1251 Birch Dr · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 63 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2018 Good condition $88/sqft · 32% below area Est $116k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.7

Listing remarks

- Lot rent includes community pool, water, sewer and trash - Quiet home end of the street away from traffic - Views of surrounding mountain ranges - Paved streets - Easy access to town - Rec center with game room and more -

Key facts

• Paved streets
• Community pool
• Built 2018

Tags

• PAVED STREETS
• REC CENTER WITH GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($970 rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.6% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Cerbat Elementary (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #963 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 700 students, 78% FRL); Kingman Middle School (math 10% / reading 13%, grade F, #180 of 218 statewide, top 83%, 737 students, 74% FRL); Kingman High School (math 4% / reading 6%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 905 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 22% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Kingman Unified School District (79598) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 819 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.96%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,900
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -31.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5178 N Edie Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0	980 (+9%)	4mo	$115,900	$118	67
1180 E Jagerson Ave	0.22mi	2/2.0	931 (+3%)	23mo	$106,000	$114	65
5029 N Huffman Rd	0.36mi	2/1.5	980 (+9%)	2mo	$154,900	$158	64
1200 E Potter Ave	0.50mi	2/2.0	938 (+4%)	8mo	$105,000	$112	63
4954 Scotty Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0	924 (+3%)	16mo	$116,000	$126	61
4851 N Sierra Rd	0.51mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	8mo	$147,000	$153	59
2110 E Packard Ave	0.71mi	2/1.5	937 (+4%)	1mo	$128,000	$137	57
1245 E Mcvicar Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+9%)	18mo	$60,000	$61	53
4762 N Kelli Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+3%)	6mo	$95,000	$103	52
2315 E Suffock Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (+14%)	6mo	$120,000	$117	32
2080 E Lass Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	775 (-14%)	9mo	$105,000	$135	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,282
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $7,151
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.4 mo (30%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $103,500 ($111/sqft)
• Median days on market: 121 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 86409

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 819
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $275	-5% $248	+0% $220	+5% $193	+10% $166
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $182	+0% $220	+5% $259	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $241	base $220	+0.5pp $200	+1.0pp $179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2840 E Leroy Ave Kingman, AZ	1.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	92d	1	1.45mi
2915 E Thompson Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	792	$1,150	$1.45	92d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned K- RFB Res: Factory Built
• HOA & community: Senior communityCommunity poolLand is leased

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide)Residential property
• Exterior features: Shingle roofNo fencingOutdoor community poolWater-smart landscapingPaved road accessPrivate maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingHeat pump coolingCentral airElectric cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast barWindow coverings
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $79,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $79,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $79,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $79,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $79,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $79,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   pricedays on market $79,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $89,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $89,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $89,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $89,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $89,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $89,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $89,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $89,000 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $89,000 Active 40 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $89,000 Active 39 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $89,000 Active 38 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $89,000 Active 37 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $89,000 Active 36 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $89,000 Active 35 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $89,000 Active 34 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $89,000 Active 33 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 32 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 31 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $89,000 Active 30 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 29 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $89,000 Active 28 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 27 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 26 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 25 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 24 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $89,000 Active 23 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $89,000 Active 22 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $89,000 Active 21 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $89,000 Active 18 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $89,000 Active 16 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $89,000 Active 15 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $89,000 Active 12 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $89,000 Active 11 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $89,000 Active 10 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $89,000 Active 9 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $89,000 Active 7 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $89,000 Active 6 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $89,000 Active 4 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $89,000 Active 3 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 2 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    remarks 223-char remark
50. 2026-06-07
    listed $89,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$931
• − Management: −$931
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $1,476
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$354
• After-tax cash flow: $2,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,500–$13,500 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance such as painting the exterior siding and cleaning the gutters. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, enhancing property value and reducing maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 10/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cerbat Elementary F AZ #963/1,109 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 Middle Kingman Middle School F AZ #180/218 Nat'l #13,186/14,009 High Kingman High School F AZ #364/381 Nat'l #16,861/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 209,184 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,365
• Household income: $50,852
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

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Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
• Current HPI: 280.1884
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned K- RFB Res: Factory Built
• HOA & community: Senior communityCommunity poolLand is leased

Exterior

• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide)Residential property
• Exterior features: Shingle roofNo fencingOutdoor community poolWater-smart landscapingPaved road accessPrivate maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingHeat pump coolingCentral airElectric cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast barWindow coverings
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $89,000 WARDEX