1251 Birch Dr · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$89,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 12 Days on market

Built 2018 Good condition Est $106k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

- Lot rent includes community pool, water, sewer and trash - Quiet home end of the street away from traffic - Views of surrounding mountain ranges - Paved streets - Easy access to town - Rec center with game room and more -

Key facts

• Paved streets
• Community pool
• Built 2018

Tags

• PAVED STREETS
• REC CENTER WITH GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned K- RFB Res: Factory Built
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community pool; Land is leased

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Residential property
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; No fencing; Outdoor community pool; Water-smart landscaping; Paved road access; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling; Central air; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $380 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.3% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 643 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.31%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $106,200
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5178 N Edie Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0	980 (+9%)	2mo	$115,900	$118	69
1180 E Jagerson Ave	0.22mi	2/2.0	931 (+3%)	21mo	$106,000	$114	67
5029 N Huffman Rd	0.36mi	2/1.5	980 (+9%)	1mo	$154,900	$158	66
1200 E Potter Ave	0.50mi	2/2.0	938 (+4%)	6mo	$105,000	$112	65
4954 Scotty Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0	924 (+3%)	14mo	$116,000	$126	62
4851 N Sierra Rd	0.51mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	6mo	$147,000	$153	60
1160 E Suffock Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0	924 (+3%)	23mo	$155,000	$168	58
1245 E Mcvicar Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+9%)	16mo	$60,000	$61	54
4762 N Kelli Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+3%)	5mo	$95,000	$103	53
2315 E Suffock Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (+14%)	4mo	$120,000	$117	34
2080 E Lass Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	775 (-14%)	8mo	$105,000	$135	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $6,523
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $24,123
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86409

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 643
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2840 E Leroy Ave Kingman, AZ	1.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	43d	1	1.45mi
2915 E Thompson Ave Kingman, AZ	2.0	2.0	792	$1,150	$1.45	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 223-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $89,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,210
• − Management: −$1,210
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $3,346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$803
• After-tax cash flow: $3,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance such as painting the exterior siding and cleaning the gutters. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, enhancing property value and reducing maintenance costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, enhancing property value and reducing maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 181,906 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,365
• Household income: $50,852
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 688.0

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.90%
• Current HPI: 280.1884
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $89,000 WARDEX