1340 Alrose Ln Spc 68 · Redding, CA 96002

$44,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $44k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean and move in ready 2/1 close to shopping and transportation. Well maintained inside and out. Fridge, washer/dryer to stay. Desireable 55+park with affordable space rent. Close to clubhouse and amenities.

Key facts

• Porch
• Gazebo
• Storage building

Tags

• CARPORT
• PORCH
• GAZEBO
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Churn Creek Mobile Home Park

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Mobile home
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Aluminum skirting; Built as a United States model
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Asphalt road access; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Flooring: Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Has heating
• Interior features: Dryer; Range; Refrigerator; Washer; Oven
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $865 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.9% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,680 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.24%
• DSCR: 4.75
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $44,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1340 Alrose Ln Spc 68	0.00mi	2/1.0	800 (0%)	0mo	$44,000	$55	100
1340 Alrose Ln #32	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	21mo	$9,500	$13	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $46,328
• Equity at exit: $6,561

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.50×
• Total profit: $104,746
• Equity at exit: $3,804

Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96002

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$55 /mo · $660/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $865

Break-even live

Break-even rent $385

Max offer price $44,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $895	-5% $880	+0% $865	+5% $850	+10% $834
Rent	-10% $748	-5% $806	+0% $865	+5% $923	+10% $982
Rate	-1.0pp $887	-0.5pp $876	base $865	+0.5pp $853	+1.0pp $842

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,000
• Closing costs: $1,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3980 Churn Creek Rd Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	755	$1,295	$1.72	14d	1	0.79mi
1013 Echo Rd Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,375	$1.79	14d	1	1.09mi
2326 Corona St Redding, CA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,695	$1.78	22d	1	1.23mi
3512 Adams Ln Unit 8 Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,375	$1.53	14d	1	1.25mi
3629 Bechelli Ln Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	769	$1,650	$2.15	14d	1	1.29mi
712 Kerryjen Ct Unit B Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	22d	1	1.30mi
1063 Del Sol Pl Unit D Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	941	$1,350	$1.43	14d	1	1.38mi
1006 2nd St Unit A Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,175	$1.68	14d	1	1.44mi
1601 Bramble Pl Unit 4 Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $44,000 Active
3. 2025-10-17
   listed $49,000 Active
4. 2022-07-29
   soldstatus $43,000 Closed 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Clean and move in ready 2/1 close to shopping and transportation. Well maintained inside and out. Fridge, washer/dryer to stay. Desireable 55+park with affordable space rent. Close to clubhouse and amenities.

5. 2022-06-28
   status Pending 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Clean and move in ready 2/1 close to shopping and transportation. Well maintained inside and out. Fridge, washer/dryer to stay. Desireable 55+park with affordable space rent. Close to clubhouse and amenities.

6. 2022-05-05
   listed $44,900 Active 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Clean and move in ready 2/1 close to shopping and transportation. Well maintained inside and out. Fridge, washer/dryer to stay. Desireable 55+park with affordable space rent. Close to clubhouse and amenities.

7. 2021-08-09
   soldstatus $40,000
8. 2021-06-24
   listed $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,465
• − Property taxes: −$660
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,421
• − Management: −$1,421
• − Depreciation: −$1,280
• Taxable income: $10,291
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,470
• After-tax cash flow: $7,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,783
• Household income: $73,222
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1026.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.70%
• Current HPI: 319.713
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+10.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-03-31 Listed $44,000 SAOR
• 2025-10-17 Listed $49,000 SAOR
• 2022-07-29 Sold (MLS) $43,000 SAOR
• 2022-06-28 Pending — SAOR
• 2022-05-05 Listed $44,900 SAOR
• 2021-08-09 Sold (MLS) $40,000 SAOR
• 2021-06-24 Listed $40,000 SAOR