1650 S Arizona Ave #240 · Chandler, AZ 85286

$106,888

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,219 sqft · Manufactured · 61 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition $88/sqft · 5% below area Est $113k · 5% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in desirable Chandler area. Open Kitchen with gas stove & new granite on counters and breakfast bar. The master bath and 2nd bathroom both just received matching granite countertops to match the kitchen. ADA ramp comes with home. Community features a large grassy area, a swimming pool, hot tub, basketball court for the beautiful weather that has arrived! New roof installed Aug 2025. Commute with easy access to loop 202, 101, I10 & AZ87. Located near public transit, local shops, downtown Chandler which is filled with entertainment. Location at this price is hard to come by so take a tour now!!

Key facts

• New granite
• Hot tub
• Swimming pool

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE
• NEW GRANITE
• LARGE GRASSY AREA
• SWIMMING POOL
• HOT TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $107k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $977 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.3% in Chandler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#9 in AZ, #2,508 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living D-.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $739 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,474 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.18%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,672
• List price: $106,888
• Delta: -5.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1650 S Arizona Ave #352	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	10mo	$117,000	$98	85
1650 S Arizona Ave #126	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-8%)	8mo	$69,000	$62	80
1650 S Arizona Ave #96	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+2%)	22mo	$121,000	$97	74
1650 S Arizona Ave #23	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+7%)	19mo	$115,000	$88	68
1650 S Arizona Ave #228	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-13%)	13mo	$83,000	$79	67
1650 S Arizona Ave #336	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+7%)	13mo	$117,500	$90	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $38,581
• Equity at exit: $15,937

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $89,266
• Equity at exit: $9,242

Cash invested: $29,929 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85286

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$134 /mo · $1,603/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $935

Max offer price $106,888

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,051	-5% $1,014	+0% $977	+5% $940	+10% $903
Rent	-10% $806	-5% $891	+0% $977	+5% $1,063	+10% $1,149
Rate	-1.0pp $1,031	-0.5pp $1,004	base $977	+0.5pp $949	+1.0pp $921

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,722
• Closing costs: $3,207
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2150 S Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,169	$2.27	2d	17	0.51mi
575 W Pecos Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,009	$2.16	2d	18	0.56mi
1106 S Fresno Ct Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,195	$1.54	25d	1	0.69mi
1112 S Bogle Ct Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1363	$1,800	$1.32	22d	1	0.76mi
1112 S Bogle Ct Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1363	$1,858	$1.36	25d	1	0.76mi
800 W Willis Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$2,475	$2.39	2d	19	0.80mi
875 W Pecos Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,903	$2.09	2d	22	0.87mi
726 S Nebraska St #95 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,900	$1.60	44d	1	0.89mi
726 S Nebraska St #159 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,699	$1.43	22d	1	0.91mi
727 S Hartford St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,495	$1.41	11d	1	0.98mi
727 S Hartford St #182 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,495	$1.41	15d	1	0.98mi
727 S Hartford St #189 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,695	$1.60	44d	1	0.98mi
727 S Hartford St #189 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,645	$1.55	11d	1	0.98mi
902 S Ithica St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1441	$2,126	$1.48	25d	1	1.09mi
2777 S Arizona Ave Chandler, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,839	$1.77	2d	13	1.13mi
155 E Frye Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1213	$3,136	$2.59	1d	25	1.15mi
812 E Morelos St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,201	$1.71	44d	1	1.15mi
1750 S Senate St Chandler, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1239	$2,714	$2.19	2d	25	1.17mi
857 E Saragosa St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1102	$2,199	$2.00	44d	1	1.20mi
857 E Saragosa St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1102	$2,149	$1.95	15d	1	1.20mi
878 E Morelos St Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,200	$1.48	22d	1	1.22mi
901 S Alma School Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,480	$2.64	3d	20	1.22mi
2177 S McQueen Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1192	$2,618	$2.20	2d	13	1.23mi
1175 W Pecos Rd Chandler, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$2,169	$2.23	2d	15	1.24mi
1314 W Weatherby Way Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1307	$1,950	$1.49	44d	1	1.28mi
1315 W Musket Way Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,250	$1.55	44d	1	1.30mi
250 W Queen Creek Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1732	$2,250	$1.30	4d	3	1.32mi
721 S Williams Pl Chandler, AZ	4.0	2.0	1488	$2,295	$1.54	22d	1	1.32mi
1203 W Kesler Ln Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,175	$1.65	5d	1	1.36mi
280 S Elizabeth Way #27 Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.5	1136	$1,650	$1.45	25d	1	1.36mi
280 S Elizabeth Way #37 Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,850	$1.46	5d	1	1.36mi
1387 W Marlin Dr Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.5	1307	$2,245	$1.72	15d	1	1.39mi
250 S Elizabeth Way Unit B3 Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,595	$1.57	44d	1	1.41mi
250 S Elizabeth Way Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	862	$1,570	$1.82	44d	1	1.42mi
1441 E Germann Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,972	$1.68	19d	1	1.42mi
1450 E Germann Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1367	$2,359	$1.73	22d	1	1.44mi
1450 E Germann Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1367	$2,385	$1.74	4d	1	1.44mi
1450 E Germann Rd Chandler, AZ	2.0	2.0	1367	$2,330	$1.70	21d	1	1.44mi
333 E Commonwealth Ave Chandler, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,878	$2.15	1d	11	1.44mi
800 W Queen Creek Rd Chandler, AZ	3.0	2.0	1254	$2,099	$1.67	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $106,888 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $106,888 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $106,888 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $106,888 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $106,888 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $106,888 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $106,888 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $106,888 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $106,888 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $106,888 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $106,888 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $106,888 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $106,888 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $106,888 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-04-19
    price $110,000 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in desirable Chandler area. Open Kitchen with gas stove & new granite on counters and breakfast bar. The master bath and 2nd bathroom both just received matching granite countertops to match the kitchen. ADA ramp comes with home. Community features a large grassy area, a swimming pool, hot tub, basketball court for the beautiful weather that has arrived! New roof installed Aug 2025. Commute with easy access to loop 202, 101, I10 & AZ87. Located near public transit, local shops, downtown Chandler which is filled with entertainment. Location at this price is hard to come by so take a tour now!!

16. 2026-04-18
    listed $115,000 Active 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    Beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in desirable Chandler area. Open Kitchen with gas stove & new granite on counters and breakfast bar. The master bath and 2nd bathroom both just received matching granite countertops to match the kitchen. ADA ramp comes with home. Community features a large grassy area, a swimming pool, hot tub, basketball court for the beautiful weather that has arrived! New roof installed Aug 2025. Commute with easy access to loop 202, 101, I10 & AZ87. Located near public transit, local shops, downtown Chandler which is filled with entertainment. Location at this price is hard to come by so take a tour now!!

17. 2025-09-09
    price $115,000
18. 2025-09-02
    price $114,999
19. 2025-08-13
    status Active
20. 2025-08-13
    price $115,000
21. 2025-08-04
    status Pending
22. 2025-08-04
    historical
23. 2025-06-30
    price $110,500
24. 2025-06-26
    price $110,600
25. 2025-06-24
    price $110,700
26. 2025-06-19
    price $110,800
27. 2025-06-17
    price $110,900
28. 2025-06-09
    price $111,000
29. 2025-06-04
    price $111,300
30. 2025-06-03
    price $111,400
31. 2025-06-01
    price $111,500
32. 2025-05-30
    price $111,600
33. 2025-05-29
    price $111,700
34. 2025-05-27
    price $111,800
35. 2025-05-22
    price $111,900
36. 2025-05-20
    price $112,000
37. 2025-05-15
    price $113,500
38. 2025-05-13
    price $114,000
39. 2025-04-14
    price $115,000
40. 2025-03-20
    price $120,000
41. 2025-02-19
    price $123,888
42. 2025-02-14
    price $125,888
43. 2025-02-11
    price $128,888
44. 2025-02-06
    price $130,000
45. 2025-01-14
    status Active
46. 2024-12-23
    historical
47. 2024-10-17
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,987
• − Property taxes: −$1,603
• − Insurance: −$534
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − Depreciation: −$3,109
• Taxable income: $10,658
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,558
• After-tax cash flow: $9,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, including new granite countertops and a new roof. It's located in a desirable area with easy access to major highways and local amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home's overall appearance.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Add smart home features — Improves home's marketability and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves home's marketability and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Chandler

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2508

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute B Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chandler, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 299,016
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 50,621
• Household income: $121,758
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1285.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 19% Asian 16% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.85%
• Current HPI: 309.3228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.64%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $110,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $114,999 ARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $110,500 ARMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $110,600 ARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $110,700 ARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $110,800 ARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $110,900 ARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $111,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $111,300 ARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $111,400 ARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Price Changed $111,500 ARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $111,600 ARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $111,700 ARMLS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $111,800 ARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $111,900 ARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $112,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $113,500 ARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $114,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $115,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $123,888 ARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $125,888 ARMLS
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $128,888 ARMLS
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-12-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $120,000 ARMLS