915 Bates St · St. Louis, MO 63111

$138,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1892 3,698 sqft lot $85/sqft · 46% below area Est $256k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A rare blend of charm, space, and smart improvements—this Carondelet home is built to last and equipped for the times. Expecting this to be their forever home, the current owners made significant improvements: a NEW green-energy efficient heat pump for heating and cooling and no gas bill! Installed sewer lateral liner, new privacy fence, new electric panel, and appliances (fridge, stove, and dishwasher ). Owners also tuckpointed the front of the house, did significant water mitigation to basement, and improved the tree-lined backyard with a step-stone walk. Freshly painted throughout, this 3-bedroom home is full of warmth and personality—featuring hardwood floors, tall ceiling

Key facts

• Step-stone walk
• Privacy fence
• Tree-lined backyard

Tags

• SEWER LATERAL LINER
• PRIVACY FENCE
• ELECTRIC PANEL
• TREE-LINED BACKYARD
• STEP-STONE WALK
• ORIGINAL STAIRCASE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two and a half levels; Entry level information not provided
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Privacy fencing; City lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on upper level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main/upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Decorative fireplace (one)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woerner Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 362 students, 99% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 460 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,483 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.39%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,073
• List price: $138,000
• Delta: -46.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
919 Bates St	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,632 (0%)	2mo	$109,999	$67	96
5412 Idaho Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,650 (+1%)	2mo	$179,900	$109	89
925 Dover Pl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+2%)	4mo	$265,000	$160	83
6111 Idaho Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-2%)	4mo	$299,900	$187	74
6321 Alaska Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,613 (-1%)	4mo	$235,000	$146	69
3910 Walsh St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,613 (-1%)	4mo	$235,000	$146	59
6156 Louisiana Ave	0.39mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,455 (-11%)	1mo	$200,000	$137	56
4636 S Compton Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-8%)	2mo	$180,000	$120	51
5619 Arendes Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,822 (+12%)	3mo	$205,000	$113	50
3865 Bowen St	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,503 (-8%)	1mo	$400,000	$266	43
4648 S Compton Ave	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,502 (-8%)	3mo	$275,000	$183	42
6446 Virginia Ave	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,408 (-14%)	2mo	$160,000	$114	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-13,051
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,515
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63111

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,016/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $180	+0% $141	+5% $102	+10% $63
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $91	+0% $141	+5% $192	+10% $242
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $176	base $141	+0.5pp $106	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
736 Dover Pl Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	0.19mi
712 Dover Pl Unit 1FL St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	45d	1	0.23mi
712 Dover Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$900	$0.82	45d	1	0.23mi
711 Wilmington Ave Unit NA St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1051	$1,300	$1.24	45d	1	0.26mi
3641 Wilmington Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1175	$1,050	$0.89	45d	1	0.31mi
5028 Louisiana Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	45d	1	0.33mi
3668a Wilmington Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1212	$1,295	$1.07	16d	1	0.37mi
3668 Wilmington Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1214	$1,350	$1.11	45d	1	0.37mi
3324 Liberty St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$950	$0.86	17d	1	0.47mi
4716 Louisiana Ave Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1200	$995	$0.83	45d	1	0.48mi
3243 Delor St Unit 3243 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	23d	1	0.50mi
6436 Idaho Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1050	$995	$0.95	45d	1	0.58mi
4657 Idaho Ave Unit 4659 St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1668	$1,295	$0.78	25d	1	0.59mi
4637 Louisiana Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,175	$1.06	13d	1	0.63mi
3635 Marceline Ter Unit 2ND St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,275	$1.02	45d	1	0.63mi
4000 Schiller Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.5	1448	$1,600	$1.10	0d	1	0.77mi
6730 Vermont Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,600	$1.04	16d	1	0.79mi
6800 Virginia Ave Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	19d	1	0.81mi
6915 Alabama Ave Unit 1st Floor St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	45d	1	0.85mi
4075 Bowen St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	45d	1	0.91mi
4450 Pennsylvania Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	0d	1	0.97mi
4217 S Grand Blvd Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,400	$1.12	5d	1	1.00mi
4222 S 38th St Unit 4222 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,400	$0.76	21d	1	1.06mi
4222 S 38th St St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,400	$0.76	0d	1	1.06mi
7024 Pennsylvania Ave Unit F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1081	$930	$0.86	17d	1	1.07mi
3637 Meramec St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1632	$1,925	$1.18	18d	1	1.07mi
4177 Schiller Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	25d	1	1.08mi
4250 Michigan Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	2184	$1,200	$0.55	45d	1	1.08mi
3857 Boulevard Heights Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1697	$2,250	$1.33	3d	1	1.13mi
4145 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,520	$0.92	45d	1	1.16mi
7417 Vermont Ave St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	0d	8	1.17mi
7417 Vermont Ave Unit 103 St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,500	$1.40	16d	1	1.17mi
4135 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	2104	$1,600	$0.76	45d	1	1.18mi
4114 Alma Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1269	$2,065	$1.63	0d	1	1.19mi
4114 Alma Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1269	$2,065	$1.63	3d	1	1.19mi
4053 Giles Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1082	$995	$0.92	12d	1	1.19mi
4312 Oregon Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,000	$0.98	0d	1	1.20mi
4127 Minnesota Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.25mi
4127 Minnesota Ave Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.25mi
5970 Wanda Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1282	$1,995	$1.56	19d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $138,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $138,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $142,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $142,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $142,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $142,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $142,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $142,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $142,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $145,000 1316-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $147,500 Active 1316-char remark
18. 2026-04-04
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-31
    listed $147,500 Active
20. 2026-03-01
    status Pending
21. 2026-02-24
    price $147,500
22. 2026-02-12
    listed $150,000 Active
23. 2023-09-12
    soldstatus $132,250
24. 2023-09-08
    status Pending
25. 2023-09-07
    soldstatus Closed
26. 2023-08-10
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2023-08-02
    listed $125,000 Active
28. 2013-07-16
    soldstatus $64,000
29. 2013-07-12
    soldstatus
30. 2013-01-14
    listed $67,000
31. 2012-11-06
    soldstatus
32. 2012-10-31
    soldstatus
33. 2012-07-28
    listed $27,900
34. 2003-09-10
    soldstatus
35. 2003-09-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,016 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,339 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$323/yr (+$27/mo · 31.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$1,016
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable loss: −$600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$144
• After-tax cash flow: $1,840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,851
• Household income: $47,039
• Rent vs Own: 61.6% rent · 38.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 41% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.80%
• Current HPI: 169.4644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+394.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $138,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $142,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $145,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $147,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $147,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-01 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $147,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $132,250 Public Records
• 2023-09-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-07 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-10 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-02 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-12 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-14 Listed $67,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-10-31 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-28 Listed $27,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,016 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.