210 Holly Dr · Natchez, MS 39120

$115,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1955 8,712 sqft lot $111/sqft · at area comps Est $113k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You could own this three bedroom one bath home in Eastbrook for less than you are paying rent. Kitchen with gas range and refrigerator. Fenced backyard.

Key facts

• Fenced backyard
• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.72%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,488
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 1.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
811 Kenwood Ln	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,005 (-3%)	3mo	$105,000	$104	88
209 Holly Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (0%)	20mo	$109,500	$106	77
1301 Westwood Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0	965 (-6%)	2mo	$109,000	$113	70
3703 Sherwood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+7%)	13mo	$106,000	$96	62
302 Holly Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+7%)	24mo	$118,500	$108	62
1306 Eastwood Rd	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,061 (+3%)	12mo	$90,000	$85	58
8 Oakwood Ln	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,076 (+4%)	13mo	$99,000	$92	58
12 Maplewood Ln	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-12%)	2mo	$99,500	$109	58
25 Maplewood Ln	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	951 (-8%)	19mo	$95,000	$100	48
1501 Eastwood Rd	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	897 (-13%)	5mo	$54,500	$61	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,396
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $26,997
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,239/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $955

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $347	+0% $315	+5% $282	+10% $249
Rent	-10% $208	-5% $261	+0% $315	+5% $368	+10% $421
Rate	-1.0pp $372	-0.5pp $344	base $315	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $115,000 Active 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    You could own this three bedroom one bath home in Eastbrook for less than you are paying rent. Kitchen with gas range and refrigerator. Fenced backyard.

17. 2005-10-07
    soldstatus
18. 2004-01-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,239 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,239 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,239
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,299
• − Management: −$1,299
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,036
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$489
• After-tax cash flow: $3,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchez, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $115,000 MLSU
• 2005-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-01-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,239 · +20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.