14117 Baikal Manor Dr · Texas City, TX 77510

$312,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,063 sqft · Land · 70 Days on market

Built 2025 7,002 sqft lot $125/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

READY NOW! This beautiful home is the Boone plan, with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2,063 sq ft. It has a stunning open-concept layout, a warm and inviting interior, and a high, sloped ceiling, making it perfect for those who love entertaining. The spacious living areas, including the kitchen, dining, and family room, are great for gatherings of all sizes. The foyer leads to 3 additional bedrooms and bathrooms. The owner's suite features a bay window with ample space and natural lighting. The owner's bathroom is a luxurious space to enjoy and relax. It will have a walk-in shower, soaking tub, double sink, and an enclosed toilet room. The covered patio is perfect for enjoying your private backya

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Bay window
• High sloped ceiling

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• HIGH SLOPED CEILING
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• BAY WINDOW
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• SOAKING TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Principle Management Group; Annual association fee covers recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Faces northwest; Single-level entry; Full ownership
• Construction: Built in 2025; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built by M/I Homes
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) — 17x15; Bedroom (first level) — 12x11; Bedroom (first level) — 12x11; Bedroom (first level) — 12x11
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen/dining combo; Energy Star qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $313k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $313k).
• Recommended offer: $294k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elva C Lobit Middle (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 582 students, 52% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $294,210 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.90%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-18,682
• Equity at exit: $46,668

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $24,868
• Equity at exit: $27,062

Cash invested: $87,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,641
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,451/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,554

Max offer price $312,990

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $681	-5% $592	+0% $504	+5% $415	+10% $326
Rent	-10% $252	-5% $378	+0% $504	+5% $630	+10% $756
Rate	-1.0pp $661	-0.5pp $583	base $504	+0.5pp $423	+1.0pp $340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,248
• Closing costs: $9,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	2d	1	0.20mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	44d	1	0.86mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	4d	2	1.01mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	22d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   price $312,990
3. 2026-03-16
   price $318,990
4. 2026-02-09
   listed $324,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,451 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,728 · $477/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,277/yr (+$356/mo · 294.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,532
• − Property taxes: −$1,451
• − Insurance: −$1,565
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,064
• − Management: −$3,064
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$9,105
• Taxable income: $1,017
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$244
• After-tax cash flow: $5,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• City population: 49,936
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $312,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $318,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $324,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+19.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,451 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.