102 Creek Dr · Effort, PA 18058

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,604 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1965 0.32 ac lot $58/sqft · 71% below area $44/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your serene retreat! Nestled in one of the most quiet neighborhoods, this very large charming 2 bedroom plus a loft, 1 bathroom hidden gem is perfect for those seeking a permanent residence or a weekend getaway. This home does need some upgrades. Cesspool was recently inspected as a 4 bedroom and is considered unsatisfactory condition due to the cesspool can not handle flows from a 4 bedroom home. Private pond and stream out back. Large driveway. The community offers more to love, featuring a large lake complete with a sandy beach and pavilion. Call and schedule your private showing!

Key facts

• Sandy beach
• Large lake
• Private pond

Tags

• PRIVATE POND
• LARGE LAKE
• SANDY BEACH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $525

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electric with generator; Well water; Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Above-grade finished living area reported
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Partially wooded lot; Pond on lot; Located on a cul-de-sac; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven / electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Den; Office
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Baseboard, Electric, Oil; Cooling: Ceiling fan(s), Wall unit(s)
• Interior features: Dining area and separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Game room; Home office; Loft; Mud room; Utility room; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup and dryer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and Dryer included; Laundry on lower level; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.7% in Effort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#292 in PA, #2,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pleasant Valley SD (rural): math 31% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #297 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $150k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.01%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $511,855
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -60.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
144 Cameilla	0.40mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,316 (-11%)	3mo	$540,000	$233	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $52,389
• Equity at exit: $96,609

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $148,643
• Equity at exit: $177,283

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18058

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,753 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,642/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,620

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $148	+0% $105	+5% $63	+10% $20
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $36	+0% $105	+5% $174	+10% $244
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $143	base $105	+0.5pp $66	+1.0pp $27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
3. 2026-05-02
   historical
4. 2026-04-24
   listed $199,900 Active
5. 2026-04-24
   listed $199,900 Active
6. 2026-04-24
   historical
7. 2026-04-22
   price $199,900
8. 2026-04-09
   price $209,000
9. 2026-03-30
   price $219,900
10. 2026-03-18
    price $235,000
11. 2026-03-11
    listed $250,000 Active
12. 1998-03-31
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,642 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,642 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$4,642
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,683
• − Management: −$1,683
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,010
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$242
• After-tax cash flow: $1,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasant Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4219290
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $61,593
• Composite: 37.18/100
• National rank: #4476
• State rank: #297 of 539 in PA

Livability — Effort

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #2576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,884

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 188.6013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+233.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $149,900 GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-03 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-05-02 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $199,900 GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $199,900 PMAR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $199,900 GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $209,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $219,900 GLVRMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $235,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $250,000 GLVRMLS
• 1998-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,642 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.