10307 E Jasmine Ln · Deer Park, WA 99003

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2007 ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SMOKIN DEAL in Horse Whisper Estates on 2007 manufactured home with 1600+ sf with awesome oversized 2 car shop, 3 bd 2 ba, lg master suite with tub & shower. Wonderful country setting. Come check it out!

Key facts

• Gated community
• End of road privacy
• 10 acre lot

Tags

• 10 ACRE LOT
• GATED COMMUNITY
• END OF ROAD PRIVACY
• GREAT WELLS
• POWER AT PROPERTY ENTRANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($183/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.4% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#531 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Riverside School District (rural): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #144 of 291 in WA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 3,608 units permitted in Spokane County in 2024 (1,792 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spokane County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,400 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $411,480
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34817 N Elk-chattaroy Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+14%)	17mo	$470,000	$254	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-24,909
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,244
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99003

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,474 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,922/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $60	+0% $15	+5% $-30	+10% $-75
Rent	-10% $-101	-5% $-43	+0% $15	+5% $73	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $56	base $15	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $160,000 Active 155-char remark
18. 2016-02-05
    soldstatus $190,000
19. 2008-09-03
    soldstatus $189,900 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    SMOKIN DEAL in Horse Whisper Estates on 2007 manufactured home with 1600+ sf with awesome oversized 2 car shop, 3 bd 2 ba, lg master suite with tub & shower. Wonderful country setting. Come check it out!

20. 2008-07-11
    listed $189,900 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    SMOKIN DEAL in Horse Whisper Estates on 2007 manufactured home with 1600+ sf with awesome oversized 2 car shop, 3 bd 2 ba, lg master suite with tub & shower. Wonderful country setting. Come check it out!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,922 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,922 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,688
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,922
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,415
• − Management: −$1,415
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$596
• After-tax cash flow: $778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverside School District
• NCES district ID: 5307440
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,674
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #5773
• State rank: #144 of 291 in WA

Livability — Deer Park

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #531
• US rank: #22045

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,177
• Population (ZIP): 4,634

Population outlook (Spokane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 531,314 people
• By 2030: 549,278 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 577,822 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 598,188 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 630,744 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 622,360 · +17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spokane

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.0% · R 51.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+8.3 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.60%
• Current HPI: 403.0044
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $160,000 FSBO.com
• 2016-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2008-09-03 Sold (MLS) $189,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-11 Listed $189,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,922 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.