602 Hopkins St · Buffalo, NY 14220

$164,999

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1900 3,240 sqft lot $134/sqft · 22% below area Est $211k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful South Buffalo home that offers 3 bedroom 1 bath. There is so much to like in this South Buffalo bungalow such as hardwood floors in the 1st floor family and dining rooms. As well as a backyard that offers privacy in a South Buffalo neighborhood that is a short distance to many attractions like Cazenovia Park, Red Jacket River Front Park, Tesla Factory, Botanical Gardens, Tift Nature Preserve and Buffalo Harbor State Park. This cute bungalow is ready for you with newer mechanicals (furnace, hot water tank, sump pump and roof). Owner will review offers as they come.

Key facts

• 3,240 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $507 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $165k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,099 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.61%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,428
• List price: $164,999
• Delta: -21.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Houston St	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (+10%)	6mo	$241,000	$179	64
33 Trowbridge St	0.25mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,272 (+3%)	18mo	$81,000	$64	63
81 Sirret St	0.17mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	12mo	$212,000	$158	61
153 Crystal Ave	0.64mi	5/2.5	1,200 (-3%)	10mo	$280,000	$233	52
859 Tifft St	0.56mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (+1%)	19mo	$262,650	$210	49
190 Crystal Ave	0.65mi	5/2.0	1,336 (+8%)	6mo	$150,000	$112	47
98 Crystal Ave	0.57mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,290 (+5%)	16mo	$240,000	$186	43
152 Como Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,134 (-8%)	7mo	$211,000	$186	38
129 Crystal Ave	0.62mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	13mo	$240,000	$179	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $14,910
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $96,815
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $353/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,290

Max offer price $164,999

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $600	-5% $554	+0% $507	+5% $460	+10% $216
Rent	-10% $354	-5% $431	+0% $507	+5% $583	+10% $660
Rate	-1.0pp $590	-0.5pp $549	base $507	+0.5pp $464	+1.0pp $421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,999 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,999 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,999 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,999 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,999 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,999 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,999 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,999 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,999 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,999 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,999 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,999 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,999 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,999 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    listed $164,999 Active 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Beautiful South Buffalo home that offers 3 bedroom 1 bath. There is so much to like in this South Buffalo bungalow such as hardwood floors in the 1st floor family and dining rooms. As well as a backyard that offers privacy in a South Buffalo neighborhood that is a short distance to many attractions like Cazenovia Park, Red Jacket River Front Park, Tesla Factory, Botanical Gardens, Tift Nature Preserve and Buffalo Harbor State Park. This cute bungalow is ready for you with newer mechanicals (furnace, hot water tank, sump pump and roof). Owner will review offers as they come.

16. 2024-02-24
    historical
17. 2024-02-20
    historical
18. 2023-11-01
    listed $169,000 Active
19. 2020-01-30
    soldstatus $100,700 Closed Sale or Rented
20. 2020-01-30
    soldstatus $95,000
21. 2019-11-16
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
22. 2019-11-03
    status Active
23. 2019-11-02
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
24. 2019-10-17
    listed $94,900 Active
25. 2019-04-01
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $353 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,571 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,218/yr (+$101/mo · 344.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$353
• − Insurance: −$1,491
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,585
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$860
• After-tax cash flow: $5,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+816.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $164,999 WNYREIS
• 2024-02-24 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-02-20 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-11-01 Listed $169,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-30 Sold (MLS) $100,700 WNYREIS
• 2019-11-16 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-11-03 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2019-11-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-10-17 Listed $94,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $353 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.