3791 Moon Hill Rd · Marion, TX 78132

$237,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,483 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $160/sqft · 6% below area Est $253k · 6% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Hoffman - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $112.50 semi-annually; Association transfer fee $450

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water system (GBRA); Sewer system (SHWSC); Natural gas supply: Unigas; Electricity supply: NBU; Garbage service: Frontier
• Home design: New construction by Lennar
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Brick, siding, and cement fiber exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen 14 x 10; Stove/Range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bath; Bedroom 2: 10 x 10; Bedroom 3: 10 x 10; Bedroom 4: 11 x 10; Master bedroom: 11 x 13
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only and single vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and natural gas heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Breakfast bar; Utility room inside; 1 living area; All bedrooms on lower level; Walk-in closets; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1136 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $192,032 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.64%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,133
• List price: $237,999
• Delta: -5.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2760 Pioneer Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-1%)	1mo	$250,000	$170	93
701 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+6%)	1mo	$240,999	$153	89
721 Thea Mdws	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+6%)	2mo	$223,999	$142	66
705 Thea Mdws	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+8%)	1mo	$219,999	$137	65
746 Thea Mdws	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+8%)	1mo	$219,999	$137	64
713 Thea Mdws	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-6%)	1mo	$230,999	$165	63
175 Lost Maples Way	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (-5%)	2mo	$289,900	$206	59
2219 Allison Crk	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+12%)	1mo	$216,999	$130	57
2211 Allison Crk	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+12%)	3mo	$225,999	$136	55
179 Lost Maples Way	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,594 (+8%)	2mo	$314,000	$197	54
135 Petey Pl	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (+12%)	2mo	$253,999	$153	52
121 Lost Pines Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (+12%)	1mo	$315,000	$190	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-53,497
• Equity at exit: $35,486

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-80,199
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78132

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 1136
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,570/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,106

Max offer price $216,771

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18	-5% $-64	+0% $-147	+5% $-229	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-298	-5% $-223	+0% $-147	+5% $-71	+10% $5
Rate	-1.0pp $-27	-0.5pp $-86	base $-147	+0.5pp $-208	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 W Schulz St Marion, TX	3.0	1.5	1109	$1,695	$1.53	6d	1	0.08mi
217 E Schulz St Marion, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,050	$1.14	0d	1	0.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $237,999 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,999 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,999 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,999 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,999 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,999 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,999 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,999 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,999 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $237,999 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $237,999 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,999 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,999 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,999 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $237,999 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $239,999 New 661-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$3,570
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,844
• − Management: −$1,844
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$5,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,413
• After-tax cash flow: $-348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 15 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a good condition. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Replace window treatments — Updated window treatments can make the home more appealing to renters.
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace window treatments — Updated window treatments can make the home more appealing to renters. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,953
• Household income: $135,315
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.57%
• Current HPI: 202.432
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $237,999 LERA
• 2026-04-21 Listed $239,999 LERA