689 James · Seven Points, TX 75143

$25,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1976 4,356 sqft lot $27/sqft · 74% below area ↓ 38% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY JUST A FEW BLOCKS FROM BEAUTIFUL CEDAR CREEK LAKE. WOULD MAKE A GREAT STARTER HOME OR RENTAL PROPERTY. LOCATED MINUTES AWAY FROM GUN BARREL CITY AND HWY 175 FOR COMMUTING TO DALLAS.

Key facts

• Cedar creek lake
• Hwy 175
• Rental property

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• CEDAR CREEK LAKE
• RENTAL PROPERTY
• GUN BARREL CITY
• HWY 175

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $828 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.0% vs local median 3.1% in Seven Points — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,063 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Kemp ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #605 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 141.97%
• DSCR: 7.32
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,777
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: -73.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1865 County Road 2105	0.13mi	2/1.0	792 (-14%)	1mo	$40,000	$51	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.96×
• Total profit: $48,710
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.77×
• Total profit: $110,401
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75143

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $333/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $828

Break-even live

Break-even rent $214

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $842	-5% $835	+0% $828	+5% $821	+10% $814
Rent	-10% $728	-5% $778	+0% $828	+5% $878	+10% $928
Rate	-1.0pp $841	-0.5pp $834	base $828	+0.5pp $822	+1.0pp $815

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $25,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-01-14
    listed $25,000 Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY JUST A FEW BLOCKS FROM BEAUTIFUL CEDAR CREEK LAKE. WOULD MAKE A GREAT STARTER HOME OR RENTAL PROPERTY. LOCATED MINUTES AWAY FROM GUN BARREL CITY AND HWY 175 FOR COMMUTING TO DALLAS.

16. 2023-09-22
    historical
17. 2023-08-14
    price $19,000
18. 2023-07-17
    status Active
19. 2023-05-08
    status Pending
20. 2023-03-20
    listed $40,000 Active
21. 2023-03-03
    soldstatus
22. 1995-05-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $333 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $458 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 37.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$333
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $10,141
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,434
• After-tax cash flow: $7,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kemp ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825320
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,788
• Composite: 26.37/100
• National rank: #7233
• State rank: #605 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seven Points

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #18899

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,676

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.99%
• Current HPI: 332.57
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-37.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $25,000 NTREIS
• 2023-09-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-08-14 Price Changed $19,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-17 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-05-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-03-20 Listed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2023-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $333 · +37.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.