163 Pastar Fls · Geronimo, TX 78155

$184,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,483 sqft · SingleFamily · 111 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $125/sqft · at area comps Est $193k · at est. $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.7% in Geronimo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,471 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,349 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.96%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,999
• List price: $184,999
• Delta: -4.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
163 Pastar Fls	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,483 (0%)	1mo	$184,999	$125	99
147 Pastar Fls	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,483 (0%)	1mo	$185,999	$125	98
150 Pastar Fls	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,483 (0%)	1mo	$188,999	$127	97
166 Pastar Fls	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,483 (0%)	2mo	$192,999	$130	97
125 Pastar Fls	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,483 (0%)	2mo	$193,999	$131	96
130 Pastar Fls	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,483 (0%)	2mo	$190,999	$129	96
215 Pastar Fls	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-9%)	1mo	$186,999	$138	77
167 Pastar Fls	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	2mo	$203,999	$121	73
151 Pastar Fls	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	2mo	$209,999	$124	72
207 Pastar Fls	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	1mo	$230,999	$137	72
141 Pastar Fls	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	2mo	$211,999	$125	71
9060 Navarro Vista Vis	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+12%)	2mo	$240,000	$144	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-23,566
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-16,948
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,860 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,698

Max offer price $184,999

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $191	+0% $128	+5% $64	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-19	-5% $54	+0% $128	+5% $201	+10% $274
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $175	base $128	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Alligator Crk Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,750	$1.27	44d	1	0.07mi
964 Pastar Crk Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	2d	1	0.14mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	44d	1	0.22mi
5863 Coahulia Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	2d	1	0.22mi
9272 James Bowie Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	2d	1	0.33mi
9268 James Bowie Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,575	$0.97	3d	1	0.34mi
5812 San Geronimo Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	2d	1	0.38mi
9211 Saint Jerome Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	2d	1	0.52mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-13
   price $184,999 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-05-12
   price $195,999 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-05-09
   price $215,999 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-05-06
   price $216,999 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-04-30
   price $218,999 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-04-28
   price $219,999 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-04-25
   price $221,999 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

9. 2026-04-22
   price $224,999 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

10. 2026-03-20
    price $244,999 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

11. 2026-03-18
    price $243,999 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

12. 2026-03-12
    price $242,999 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

13. 2026-02-10
    price $241,999 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

14. 2026-02-04
    price $239,999 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

15. 2026-02-04
    price $237,999 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2026-01-27
    listed $235,999 New 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    The Hoffman- This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$349
• After-tax cash flow: $1,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Geronimo

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1471
• US rank: #25174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Geronimo, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $184,999 LERA
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $195,999 LERA
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $215,999 LERA
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $216,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $218,999 LERA
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $219,999 LERA
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $221,999 LERA
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $224,999 LERA
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $244,999 LERA
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $243,999 LERA
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $242,999 LERA
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $241,999 LERA
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $239,999 LERA
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $237,999 LERA
• 2026-01-27 Listed $235,999 LERA