827 Shawnee Trl · Redding, CA 96003

$69,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 85 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1983 Good condition $48/sqft · 19% below area Est $86k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.6

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained home on a beautiful space in Mountain Shadows Mobile Home Park. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home has a large open floor plan ready for you to call home!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Dual pane windows
• Built 1983

Tags

• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• COVERED PORCH
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $513 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 3.4% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shasta Lake (math 27% / reading 36%, grade F, #816 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 616 students, 74% FRL); Central Valley High (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 625 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gateway Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,859 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.87%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,500
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -19.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4555 Underwood Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$99,000	$69	81
301 Sapwood Dr #280	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$65,900	$46	77
448 Red Cedar Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$90,000	$63	77
304 Lime Ct #32	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$89,999	$62	74
4578 Chippewa Ln #285	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	0mo	$87,000	$65	71
4521 White River Dr	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-2%)	0mo	$104,000	$74	69
4719 Maple Trl	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+6%)	4mo	$181,500	$119	64
4547 Hickory Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	2mo	$130,000	$83	63
458 Balsawood Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$60,000	$45	60
4532 Hardwood Blvd #195	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+11%)	4mo	$76,000	$48	60
4672 Underwood Dr #284	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$84,000	$67	57
362 Lemon Dr #24	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	4mo	$76,100	$61	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $25,384
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $81,136
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.7 mo (38%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $87,450 ($67/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -11.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $604

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $537	+0% $513	+5% $489	+10% $465
Rent	-10% $414	-5% $464	+0% $513	+5% $563	+10% $612
Rate	-1.0pp $548	-0.5pp $531	base $513	+0.5pp $495	+1.0pp $477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4296 Clay St Unit 17 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	70d	1	0.02mi
4490 Alder St Unit C Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	70d	1	0.17mi
400 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,310	$1.46	62d	1	0.23mi
636 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,010	$2.04	62d	8	0.30mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	93d	1	0.50mi
150 Masonic Ave Unit 1 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	62d	1	0.54mi
170 Masonic Ave #4 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	62d	1	0.54mi
701 Redwood Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1163	$1,820	$1.56	62d	1	0.68mi
4288 Bradley Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	70d	1	0.71mi
5391 Stonethrow Ct Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	93d	1	0.94mi
251 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,475	$1.95	62d	1	1.01mi
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	93d	1	1.03mi
500 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1282	$2,135	$1.66	62d	4	1.44mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carportGuest parking1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in a park (mobile home)
• Construction: Aluminum sidingAluminum skirtingMetal roofPillar/post/pier foundationModel: United StatesLocated in Mountain Shadows park
• Exterior features: Awning-covered patio/porchDeckLevel lotAsphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Fully equipped kitchen with range, oven, microwave, dishwasher, and refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooringCarpet
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningForced air heating
• Interior features: DishwasherDryerMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorWasherOvenNo fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $69,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $69,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $69,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $69,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $69,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $69,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $69,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $69,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $69,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $69,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $69,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $69,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $69,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $69,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $69,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $69,000 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $69,000 Active 60 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $69,000 Active 59 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $69,000 Active 58 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $69,000 Active 57 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $72,000 Active 56 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $72,000 Active 55 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $72,000 Active 54 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $72,000 Active 53 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $72,000 Active 52 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $72,000 Active 51 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $72,000 Active 50 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $72,000 Active 49 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $72,000 Active 48 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $72,000 Active 47 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $72,000 Active 46 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $72,000 Active 45 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $72,000 Active 44 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $72,000 Active 43 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $72,000 Active 42 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $75,000 Active 40 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $75,000 Active 38 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $75,000 Active 37 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $75,000 Active 29 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $79,000 Active 26 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,000 Active 25 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 24 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $5,378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,291
• After-tax cash flow: $4,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This mobile home is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed to maximize its value. It's located in a well-maintained park with amenities and a clean exterior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value. ↑
• Both Update kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizes the space and adds value. ↑
• Both Install new bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and appeal. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Buckeye School Of The Arts F CA #1,157/1,571 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 High Central Valley High C- CA #256/1,170 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 179,231 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carportGuest parking1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in a park (mobile home)
• Construction: Aluminum sidingAluminum skirtingMetal roofPillar/post/pier foundationModel: United StatesLocated in Mountain Shadows park
• Exterior features: Awning-covered patio/porchDeckLevel lotAsphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Fully equipped kitchen with range, oven, microwave, dishwasher, and refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooringCarpet
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioningForced air heating
• Interior features: DishwasherDryerMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorWasherOvenNo fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

Price history

+134.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $75,000 SAOR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $79,000 SAOR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $79,000 SAOR
• 2019-09-05 Sold (MLS) $55,000 SAOR
• 2019-07-01 Listed $57,000 SAOR
• 2014-06-26 Sold (MLS) $35,000 SAOR
• 2014-02-01 Listed $32,000 SAOR