18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 122 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured · 12 Days on market

41 ac lot Est $150k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Skyline Ranch Country Club is a premier gated 55/45+ community offering a rare combination of space, recreation, and connection. Residents enjoy unlimited FREE golf on the SCGA-Approved executive 18-hole course, resort-style amenities including pools, spa, clubhouse, gym, and dog park, plus an active social calendar that fosters a true sense of community. With larger lots, private yards, mature landscaping, scenic walking areas, and many homes overlooking the fairways, Skyline Ranch provides a relaxed country-club lifestyle in the foothills of Valley Center. Plentiful parking for 5, a large corner lot with a fire hydrant, and mature plants including fruiting tress, make this serene park-lik

Key facts

• Gated community
• Scenic walking areas
• Mature landscaping

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• EXECUTIVE 18-HOLE COURSE
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• PRIVATE YARDS
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• SCENIC WALKING AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park space location within community (space 122)
• Financial info: Land lease applies
• HOA & community: Senior community; Manager approval required; Pets allowed; Located in Skyline Ranch Country Club community with golf course access and community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (attached) and covered parking; Five parking spaces including carport/golf cart garage; Gated with controlled entrance; Private paved driveway with built-in storage; Driveway is concrete
• Security: Gated community with controlled entrance
• Utilities: Public sewer; Overhead utilities
• Home design: Single-story property; Mobile home remains on site; Estimated living area
• Construction: Two sheds on the property
• Exterior features: In-ground, fenced pool with solar heat; Community lap/exercise pool (permits present); Patio home with front and back yard; Landscaped grounds with garden; Paved areas and driveway; Rolling to gentle slope lot with rocks; Corner lot; Located on golf course with nearby park and greenbelt; Street lighting and curbs; Nearby hiking, biking, horse trails and lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range and electric oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Built-in barbecue; Water heater unit
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main floor; All other bedrooms upstairs
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Front door entry; One-level living; No interior steps; Multiple access exits; Doors swing inward; Utility room; Bonus room / recreation space; Library
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Individual laundry room; Washer hookup; Propane dryer hookup; Community laundry area available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 22.3% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.06%
• DSCR: 3.54
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,288
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+3%)	8mo	$267,500	$174	88
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,530 (+3%)	10mo	$115,000	$75	87
18218 S PARADISE MOUNTAIN RD SPC 109	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	12mo	$140,000	$97	84
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 145	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	14mo	$165,000	$115	79
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 105	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-3%)	12mo	$89,500	$62	78
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (+3%)	10mo	$149,000	$97	76
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+5%)	12mo	$100,000	$64	71
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #7	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,355 (-9%)	21mo	$92,000	$68	67
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 10	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,306 (-12%)	9mo	$255,000	$195	66
18218 Paradise Mtn Rd #59	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+13%)	3mo	$249,900	$149	64
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 11	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+5%)	21mo	$180,000	$115	63
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #144	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+13%)	12mo	$170,000	$101	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $89,229
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.04×
• Total profit: $219,861
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,328 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$699
• Net cashflow: $1,731

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,821	-5% $1,776	+0% $1,731	+5% $1,686	+10% $1,641
Rent	-10% $1,468	-5% $1,599	+0% $1,731	+5% $1,862	+10% $1,994
Rate	-1.0pp $1,796	-0.5pp $1,764	base $1,731	+0.5pp $1,697	+1.0pp $1,663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 622-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $130,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,195
• − Management: −$3,195
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $19,885
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,772
• After-tax cash flow: $15,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+31.3% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $130,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $145,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $143,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $145,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $145,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-27 Listed $159,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $165,000 CRMLS
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $170,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-09 Price Changed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed $180,000 CRMLS
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $185,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-08 Listed $190,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-05-29 Price Changed $190,000 CRMLS
• 2024-04-18 Price Changed $194,000 CRMLS
• 2024-02-23 Price Changed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2024-01-26 Listed $215,000 CRMLS
• 2023-12-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-11-17 Price Changed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-22 Listed $205,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-09-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-08-25 Listed $203,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-26 Price Changed $189,000 CRMLS
• 2023-06-26 Listed $194,000 CRMLS
• 2019-11-08 Sold (MLS) $92,000 SDMLS
• 2019-10-19 Pending — SDMLS
• 2019-08-12 Listed $92,000 SDMLS
• 2014-12-12 Sold (MLS) $89,000 SDMLS
• 2014-11-14 Pending — SDMLS
• 2014-10-11 Price Changed $89,000 SDMLS
• 2014-09-21 Listed $99,000 SDMLS