290 S Burt St · Craig, NE 68019

$125,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1910 $42/sqft · 48% below area Est $242k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a amazing home. 3 bedrooms . And a kitchen on on main. Downstairs has a newly remodeled bathroom. And another bedroom. And yep another kitchen. Has a 2 car garage. On the large lot it also has a 1 car garage. And u can have chickens. Currently rented for 1400 a month

Key facts

• Large lot
• Kitchen on main
• Built 1910

Tags

• KITCHEN ON MAIN
• NEWLY REMODELED BATHROOM
• LARGE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#495 in NE) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oakland Craig Public Schools (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #39 of 111 in NE (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oakland Craig Elementary (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #233 of 502 statewide, top 52%, 223 students, 15% FRL); Oakland Craig Junior-Senior High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #49 of 261 statewide, top 26%, 193 students, 4% FRL) — zoned schools average 9% FRL vs 27% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Burt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Burt County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $125k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.24%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,226
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -48.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $87,102
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.90×
• Total profit: $241,557
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68019

• Home prices YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,557/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,060

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $334	+0% $299	+5% $263	+10% $228
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $242	+0% $299	+5% $355	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $330	base $299	+0.5pp $266	+1.0pp $233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 161 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 160 DOM
17. 2025-12-18
    listed $125,000 Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    This is a amazing home. 3 bedrooms . And a kitchen on on main. Downstairs has a newly remodeled bathroom. And another bedroom. And yep another kitchen. Has a 2 car garage. On the large lot it also has a 1 car garage. And u can have chickens. Currently rented for 1400 a month

18. 2025-11-21
    historical
19. 2025-11-06
    price $130,000
20. 2025-10-21
    listed $150,000 New
21. 2025-10-21
    soldstatus $58,000
22. 2025-04-16
    historical
23. 2025-04-10
    price $89,900
24. 2025-03-24
    price $99,900
25. 2025-03-03
    price $125,000
26. 2024-11-24
    status Back On Market
27. 2024-10-18
    status Pending
28. 2024-10-15
    listed $129,000 New
29. 2024-10-03
    historical
30. 2024-07-20
    price $130,000
31. 2024-06-16
    price $135,000
32. 2024-06-01
    listed $139,000 New
33. 2014-01-22
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,557 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,162 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$606/yr (+$50/mo · 38.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,557
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,674
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$402
• After-tax cash flow: $3,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakland Craig Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3174640
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,268
• Composite: 46.97/100
• National rank: #2354
• State rank: #39 of 111 in NE

Livability — Craig

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #21262

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Craig, NE
• Population (ZIP): 441

Population outlook (Burt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,136 people
• By 2030: 5,896 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 5,446 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 5,044 · -17.8%
• By 2075: 4,535 · -26.1%
• By 2100: 3,973 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Hungarian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Burt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 26.9% · R 72.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+22.0 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.53%
• Current HPI: 316.2453
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+131.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-18 Listed $125,000 Fizber.com
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $130,000 GPRMLS
• 2025-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-21 Listed $150,000 GPRMLS
• 2025-04-16 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $89,900 GPRMLS
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $99,900 GPRMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $125,000 GPRMLS
• 2024-11-24 Relisted — GPRMLS
• 2024-10-18 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2024-10-15 Listed $129,000 GPRMLS
• 2024-10-03 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2024-07-20 Price Changed $130,000 GPRMLS
• 2024-06-16 Price Changed $135,000 GPRMLS
• 2024-06-01 Listed $139,000 GPRMLS
• 2014-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,557 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.