827 Shawnee Trl · Redding, CA 96003

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition $52/sqft · 18% below area Est $91k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained home on a beautiful space in Mountain Shadows Mobile Home Park. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home has a large open floor plan ready for you to call home! CB734

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Dual pane windows
• Parking

Tags

• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• COVERED PORCH
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Guest parking; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in a park (mobile home)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Aluminum skirting; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Model: United States; Located in Mountain Shadows park
• Exterior features: Awning-covered patio/porch; Deck; Level lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Fully equipped kitchen with range, oven, microwave, dishwasher, and refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Washer; Oven; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.84%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,297
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -17.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4555 Underwood Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$99,000	$69	82
4587 Hardwood Blvd Sp#202 Blvd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$95,000	$66	80
301 Sapwood Dr #280	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$65,900	$46	79
323 Sapwood Dr Sp# 279 Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$89,000	$62	78
1350 Aztec Path #229	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+1%)	6mo	$95,000	$65	74
4649 Underwood Dr #257	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	4mo	$75,000	$49	71
4719 Maple Trl	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+6%)	3mo	$181,500	$119	66
458 Balsawood Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$60,000	$45	62
4532 Hardwood Blvd #195	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+11%)	3mo	$76,000	$48	62
899 Tuberose Trl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	5mo	$99,180	$64	61
362 Lemon Dr #24	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$76,100	$61	49
470 Brushwood Dr #139	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (+13%)	6mo	$98,000	$60	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $41,765
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $121,315
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4296 Clay St Unit 17 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	20d	1	0.02mi
4490 Alder St Unit C Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	20d	1	0.17mi
400 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,310	$1.46	13d	1	0.23mi
636 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,010	$2.04	13d	8	0.30mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.50mi
150 Masonic Ave Unit 1 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	13d	1	0.54mi
170 Masonic Ave #4 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	13d	1	0.54mi
701 Redwood Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1163	$1,820	$1.56	13d	1	0.68mi
4288 Bradley Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	20d	1	0.71mi
5391 Stonethrow Ct Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	43d	1	0.94mi
251 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,475	$1.95	13d	1	1.01mi
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	43d	1	1.03mi
500 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1282	$2,135	$1.66	13d	4	1.44mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $79,000 Active
18. 2026-05-14
    listed $79,000 Active 341-char remark
19. 2019-09-05
    soldstatus $55,000

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Well maintained home on a beautiful space in Mountain Shadows Mobile Home Park. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home has a large open floor plan ready for you to call home! CB734

20. 2019-07-01
    listed $57,000

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Well maintained home on a beautiful space in Mountain Shadows Mobile Home Park. This 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home has a large open floor plan ready for you to call home! CB734

21. 2014-06-26
    soldstatus $35,000
22. 2014-02-01
    listed $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $8,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,045
• After-tax cash flow: $7,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed to maximize its value. It's located in a well-maintained park with amenities and a clean exterior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value.
• Both Update kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizes the space and adds value.
• Both Install new bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value. ↑
• Both Update kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizes the space and adds value. ↑
• Both Install new bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+134.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $75,000 SAOR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $79,000 SAOR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $79,000 SAOR
• 2019-09-05 Sold (MLS) $55,000 SAOR
• 2019-07-01 Listed $57,000 SAOR
• 2014-06-26 Sold (MLS) $35,000 SAOR
• 2014-02-01 Listed $32,000 SAOR