2245 Beargrass Ave · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40218

$170,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,674 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1920 0.39 ac lot Est $290k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported by appraiser
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Cape Cod architectural style; Two stories; Built in 1920
• Construction: Brick construction; Concrete block foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Lot measures approximately 0.39 acres (100 x 167.5); Location of parking: garage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included (first floor)
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Gravity heating; Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit for heating and one for cooling
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Two closets; No basement; Dining room on the first floor; Kitchen on the first floor; Laundry on the first floor; First-floor primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Watterson Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #630 of 676 statewide, top 95%, 494 students, 70% FRL); Ramsey Middle (math 11% / reading 34%, grade F, #200 of 217 statewide, top 93%, 1,008 students, 62% FRL); Fern Creek High (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #199 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 1,688 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,342 (2.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.35%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,602
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2231 Beargrass Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,501 (-10%)	5mo	$260,000	$173	70
2224 Beargrass Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,450 (-13%)	9mo	$248,000	$171	66
6208 Cutter Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,849 (+10%)	2mo	$250,000	$135	57
6402 By Way Ln	0.27mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,850 (+10%)	12mo	$255,000	$138	52
4012 Crawford Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,529 (-9%)	7mo	$280,000	$183	47
2805 Klondike Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (+7%)	3mo	$325,000	$182	46
4000 White Plains Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+7%)	3mo	$291,000	$163	46
4206 Winter Park Dr	0.52mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,500 (-10%)	1mo	$350,000	$233	44
3805 Stigwood Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (-5%)	13mo	$267,000	$168	44
6008 Six Mile Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (-10%)	7mo	$295,000	$196	43
3916 Glen Oak Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,499 (-10%)	11mo	$340,000	$227	39
3926 Glen Oak Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,449 (-13%)	12mo	$215,000	$148	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-23,908
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-28,552
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40218

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,532/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $229	-5% $181	+0% $133	+5% $85	+10% $37
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $68	+0% $133	+5% $198	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $218	-0.5pp $176	base $133	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
226 Granvil Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	5d	1	0.41mi
279 Granvil Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1280	$1,625	$1.27	22d	1	0.49mi
4011 Crawford Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,895	$1.28	5d	1	0.52mi
2106 Buechel Bank Rd Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	1000	$1,234	$1.23	5d	7	0.53mi
4012 White Plains Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	2000	$2,200	$1.10	13d	1	0.64mi
2041 Shady Grove Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0–2.0	754	$1,238	$1.64	25d	4	0.67mi
7025 Bronner Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1050	$1,403	$1.34	13d	9	0.76mi
7105 Nachand Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1986	$2,000	$1.01	17d	1	0.80mi
4004 Carol Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,495	$1.30	17d	1	0.84mi
3931 Manner Dale Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	2090	$2,150	$1.03	17d	1	1.07mi
5706 Bannon Crossings Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1255	$2,000	$1.59	25d	1	1.18mi
3552 Lisbon Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1964	$1,895	$0.96	25d	1	1.35mi
5925 Brandon Dunes Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1516	$1,890	$1.25	25d	1	1.39mi
7008 Wildwood Cir #60 Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,299	$1.04	5d	1	1.44mi
3701 Hunsinger Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1777	$2,200	$1.24	5d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   status $170,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   status $170,000 Pending 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-05-20
   listed $170,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,532 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,532 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,532
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,184
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$284
• After-tax cash flow: $1,878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 33,736
• Household income: $58,811
• Rent vs Own: 50.5% rent · 49.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1590.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, India, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.23%
• Current HPI: 257.9528
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.47%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $170,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,532 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.