617 Water Oak Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$239,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1985 0.50 ac lot Est $232k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Available in the Heart of Madison, this 3/2 has been well maintained and is ready for new owners. This home has a large fenced backyard with a covered patio, a two-car garage, and a great floor plan. There is laminate floors in the living areas, separate laundry room off the kitchen, and recently replaced HVAC system. It is close to Hwy 51 and I-55 and is also in a great neighborhood. Madison schools are some of the best in the State! Call your Realtor today to schedule a showing!

Key facts

• Custom faucet
• Granite countertops
• Designer backsplash

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE SINGLE-BOWL SINK
• CUSTOM FAUCET
• DESIGNER BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $240k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Station Elementary School (math 76% / reading 75%, grade A, #4 of 375 statewide, top 1%, 1,035 students, 100% FRL); Madison Central High School (math 5% / reading 63%, grade F, #78 of 197 statewide, top 39%, 1,246 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.22%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,868
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Willow Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+1%)	2mo	$234,900	$170	81
429 S Pin Oak Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,454 (+6%)	3mo	$247,500	$170	78
636 Live Oak Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+7%)	3mo	$249,000	$169	73
124 Azalea Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+6%)	10mo	$229,500	$158	63
368 Post Oak Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+7%)	7mo	$250,000	$170	63
546 Hunters Creek Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-10%)	10mo	$199,900	$162	59
143 Glenwood Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+2%)	9mo	$249,000	$178	58
112 Armonde Ct	0.33mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,563 (+14%)	1mo	$259,000	$166	54
122 Eastwood Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+7%)	8mo	$245,000	$166	49
429 Brentwood Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+12%)	10mo	$255,000	$166	46
409 Hawthorne Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+13%)	4mo	$274,999	$177	43
1022 N Azalea Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+12%)	5mo	$245,000	$159	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,078
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $31,813
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $851/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,809

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $652	-5% $584	+0% $516	+5% $448	+10% $380
Rent	-10% $321	-5% $419	+0% $516	+5% $613	+10% $710
Rate	-1.0pp $637	-0.5pp $577	base $516	+0.5pp $454	+1.0pp $391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $239,900 Active
3. 2021-11-10
   soldstatus
4. 2021-10-20
   historical 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   Available in the Heart of Madison, this 3/2 has been well maintained and is ready for new owners. This home has a large fenced backyard with a covered patio, a two-car garage, and a great floor plan. There is laminate floors in the living areas, separate laundry room off the kitchen, and recently replaced HVAC system. It is close to Hwy 51 and I-55 and is also in a great neighborhood. Madison schools are some of the best in the State! Call your Realtor today to schedule a showing!

5. 2021-10-01
   soldstatus Closed 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   Available in the Heart of Madison, this 3/2 has been well maintained and is ready for new owners. This home has a large fenced backyard with a covered patio, a two-car garage, and a great floor plan. There is laminate floors in the living areas, separate laundry room off the kitchen, and recently replaced HVAC system. It is close to Hwy 51 and I-55 and is also in a great neighborhood. Madison schools are some of the best in the State! Call your Realtor today to schedule a showing!

6. 2021-08-04
   listed $187,000 485-char remark

   Show marketing remark (485 chars)

   Available in the Heart of Madison, this 3/2 has been well maintained and is ready for new owners. This home has a large fenced backyard with a covered patio, a two-car garage, and a great floor plan. There is laminate floors in the living areas, separate laundry room off the kitchen, and recently replaced HVAC system. It is close to Hwy 51 and I-55 and is also in a great neighborhood. Madison schools are some of the best in the State! Call your Realtor today to schedule a showing!

7. 2019-06-10
   soldstatus
8. 2009-07-20
   soldstatus
9. 2009-07-15
   soldstatus 223-char remark

   Show marketing remark (223 chars)

   great family home. perfect for first time buyers or retirees. updated colors, family room w/built-ins and fireplace. separate laundry, 2 car garage, large fenced backyard. heart of Madison, great schools, close to shopping.

10. 2009-06-14
    listed $129,900 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    great family home. perfect for first time buyers or retirees. updated colors, family room w/built-ins and fireplace. separate laundry, 2 car garage, large fenced backyard. heart of Madison, great schools, close to shopping.

11. 2000-03-08
    soldstatus
12. 1995-03-31
    soldstatus
13. 1994-05-05
    soldstatus
14. 1993-08-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,895 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,045/yr (+$87/mo · 122.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$851
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,363
• − Management: −$2,363
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable income: $2,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$564
• After-tax cash flow: $5,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+84.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-24 Listed $239,900 MLSU
• 2021-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-01 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-08-04 Listed $187,000 MLSU
• 2019-06-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-07-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2009-06-14 Listed $129,900 MLSU
• 2000-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $851 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.