227 Road 5821 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$210,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · Land · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 6,534 sqft lot $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Model 1804-2 A1 - Madison

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Houston El Norte POA; Annual association fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction; Single-family design; Living area approximately 1,804; Entry level includes first and second floors
• Construction: Built in 2026; Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second level (13 x 11); Bedroom on first level (11 x 10); Bedroom on second level (12 x 11); Bedroom on second level (12 x 10); Additional bedroom (first level) — 11 x 8
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave

🏗️ New construction. The $210,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $179,501.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $211k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pine Burr El (691 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,016 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.47%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,501
• List price: $210,990
• Delta: 17.54%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,956
• Equity at exit: $26,764

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $47,543
• Equity at exit: $15,520

Cash invested: $50,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $572/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $179,501

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $557	-5% $506	+0% $456	+5% $405	+10% $354
Rent	-10% $296	-5% $376	+0% $456	+5% $535	+10% $615
Rate	-1.0pp $546	-0.5pp $501	base $456	+0.5pp $409	+1.0pp $362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,875
• Closing costs: $5,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	13d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,990 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,990 Active 5 DOM

   Show marketing remark (25 chars)

   Model 1804-2 A1 - Madison

3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,990 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,990 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $210,990 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,990 Active 195 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,990 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,990 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $210,990 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,990 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 683-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,990 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,990 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,990 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $212,990 1102-char remark

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16. 2026-05-14
    price $212,990 25-char remark

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17. 2026-04-29
    price $216,990 25-char remark

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18. 2026-04-22
    price $216,990 1102-char remark
19. 2026-03-25
    price $219,990 1102-char remark
20. 2026-03-11
    price $224,990 1102-char remark
21. 2026-03-04
    price $247,990 1102-char remark

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22. 2026-03-04
    price $247,990 25-char remark

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    Model 1804-2 A1 - Madison

23. 2026-02-27
    price $244,990 1102-char remark

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24. 2026-02-27
    price $244,990 25-char remark

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25. 2026-02-12
    price $247,990 1102-char remark
26. 2026-02-11
    price $247,990 25-char remark

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27. 2025-12-03
    price $249,988 25-char remark

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28. 2025-12-02
    price $1,000 25-char remark

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29. 2025-11-27
    price $249,988 25-char remark

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30. 2025-11-27
    status Active 25-char remark

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31. 2025-11-26
    listed $249,988 Active 1102-char remark
32. 2025-05-08
    historical 25-char remark

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33. 2025-05-02
    price $240,990 25-char remark

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34. 2025-04-22
    price $239,990 25-char remark

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35. 2025-03-28
    listed $204,990 Active 25-char remark

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ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $572 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,861 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,289/yr (+$274/mo · 574.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,055
• − Property taxes: −$572
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,222
• Taxable income: $2,699
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$648
• After-tax cash flow: $4,820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $204,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $210,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $210,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $210,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $212,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $212,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $216,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $216,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $247,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $247,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $249,988 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $1,000 Zillow
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $249,988 Zillow
• 2025-11-27 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-26 Listed $249,988 HARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $240,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-28 Listed $204,990 Zillow

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $572 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.