provided; Lot dimensions approximately 75x140 (0.241 acre)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage not specified, 1-car garage with 24x16 dimensions
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer (in street); 150 amp electric service with circuit breakers; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; More than 2 stories; Entry includes a foyer and front porch; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Roof age 8 years or less; Basement: block crawl space, unfinished
• Exterior features: Covered deck and front porch; Wood exterior; Light tree coverage; City street frontage (public maintained road); Wheelchair ramp(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen window
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (three located on the upper level); Bedroom sizes include 13x12, 13x12, 13x11, and 9x7
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Main floor 3/4 bath; Upper level full bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Natural woodwork and paneled doors; Kitchen window; Walk-up attic; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (hookup); Laundry located on the upper level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-467 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (28.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (37.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#172 in MN, #3,700 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Kenyon-Wanamingo School District (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #230 of 301 in MN (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Goodhue County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Goodhue County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $290k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $180,000 (37.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.90%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,068
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -7.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $128,118
• Equity at exit: $261,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $400,576
• Equity at exit: $563,212

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55946

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,972/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,391

Max offer price $207,451

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-303	-5% $-385	+0% $-467	+5% $-549	+10% $-631
Rent	-10% $-609	-5% $-538	+0% $-467	+5% $-396	+10% $-325
Rate	-1.0pp $-321	-0.5pp $-393	base $-467	+0.5pp $-542	+1.0pp $-618

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
608 Red Wing Ave Kenyon, MN	3.0	1.5	1456	$1,800	$1.24	44d	1	0.44mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,900 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $289,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    historical $289,900 720-char remark
15. 2025-12-10
    soldstatus $86,982
16. 2025-12-09
    soldstatus $141,207 Sold 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Great location, This home has so much potential, large lot. Very affordable living.

17. 2025-11-13
    status Pending 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Great location, This home has so much potential, large lot. Very affordable living.

18. 2025-10-23
    historical Contingent - Inspection 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Great location, This home has so much potential, large lot. Very affordable living.

19. 2025-10-16
    listed $135,000 Active 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    Great location, This home has so much potential, large lot. Very affordable living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,972 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$137/yr (+$11/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,972
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$10,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,628
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenyon-Wanamingo School District
• NCES district ID: 2717100
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $58,681
• Composite: 33.23/100
• National rank: #5522
• State rank: #230 of 301 in MN

Livability — Kenyon

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #3700

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kenyon, MN
• Population (ZIP): 3,366

Population outlook (Goodhue County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,532 people
• By 2030: 46,185 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 44,531 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 41,532 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 33,745 · -27.5%
• By 2100: 23,716 · -49.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 29% Lithuanian 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Goodhue

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.8% · R 57.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+18.0 2012: R+3.0 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.91%
• Current HPI: 331.1421
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+114.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $86,982 Public Records
• 2025-12-09 Sold (MLS) $141,207 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listed $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,972 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.