437 Home Ave · Trenton, NJ 08611

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Townhouse public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1927 1,411 sqft lot Est $198k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This lovely three bedroom end of row in nice area is waiting for you. Huge living room with new carpet, crown moldings, woodwork and staircase. Wonderful picture window looks out over rocking chair front porch. Large modern kitchen leads to sunporch. Three good sized bedrooms with lots of closets. There's also a newly finished basement and the whole home has been freshly painted inside.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Hardwood flooring
• Huge living room

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• HUGE LIVING ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• CERAMIC TILE FLOOR
• FULLY FENCED IN YARD
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not in a federal flood zone; Pets allowed with no restrictions
• Financial info: Fee simple ownership
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric available; Natural gas available; Cable TV available; Phone available
• Home design: Semi-detached home; Shingle roof; Built date per assessor (year not specified); Average condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Other foundation type
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 14.10 x 100.00; No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not listed)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Ceramic tile flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Window air conditioning units; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Bay/Bow windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,173/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 2147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $190k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.37%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
632 Lalor St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,120 (0%)	2mo	$215,000	$192	92
35 Jersey St	0.29mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,131 (+1%)	0mo	$210,000	$186	80
345 Genesee St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-4%)	1mo	$110,000	$102	74
1210 Chestnut Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,047 (-6%)	1mo	$170,000	$162	70
859 Centre St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-2%)	2mo	$261,000	$237	69
108 Fitz Randolph	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,218 (+9%)	3mo	$215,000	$177	63
1447 S Clinton Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+7%)	5mo	$201,000	$168	62
57 New Cedar Ln	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,120 (0%)	5mo	$141,000	$126	61
203 3rd St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+11%)	1mo	$195,000	$156	57
327 Woodland St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,007 (-10%)	3mo	$182,000	$181	55
224 Gibbs Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	976 (-13%)	3mo	$193,250	$198	49
1072 Lamberton St	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,275 (+14%)	5mo	$202,000	$158	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-497
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $49,887
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08611

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,721/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,648

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
244 Jersey St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.5	1368	$2,300	$1.68	13d	1	0.13mi
313 Home Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1112	$2,100	$1.89	13d	1	0.14mi
233 Virginia Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1302	$2,500	$1.92	12d	1	0.23mi
225 Home Ave Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,750	$2.19	21d	1	0.24mi
1103 Division St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1296	$2,000	$1.54	21d	1	0.36mi
837 Genesee St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,700	$2.00	21d	1	0.43mi
1049 Genesee St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1270	$2,300	$1.81	21d	1	0.53mi
203 Genesee St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1452	$1,700	$1.17	21d	1	0.53mi
705 Anderson St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	13d	1	0.57mi
547 Centre St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,850	$1.75	21d	1	0.58mi
1132 Genesee St Unit 1132 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1198	$2,500	$2.09	21d	1	0.59mi
1078 Lalor St Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1488	$1,895	$1.27	21d	1	0.61mi
1078 Lalor St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1488	$1,785	$1.20	21d	1	0.61mi
176 Division St Apt 106 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	975	$1,700	$1.74	21d	1	0.80mi
71 Clark St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	13d	4	0.85mi
635 Chambers St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	13d	1	1.09mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 204 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,750	$1.73	21d	1	1.13mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	21d	1	1.16mi
105 Walnut Ave Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	21d	1	1.36mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $189,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 447-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $199,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,721 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,725 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,004/yr (+$84/mo · 36.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,721
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $2,075
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $4,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,995
• Household income: $56,788
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2147.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% Black 20% Two or more races 18% White 14% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Swiss 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.62%
• Current HPI: 276.5427
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.71%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+228.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 2005-08-23 Sold (MLS) $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-06-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-06-21 Listed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $60,800 Public Records
• 2001-11-27 Sold (MLS) $60,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-10-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-09-11 Listed $60,800 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,721 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.