559 3rd Ave · Danville, VA 24540

$43,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,027 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1900 Est $58k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This lovely home is already framed out; all it needs is your personal touch. Message me for pictures. [email protected]

Key facts

• Built 1900
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $43k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $707 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.0% vs local median 5.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,710 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.50%
• DSCR: 4.14
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $57,512
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
502 Locust Ln	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	978 (-5%)	8mo	$55,000	$56	77
144 Hamlin Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,026 (-0%)	2mo	$145,000	$141	70
188 Hamlin Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,048 (+2%)	8mo	$127,000	$121	65
1467 Myrtle Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,098 (+7%)	3mo	$59,900	$55	65
1501 Claiborne St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+7%)	2mo	$52,000	$47	63
209 Rocklawn Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,122 (+9%)	6mo	$50,050	$45	61
262 Fagan St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	998 (-3%)	0mo	$28,000	$28	61
1436 Claiborne St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,114 (+8%)	7mo	$84,500	$76	54
223 Rocklawn Ave	0.36mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (+14%)	2mo	$148,900	$127	52
130 Princess Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	960 (-6%)	6mo	$45,000	$47	50
1441 Myrtle Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	874 (-15%)	3mo	$43,500	$50	46
2211 Spencer St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	875 (-15%)	8mo	$75,000	$86	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $38,076
• Equity at exit: $6,411

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.57×
• Total profit: $91,135
• Equity at exit: $3,718

Cash invested: $12,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24540

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $131/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $322

Max offer price $43,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,750
• Closing costs: $1,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
128 Lowell St Danville, VA	3.0	1.0	918	$1,050	$1.14	43d	1	0.14mi
134 Hartford St Danville, VA	4.0	1.0	1325	$1,350	$1.02	43d	1	0.29mi
117 Ida St Danville, VA	3.0	1.0	925	$1,163	$1.26	43d	1	0.80mi
1353 N Main St Apt 6 Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$650	$0.76	43d	1	0.83mi
442 Main St Unit 207 Danville, VA	2.0	2.0	850	$1,500	$1.76	43d	1	1.39mi
712 Edwin Ct Danville, VA	2.0	1.0	969	$700	$0.72	43d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $43,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $43,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $43,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $43,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $43,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $43,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $43,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $43,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $43,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $43,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $43,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $43,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $43,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $43,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $43,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $43,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $43,000 Active 139-char remark
18. 2025-10-15
    soldstatus $30,000
19. 2025-01-22
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $131 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $353 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$221/yr (+$18/mo · 168.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,409
• − Property taxes: −$131
• − Insurance: −$215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,169
• − Management: −$1,169
• − Depreciation: −$1,251
• Taxable income: $8,265
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,984
• After-tax cash flow: $6,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danville City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101110
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,952
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6298
• State rank: #128 of 131 in VA

Livability — Danville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #2952

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danville, VA
• County: Danville City · 59,055 people
• City population: 59,055
• Metro: Danville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 31,013
• Household income: $47,924
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1170.0

Population outlook (Danville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,989 people
• By 2030: 40,432 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 39,255 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 38,035 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 35,612 · -13.1%
• By 2100: 30,365 · -25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 42% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Danville

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.1) · D 60.1% · R 39.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.1 2020: D+22.1 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+22.1 2008: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.79%
• Current HPI: 235.1746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Danville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+95.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $43,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2025-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $131 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.