516 Route 9 Unit B-16 · Upper, NJ 08223

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 401 sqft · Manufactured · 123 Days on market

Built 1988 Poor condition $247/sqft · 32% below area Est $146k · 32% under $179/mo HOA · 15% of rent ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Due to a recent roof leak that caused interior damage, the seller has reduced the price to $99,000 and is offering the property as-is creating a great opportunity for buyers to purchase below market value and build equity. Your Affordable Shore Getaway Awaits at Oak Ridge Resort! Looking for an affordable vacation home near the Jersey Shore? Don’t miss this opportunity! At Oak Ridge Resort Condo Association, you own the land—no lot rent, just the perfect place to relax and enjoy resort-style living minutes from Ocean City and Sea Isle City beaches and boardwalks. Why choose Oak Ridge Resort? Skip the traffic—enjoy the pool while others wait for the islands. Resort-style amenities include a swimming pool, jacuzzi, clubhouse, playgrounds, boat yard and more, plus community activities like bocce ball, volleyball, pavilion events and a bathhouse with laundry. About Unit B-16: Prime location on a quiet, one-way street directly across from the new activity area. Previously updated with blue siding, luxury vinyl flooring and modern finishes. Spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, butcher block countertops and a large island. Comfortable 2-bedroom layout designed for easy shore living. Act quickly—once repairs begin, the price will be adjusted upward.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Playgrounds
• Swimming pool

Tags

• OWN THE LAND
• MINUTES FROM OCEAN CITY
• SWIMMING POOL
• JACUZZI
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUNDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($863/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Upper Township School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #151 of 472 in NJ (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 877 units permitted in Cape May County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cape May County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.11%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,382
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -32.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-11,336
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-3,457
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08223

• Home prices YoY: -14.9%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$179
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $179 · $2,148/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $99,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $99,000

    Show marketing remark (1298 chars)

    Due to a recent roof leak that caused interior damage, the seller has reduced the price to $99,000 and is offering the property as-is creating a great opportunity for buyers to purchase below market value and build equity. Your Affordable Shore Getaway Awaits at Oak Ridge Resort! Looking for an affordable vacation home near the Jersey Shore? Don’t miss this opportunity! At Oak Ridge Resort Condo Association, you own the land—no lot rent, just the perfect place to relax and enjoy resort-style living minutes from Ocean City and Sea Isle City beaches and boardwalks. Why choose Oak Ridge Resort? Skip the traffic—enjoy the pool while others wait for the islands. Resort-style amenities include a swimming pool, jacuzzi, clubhouse, playgrounds, boat yard and more, plus community activities like bocce ball, volleyball, pavilion events and a bathhouse with laundry. About Unit B-16: Prime location on a quiet, one-way street directly across from the new activity area. Previously updated with blue siding, luxury vinyl flooring and modern finishes. Spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, butcher block countertops and a large island. Comfortable 2-bedroom layout designed for easy shore living. Act quickly—once repairs begin, the price will be adjusted upward.

16. 2026-04-29
    price $99,000 1298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1298 chars)

    Due to a recent roof leak that caused interior damage, the seller has reduced the price to $99,000 and is offering the property as-is creating a great opportunity for buyers to purchase below market value and build equity. Your Affordable Shore Getaway Awaits at Oak Ridge Resort! Looking for an affordable vacation home near the Jersey Shore? Don’t miss this opportunity! At Oak Ridge Resort Condo Association, you own the land—no lot rent, just the perfect place to relax and enjoy resort-style living minutes from Ocean City and Sea Isle City beaches and boardwalks. Why choose Oak Ridge Resort? Skip the traffic—enjoy the pool while others wait for the islands. Resort-style amenities include a swimming pool, jacuzzi, clubhouse, playgrounds, boat yard and more, plus community activities like bocce ball, volleyball, pavilion events and a bathhouse with laundry. About Unit B-16: Prime location on a quiet, one-way street directly across from the new activity area. Previously updated with blue siding, luxury vinyl flooring and modern finishes. Spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, butcher block countertops and a large island. Comfortable 2-bedroom layout designed for easy shore living. Act quickly—once repairs begin, the price will be adjusted upward.

17. 2026-04-24
    price $111,000

    Show marketing remark (1298 chars)

    Due to a recent roof leak that caused interior damage, the seller has reduced the price to $99,000 and is offering the property as-is creating a great opportunity for buyers to purchase below market value and build equity. Your Affordable Shore Getaway Awaits at Oak Ridge Resort! Looking for an affordable vacation home near the Jersey Shore? Don’t miss this opportunity! At Oak Ridge Resort Condo Association, you own the land—no lot rent, just the perfect place to relax and enjoy resort-style living minutes from Ocean City and Sea Isle City beaches and boardwalks. Why choose Oak Ridge Resort? Skip the traffic—enjoy the pool while others wait for the islands. Resort-style amenities include a swimming pool, jacuzzi, clubhouse, playgrounds, boat yard and more, plus community activities like bocce ball, volleyball, pavilion events and a bathhouse with laundry. About Unit B-16: Prime location on a quiet, one-way street directly across from the new activity area. Previously updated with blue siding, luxury vinyl flooring and modern finishes. Spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, butcher block countertops and a large island. Comfortable 2-bedroom layout designed for easy shore living. Act quickly—once repairs begin, the price will be adjusted upward.

18. 2026-04-24
    price $111,000 1298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1298 chars)

    Due to a recent roof leak that caused interior damage, the seller has reduced the price to $99,000 and is offering the property as-is creating a great opportunity for buyers to purchase below market value and build equity. Your Affordable Shore Getaway Awaits at Oak Ridge Resort! Looking for an affordable vacation home near the Jersey Shore? Don’t miss this opportunity! At Oak Ridge Resort Condo Association, you own the land—no lot rent, just the perfect place to relax and enjoy resort-style living minutes from Ocean City and Sea Isle City beaches and boardwalks. Why choose Oak Ridge Resort? Skip the traffic—enjoy the pool while others wait for the islands. Resort-style amenities include a swimming pool, jacuzzi, clubhouse, playgrounds, boat yard and more, plus community activities like bocce ball, volleyball, pavilion events and a bathhouse with laundry. About Unit B-16: Prime location on a quiet, one-way street directly across from the new activity area. Previously updated with blue siding, luxury vinyl flooring and modern finishes. Spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, butcher block countertops and a large island. Comfortable 2-bedroom layout designed for easy shore living. Act quickly—once repairs begin, the price will be adjusted upward.

19. 2026-02-13
    listed $124,900 Active 1298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1298 chars)

    Due to a recent roof leak that caused interior damage, the seller has reduced the price to $99,000 and is offering the property as-is creating a great opportunity for buyers to purchase below market value and build equity. Your Affordable Shore Getaway Awaits at Oak Ridge Resort! Looking for an affordable vacation home near the Jersey Shore? Don’t miss this opportunity! At Oak Ridge Resort Condo Association, you own the land—no lot rent, just the perfect place to relax and enjoy resort-style living minutes from Ocean City and Sea Isle City beaches and boardwalks. Why choose Oak Ridge Resort? Skip the traffic—enjoy the pool while others wait for the islands. Resort-style amenities include a swimming pool, jacuzzi, clubhouse, playgrounds, boat yard and more, plus community activities like bocce ball, volleyball, pavilion events and a bathhouse with laundry. About Unit B-16: Prime location on a quiet, one-way street directly across from the new activity area. Previously updated with blue siding, luxury vinyl flooring and modern finishes. Spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, butcher block countertops and a large island. Comfortable 2-bedroom layout designed for easy shore living. Act quickly—once repairs begin, the price will be adjusted upward.

20. 2026-02-12
    listed $124,900 Active
21. 2025-08-15
    historical Withdrawn/Temp Off Market
22. 2025-08-15
    historical
23. 2025-05-24
    price $124,900
24. 2025-05-23
    price $124,900
25. 2025-04-18
    price $139,900
26. 2025-04-18
    price $139,900
27. 2025-03-27
    listed $154,900 Active
28. 2025-03-26
    listed $154,900 Active
29. 2024-09-17
    price $144,900
30. 2024-09-01
    price $159,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,136
• − Management: −$1,136
• − HOA: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$623
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$149
• After-tax cash flow: $1,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates, including roof replacement and interior repairs, to become move-in ready. Significant value can be added through these improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage
• Major exterior siding — Significant damage
• Major interior ceiling — Significant damage
• Major kitchen cabinets — Significant damage
• Major bathroom fixtures — Significant damage
• Major flooring — Significant damage
• Major HVAC system — Significant damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Critical to safety and value
• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both interior ceiling repair — Restores functionality and value
• Both kitchen cabinets replacement — Modernizes and increases value
• Both bathroom fixtures replacement — Modernizes and increases value
• Both flooring replacement — Modernizes and increases value
• Both HVAC system replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior ceiling · Significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · Significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · Significant damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — Critical to safety and value ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both interior ceiling repair — Restores functionality and value ↑
• Both kitchen cabinets replacement — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both bathroom fixtures replacement — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416650
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $78,141
• Composite: 43.29/100
• National rank: #3040
• State rank: #151 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Upper

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marmora, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 4,063

Population outlook (Cape May County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,234 people
• By 2030: 84,144 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 75,146 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 67,389 · -23.6%
• By 2075: 55,732 · -36.8%
• By 2100: 44,972 · -49.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cape May

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 39.7% · R 58.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.9 2016: R+19.9 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.53%
• Current HPI: 385.4379
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-38.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $99,000 CMCMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $111,000 CMCMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $111,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $124,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $124,900 CMCMLS
• 2025-08-15 Delisted — CMCMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $124,900 CMCMLS
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $124,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $139,900 CMCMLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-26 Listed $154,900 CMCMLS
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed $144,900 CMCMLS
• 2024-09-01 Price Changed $159,900 CMCMLS