211 Elm St · Trenton, NJ 08611

$198,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1980 1,106 sqft lot Est $321k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Being sold as-is. Purchaser responsible for all permits, inspections, and certs. Bank owned. Needs renovations. Full unfinished basement and fenced in rear yard. Won't Last!!!

Key facts

• Chambersburg area
• Built 1980
• Listed 33 days

Tags

• SEMI-DETACHED VICTORIAN HOME
• CHAMBERSBURG AREA
• FINISHED AND WALK-UP ATTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $198k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,233/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 2147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $198k implies a 942% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,060 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.58%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,216
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Home Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-0%)	9mo	$205,000	$153	79
1521 S Clinton Ave	0.33mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,348 (+0%)	6mo	$208,000	$154	72
34 Andrew St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,340 (-0%)	9mo	$320,000	$239	71
1919--1921 Clinton	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,408 (+5%)	1mo	$250,000	$178	62
611 E Brown St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,388 (+3%)	4mo	$310,000	$223	58
27 Annabelle Ave	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,426 (+6%)	4mo	$365,000	$256	55
317 Hewitt Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,357 (+1%)	9mo	$400,000	$295	55
156 Fitzrandolph Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-11%)	4mo	$310,000	$258	54
156 Kent St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,470 (+9%)	0mo	$208,000	$141	51
957 Lalor St	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,512 (+12%)	9mo	$355,000	$235	44
121 Emanuel St	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,278 (-5%)	10mo	$345,000	$270	40
323 Hutchinson St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,521 (+13%)	9mo	$419,500	$276	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,819
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $40,500
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08611

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$294 /mo · $3,522/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,790

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1103 Division St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1296	$2,000	$1.54	21d	1	0.13mi
313 Home Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1112	$2,100	$1.89	13d	1	0.15mi
233 Virginia Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1302	$2,500	$1.92	12d	1	0.25mi
244 Jersey St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.5	1368	$2,300	$1.68	13d	1	0.31mi
705 Anderson St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	13d	1	0.34mi
203 Genesee St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1452	$1,700	$1.17	21d	1	0.41mi
1049 Genesee St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1270	$2,300	$1.81	21d	1	0.41mi
1132 Genesee St Unit 1132 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1198	$2,500	$2.09	21d	1	0.48mi
234 Howell St Trenton, NJ	3.0	3.0	1656	$3,600	$2.17	21d	1	0.52mi
1078 Lalor St Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1488	$1,895	$1.27	21d	1	0.55mi
1078 Lalor St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1488	$1,785	$1.20	21d	1	0.55mi
176 Division St Apt 106 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	975	$1,700	$1.74	21d	1	0.58mi
547 Centre St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,850	$1.75	21d	1	0.65mi
71 Clark St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	13d	4	0.72mi
635 Chambers St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	13d	1	0.87mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 204 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,750	$1.73	21d	1	0.92mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	21d	1	0.92mi
105 Walnut Ave Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	21d	1	1.16mi
700 Schiller Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1558	$2,500	$1.60	13d	1	1.18mi
973 S Olden Ave Unit 2ND FLOOR Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1664	$1,850	$1.11	21d	1	1.20mi
239 Ardmore Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,750	$1.65	21d	1	1.27mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	21d	1	1.27mi
417 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	992	$2,050	$2.07	21d	1	1.40mi
216 E State St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	811	$1,895	$2.34	13d	2	1.41mi
34 Southard St #2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1808	$2,150	$1.19	21d	1	1.44mi
428 Cleveland Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2024-10-19
   status Pending
2. 2024-09-15
   listed $198,000 Active
3. 2016-11-04
   historical 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Being sold as-is. Purchaser responsible for all permits, inspections, and certs. Bank owned. Needs renovations. Full unfinished basement and fenced in rear yard. Won't Last!!!

4. 2016-11-01
   soldstatus $19,000 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Being sold as-is. Purchaser responsible for all permits, inspections, and certs. Bank owned. Needs renovations. Full unfinished basement and fenced in rear yard. Won't Last!!!

5. 2016-11-01
   soldstatus $19,000 Sold 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Being sold as-is. Purchaser responsible for all permits, inspections, and certs. Bank owned. Needs renovations. Full unfinished basement and fenced in rear yard. Won't Last!!!

6. 2016-08-26
   status Under Contract 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Being sold as-is. Purchaser responsible for all permits, inspections, and certs. Bank owned. Needs renovations. Full unfinished basement and fenced in rear yard. Won't Last!!!

7. 2016-07-18
   listed $19,900 Active 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Being sold as-is. Purchaser responsible for all permits, inspections, and certs. Bank owned. Needs renovations. Full unfinished basement and fenced in rear yard. Won't Last!!!

8. 2016-07-15
   listed $19,900 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Being sold as-is. Purchaser responsible for all permits, inspections, and certs. Bank owned. Needs renovations. Full unfinished basement and fenced in rear yard. Won't Last!!!

9. 2004-12-22
   soldstatus $84,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,522 · $294/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,226 · $352/mo
• Expected delta: +$704/yr (+$59/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$3,522
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable income: $1,150
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$276
• After-tax cash flow: $3,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,995
• Household income: $56,788
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2147.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% Black 20% Two or more races 18% White 14% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Swiss 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.62%
• Current HPI: 276.5427
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.71%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+135.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-15 Listed $198,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-11-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-11-01 Sold (MLS) $19,000 TREND
• 2016-11-01 Sold (MLS) $19,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-08-26 Pending — TREND
• 2016-07-18 Listed $19,900 TREND
• 2016-07-15 Listed $19,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,522 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.