3804 N Oak Dr Unit X21 · Tampa, FL 33611

$100,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 578 sqft · Condo public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1981 $485/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Renovation Special!! This first-floor 1-bedroom, 1-bath unit is located in the sought-after Fair Oaks community and boasts the largest one-bedroom floor plan in the complex. It offers an open layout, spacious bedroom with large walk-in closet, and a screened porch with an attached storage room and washer/dryer hookup. The well-kept community features a gated pool, rear security gate, ample guest parking, a fishing pond with pier, an RV lot for extra gear (available for rent), and a roomy clubhouse, plus internet and cable are included in the condo fee! Roof replaced in 2025, AC replaced in 2017. An unbeatable chance to own in this popular neighborhood!

Key facts

• $485 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Living area listed as 578 square feet; Lot size about 0.02 acres; Road surface: asphalt
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $485.92; Total annual fees: $5,831.04; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Harbeck Hospitality; Monthly HOA fee of $485.92 (includes cable TV, pool, escrow reserves, internet, structure & grounds maintenance, management, sewer, trash, water); Association approval required; Community features: clubhouse, pool, community mailbox; buyer approval required; Pets allowed with restrictions (breed, number, size) — cats and dogs OK

Exterior

• Parking: Directions available for access to complex
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; One level unit; Faces west; Stories: 2
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Building area approximately 646 square feet
• Exterior features: Pond access; Fishing pier; Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (1st floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments; Sliding doors; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anderson Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 304 students, 46% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 563 students, 65% FRL); Robinson High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,354 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 423 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $100k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.59%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-14,329
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-19,096
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33611

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$485
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,576

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $112	+0% $84	+5% $55	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $-49	-5% $17	+0% $84	+5% $150	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $109	base $84	+0.5pp $58	+1.0pp $31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3814 W Euclid Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,500	$2.31	26d	2	0.49mi
5055 S Dale Mabry Hwy Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,600	$2.01	4d	28	0.63mi
5000 S Himes Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$1,670	$1.93	0d	7	0.68mi
4002 S Manhattan Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,549	$2.38	1d	3	0.76mi
5145 S Dale Mabry Hwy Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$2,613	$2.47	0d	20	0.79mi
5110 S Manhattan Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,895	$1.90	1d	23	1.03mi
4015 Bayshore Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	747	$1,895	$2.54	4d	3	1.07mi
4800 S West Shore Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,555	$1.94	0d	18	1.22mi
3325 Bayshore Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	2.0	832	$1,800	$2.16	26d	2	1.24mi
3417 W San Juan St Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,445	$2.22	26d	3	1.28mi
2575 S Himes Ave Unit A Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,800	$2.88	12d	1	1.35mi
3809 W Iowa Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,125	$1.73	6d	3	1.36mi
2911 W Tyson Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	650	$1,723	$2.65	23d	1	1.37mi
4003 S West Shore Blvd Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	690	$1,688	$2.44	1d	304	1.39mi
4922 W Gandy Blvd #102 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	595	$1,450	$2.44	13d	1	1.42mi
4851 W Gandy Blvd Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,200	$1.32	0d	2	1.43mi
5000 Culbreath Key Way Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,650	$1.95	4d	3	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $485 · $5,820/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablepoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $100,000 Active
3. 1984-05-01
   soldstatus $33,900
4. 1983-02-01
   soldstatus $36,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,325 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,325 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − HOA: −$5,820
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$204
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$49
• After-tax cash flow: $1,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,810
• Household income: $90,910
• Rent vs Own: 46.3% rent · 53.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1761.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.23%
• Current HPI: 374.7996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+171.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,900 Public Records
• 1983-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+60.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,325 · +1190.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.