Is 3791 Moon Hill Rd in Marion, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.3% cap rate and $-192/mo modeled cash flow at a $235,999 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 3791 Moon Hill Rd?

The modeled cap rate is 5.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,846/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 43.13

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +8.9/30.0
Schools +4.8/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
1% rule +2.8/10.0
DSCR +2.4/10.0
Rent growth +1.9/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$235,999

3791 Moon Hill Rd · Marion, TX 78132

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,483 sqft · SingleFamily · 126 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $159/sqft · 33% below area Est $354k · 33% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

The Hoffman - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

Walk-in closet
Open layout
En-suite bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $236k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (11.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (21.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $185k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Hernandez El (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 525 students, 65% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1528 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $184,568 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.78% ✗
Cap rate: 5.32%
Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
DSCR: 0.84
GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $354,362
List price: $235,999
Delta: -33.40%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3771 Moon Hill Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,483 (0%)	3mo	$213,999	$144	98
3747 Moon Hill Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,483 (0%)	3mo	$225,999	$152	97
918 Moonshine Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (+1%)	1mo	$244,999	$163	92
3755 Moon Hill Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-9%)	4mo	$209,999	$155	77
3751 Moon Hill Rd	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (+14%)	3mo	$225,999	$134	72
215 Harmons Way	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (+2%)	2mo	$319,500	$212	70
313 Hunter Ridge Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-3%)	10mo	$379,900	$265	51
306 Deerwood Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (-4%)	7mo	$376,500	$263	50
126 Hunter Ridge Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (+14%)	1mo	$429,000	$255	48
110 Hunter Ridge Rd	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,694 (+14%)	7mo	$350,000	$207	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -25.6%
Equity multiple: 0.16×
Total profit: $-55,830
Equity at exit: $35,188

10-year hold

IRR: -35.5%
Equity multiple: -0.29×
Total profit: $-85,093
Equity at exit: $20,405

Cash invested: $66,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 15 active · 15 under contract
Months of supply: 11.2 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $259,249 ($155/sqft)
Median days on market: 106 d
This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +54.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78132

Rents YoY: -2.3%
Active inventory: 1528
Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,846 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,238
Tax est. 1.5%: −$295 /mo · $3,540/yr
Insurance: −$98
HOA: −$19
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,089

Max offer price $208,238

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-110	+0% $-192	+5% $-273	+10% $-355
Rent	-10% $-338	-5% $-265	+0% $-192	+5% $-119	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-132	base $-192	+0.5pp $-253	+1.0pp $-315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $59,000
Closing costs: $7,080
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Harmons Way Unit 109 San Marcos, TX	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	103d	1	0.35mi
4334 Transportation Way San Marcos, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,515	$1.46	6d	16	0.76mi
618 El Rio St San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,972	$1.99	0d	24	0.79mi
405 Whitetail Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	139d	1	0.83mi
405 Whitetail Dr Unit A San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	110d	1	0.83mi
405 Whitetail Dr Unit B San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	83d	1	0.83mi
420 El Rio St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,713	$1.12	80d	1	0.87mi
425 El Rio St San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,937	$1.82	0d	26	0.94mi
144 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$1,975	$1.13	120d	1	1.02mi
208 Shugart St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,899	$1.22	94d	1	1.13mi
139 Spiny Lizard Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,899	$1.22	71d	1	1.16mi
502 Commercial Loop San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1222	$2,550	$2.09	4d	46	1.23mi
137 Rustic Glen Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,749	$1.58	43d	1	1.26mi
1166 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,695	$1.49	43d	1	1.33mi
1166 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,395	$1.23	10d	1	1.33mi
1158 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	43d	1	1.34mi
1121 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,795	$1.26	40d	1	1.41mi
250 Sage Meadows Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,950	$1.25	110d	1	1.41mi
1052 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,769	$1.36	1d	1	1.43mi
249 Sage Meadows Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,875	$1.28	10d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Down payment resources available
HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $112.50 semi-annuallyAssociation transfer fee $450

Exterior

Parking: 2-car garage
Utilities: Water system (GBRA)Sewer system (SHWSC)Natural gas supply: UnigasElectricity supply: NBUGarbage service: Frontier
Home design: New construction by Lennar
Construction: Slab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features: Brick, siding, and cement fiber exterior

Interior

Kitchen: Kitchen 14 x 10Stove/RangeDishwasher
Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 10Bedroom 3: 10 x 10Bedroom 4: 11 x 10Master bedroom: 11 x 13
Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsMaster bath with shower only and single vanity
Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Open floor planBreakfast barUtility room inside1 living areaAll bedrooms on lower levelWalk-in closetsLaundry room
Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry on main level

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-25

days on market $235,999 Active 126 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $235,999 Active 125 DOM
2026-08-23

statusdays on market $235,999 Active 124 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $235,999 Price Change 123 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $235,999 Price Change 122 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $235,999 Price Change 121 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $235,999 Price Change 120 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $235,999 Price Change 119 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $235,999 Price Change 118 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $235,999 Price Change 117 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $235,999 Price Change 116 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $235,999 Price Change 115 DOM
2026-08-13

pricedays on market $235,999 Price Change 114 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $215,999 Price Change 112 DOM
2026-08-10

price $215,999 Price Change 111 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $216,999 Price Change 111 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $216,999 Price Change 110 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $216,999 Price Change 109 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $216,999 Price Change 107 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $216,999 Price Change 106 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $216,999 Price Change 105 DOM
2026-08-03

pricedays on market $216,999 Price Change 104 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $218,999 Price Change 101 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $218,999 Price Change 99 DOM
2026-07-28

pricestatusdays on market $218,999 Price Change 98 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $238,999 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $238,999 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $238,999 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $238,999 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $238,999 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $238,999 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-18

statusdays on market $238,999 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $238,999 Price Change 87 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $238,999 Price Change 86 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $238,999 Price Change 85 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $238,999 Price Change 84 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $238,999 Price Change 83 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $238,999 Price Change 82 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $238,999 Price Change 81 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $238,999 Price Change 80 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $238,999 Price Change 79 DOM
2026-07-08

pricestatus $238,999 Price Change 77 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $237,999 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $237,999 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $237,999 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $237,999 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $237,999 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $237,999 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $237,999 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $237,999 Active 69 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $22,148
− Mortgage interest: −$13,220
− Property taxes: −$3,540
− Insurance: −$1,180
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,772
− Management: −$1,772
− HOA: −$228
− Depreciation: −$6,865
Taxable loss: −$6,429

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,543
After-tax cash flow: $-759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 15 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,415–$22,245 screening

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a good condition. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
Rental Replace window treatments — Updated window treatments can make the home more appealing to renters. ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: San Marcos CISD
NCES district ID: 4838970
Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
Median HH income: $34,538
Composite: 20.11/100
National rank: #8644
State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

Score: 66/100
State rank: #614
US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Comal County · 286,948 people
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 40,953
Household income: $135,315
Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 286,948 people
By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -139.57%
Current HPI: 202.432
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.32%
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-05-21 Price Changed $237,999 LERA
2026-04-21 Listed $239,999 LERA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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