7407 Sea Island Ln · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34201

$499,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2005 9,692 sqft lot Est $584k · 14% under $112/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. MOVE-IN READY RESORT LIVING – AVAILABLE NOW! Don't wait to build—start living the Florida lifestyle today in this stunning 2,117 sq. ft. 3-bedroom plus den home in the highly sought-after University Place! Freshly priced at $499,900, this Neal Communities Burgundy floor plan is completely move-in ready and packed with luxury upgrades for a buyer who wants to close fast and settle in immediately. Why You Can Move Right In: Gorgeous Gourmet Kitchen: No need to renovate. You get immediate access to cherry cabinetry, stunning granite countertops, a premium Natural gas stovetop, built-in oven, and a sleek stainless-steel vented hood. Versatile

Key facts

• Lake views
• Gourmet kitchen
• Extended garage

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• SCREENED IN LANAI
• LAKE VIEWS
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• EXTENDED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment; CDD present; Homestead exemption indicated; Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,271; Annual tax amount listed (2025): $2,763
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Sunstate Management; Monthly HOA fee of $112; HOA fee includes common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves, management and recreational facilities; Community amenities: fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, playground, park, recreation facilities; Deed restrictions; buyer approval required; fence restrictions; association recreation owned; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community; Community security (HOA)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story home; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with living area recorded at 2,116 sq ft
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Street dead-end lot; Lakefront with lake view

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $472k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $409k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $409k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert Willis Elementary School (math 83% / reading 79%, grade A+, #95 of 2,144 statewide, top 5%, 765 students, 22% FRL); Braden River Middle School (math 54% / reading 47%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 810 students, 58% FRL); Braden River High School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #201 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 1,774 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $409,459 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $584,016
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8121 Indigo Ridge Ter	0.15mi	3/2.0	2,073 (-2%)	1mo	$570,000	$275	88
8019 Indigo Ridge Ter	0.20mi	3/2.0	2,073 (-2%)	4mo	$572,000	$276	83
7707 Ashley Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,027 (-4%)	1mo	$494,304	$244	80
7215 San Miguel Cv	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,061 (-3%)	9mo	$640,000	$311	74
7906 Ashley Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,135 (+1%)	7mo	$575,000	$269	71
7528 Ascot Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,146 (+1%)	5mo	$712,500	$332	69
7340 Saint Georges Way	0.26mi	3/2.5	2,346 (+11%)	1mo	$550,000	$234	67
7305 Saint Georges Way	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (-6%)	8mo	$489,000	$247	61
7105 Kensington Ct	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,200 (+4%)	3mo	$637,500	$290	58
6874 74th Street Cir E	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,960 (-7%)	6mo	$410,000	$209	53
7918 Edmonston Cir	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,314 (+9%)	0mo	$640,000	$277	45
7804 Edmonston Cir	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,352 (+11%)	6mo	$690,000	$293	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-61,375
• Equity at exit: $106,144

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-39,324
• Equity at exit: $99,506

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34201

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,095 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$452 /mo · $5,419/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$112
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$860
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,295

Max offer price $471,872

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $-17	+0% $-159	+5% $-300	+10% $-442
Rent	-10% $-482	-5% $-320	+0% $-159	+5% $3	+10% $165
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $-32	base $-159	+0.5pp $-288	+1.0pp $-420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7135 Kensington Ct University Park, FL	2.0	2.0	2208	$7,000	$3.17	25d	1	0.52mi
6945 74th Street Cir E Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.5	2930	$3,300	$1.13	18d	1	0.56mi
8911 Manor Loop #205 Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,950	$1.31	23d	1	0.65mi
9405 Boxthorn Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2669	$6,900	$2.59	5d	1	0.87mi
6642 Tailfeather Way Unit Available Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	25d	1	0.94mi
6718 Virginia Xing University Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1721	$5,250	$3.05	25d	1	0.97mi
7138 Cedar Hollow Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1406	$2,000	$1.42	18d	1	1.06mi
7224 Cedar Hollow Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1406	$2,200	$1.56	25d	1	1.13mi
6437 Brook Village Cv Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$2,325	$2.05	3d	13	1.15mi
7101 Victoria Cir University Park, FL	3.0	2.5	2254	$3,900	$1.73	25d	1	1.17mi
6380 Rookery Cir Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2633	$3,450	$1.31	18d	1	1.18mi
6372 Rookery Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$4,300	$2.32	25d	1	1.20mi
7151 83rd Dr E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1596	$2,095	$1.31	18d	1	1.28mi
6343 Rookery Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2099	$2,700	$1.29	25d	1	1.28mi
9910 Laurel Valley Avenue Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2379	$4,500	$1.89	18d	1	1.29mi
7711 Whitebridge Gln University Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1609	$2,500	$1.55	25d	1	1.30mi
6496 Rookery Cir Unit Available Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2887	$3,500	$1.21	25d	1	1.36mi
7911 Whitebridge Gln University Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1721	$6,500	$3.78	25d	1	1.40mi
7710 Lake Vista Ct Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1762	$2,950	$1.67	25d	1	1.42mi
6251 Wingspan Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,300	$1.53	25d	1	1.44mi
7005 Stanhope Pl University Park, FL	4.0	3.0	2846	$9,000	$3.16	25d	1	1.45mi
6914 Stanhope Pl University Park, FL	3.0	4.0	2951	$8,000	$2.71	5d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $112 · $1,344/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $499,900 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $499,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   status $499,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    status $499,900 Pending 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 687-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $499,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,419 · $452/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,419 · $452/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$5,419
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,931
• − Management: −$3,931
• − HOA: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$10,534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,528
• After-tax cash flow: $624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 52,177
• Population (ZIP): 3,993

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Current HPI: 173.9689
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-79.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $499,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $489,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $499,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $539,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-21 Listed $595,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $2,431,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,419 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.